Bulls are really exhausted and I'd recommend you to buy some short contracts. There too many many long positions are opened, so bears have a big liquidity that bulls don't.

This is really hard to judge but theres a number of signs to the upside.  With us above 50 day average and also putting in a series of rising lower highs, it seems to be a very good challenge to the 4000 to 4500 doorway area.     That area itself can be resistance by itself enough to send us back down but also its entry to the bigger challenge of approaching 6000.    I'm not sure how to dismiss either possibility as occurring right now but just has to be said it looks to be positive momentum to me.   

Yes the bigger picture is a declining 200 day average and that obvious negative long term but its not really challenged that for a while.   Fall far enough and theres space for a rise like this to occur.   How much its linked to news or anticipation of events I'm not sure but price alone looks ok and plenty doubters is ironically good

here is an update for the last set up





we did close below the trend line mentioned, and now heading low with almost no support all the way down to the trend line in green , which i have not drawn in the last post.

the support of this up trend line is somewhere around 3650$ , it's a strong support on the daily, and i will be monitoring the 4h chart when we approach that level,  the 3450-70$ however is a stronger support and that's where i would set my buy order without really having to monitor price actions, because that's where the 200 MA sits as well, so chances are we get a wick down to that level.

so i will be closing my short positions as we approach 3700$ and slowly opening longs as we approach 3650.

i will also be paying a close attention to the 200 weekly SMA, it's now the strongest defense line for the bulls, should it be broken i will be entering heavy short positions as i do expect the fall will be a big one if that would happen.