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Topic: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？ (Read 223 times)

Clearstream (OP)

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How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 10:32:10 AM
Last edit: March 10, 2019, 03:31:12 AM by Clearstream

Will BTC continue to fall? Does it have no bottom? I think BTC has a bottom. How to calculate the bottom of it? I have a little thought about it.
If the price of bitcoin is lower than the mining cost of miners, then the miners are greatly reduced. BTC will be attacked by 51%. It is not accepted for all Bitcoin holders. Especially whales.

Setting: Number of bitcoin miners = A.
(Bitcoin is attacked by 51%) The minimum number of miners = B （B is not a constant. It is dynamic）

When A=B, the bitcoin price is close to Hard bottom.

Bitcoin exists at the bottom of Soft. Usually the bottom of the soft is determined by the market.
Soft bottom > Hard bottom

Disclaimer: The above method is used for research. It does not guarantee your investment.

Red-Apple

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 10:36:15 AM

the end of a drop or bottom is not something you can calculate with some formula! you can analyze the market and come up with an speculation but that is about it. read speculation board and some stuff on technical analysis and look at sites like tradingview.com to get how things work.

Quote from: Clearstream on March 09, 2019, 10:32:10 AM

If the price of bitcoin is lower than the mining cost of miners, then the miners are greatly reduced.

yes but then the cost of mining will lower and it again becomes profitable.

Quote

BTC will be attacked by 51%.

price has to drop A LOT more than a small drop and A LOT of miners have to go away for a 51% to become possible!

Quote

It is not accepted for all Bitcoin holders. Especially whales. Calculating the mining cost of a miner may approximate the base price of BTC in the near future.

no it is not. price is (to put simply) determined with supply and demand. the cost does not matter at all.

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Beerwizzard

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 11:00:28 AM

Quote from: Clearstream on March 09, 2019, 10:32:10 AM

The absolute bottom is 0. I'm sure that no one will pay me just to give me his Bitcoins. Everything else is just a combination of sentiment and technical analysis.
Imho mining costs are not the bottom price simply because not BTC sellers on exchanges are miners. Also, ICO investors at some point can realize that they have to fix their loses and sell tokens lower then they got it. The same thing could work with miners.

funchiestz

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 11:51:40 AM

It is almost impossible to predict where is the bottom and where is the ATH! Market react unpredictable when its going down or up!

MakeMoneyBtc

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 12:28:01 PM

Quote from: Clearstream on March 09, 2019, 10:32:10 AM

Bitcoin could go to $10k tomorrow, in the same time it could go to 50$ tomorrow. Who knows what's going to happen? No one, probably even whales who are controlling the market sometimes but it's impossible for them to control 100% of it since they don't have access to all bitcoin existing.

boyptc

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 12:39:22 PM

Quote from: Clearstream on March 09, 2019, 10:32:10 AM

Will BTC continue to fall?

I hope it won't and the status currently, bitcoin has broken back $3,950 and starts to give that idea to reach $4,000 again.

As mentioned by others, there's no way to determine if we already hit the bottom and with that calculation if you are aware of those stats before on what places has high and low cost of mining in bitcoin. It means that it doesn't fully rely on it, some countries are too expensive to mine bitcoin and some are reliable and cheap.

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 12:44:15 PM

instead of focusing all day long on tiny things that have a tiny chance of happening you should start focusing on the reality and what you have been missing all these years by having a bad mentality!

price can fall, miners can go away, 51% attack can happen and an asteroid can hit the earth but all the while nothing of these are happening and bitcoin has been growing for ten years solid.

Holding Bitcoin More Every Day

veleten

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 01:45:35 PM

if anyone could reliably calculate the bottom price of bitcoin, he would have been very rich
bitcoin price is formed in accordance to a demand/supply model and its price is what people are willing to pay for it at the moment
mining profitability will be adjusted when the price goes down , the miners with high electricity costs and expenses stop their miners
diffculty goes down , hence increasing profitability for the remaining miners and its a self regulated area
to connect the bottom price to mining profitablity or to 51% attack cost is simply wrong

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Jating

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 01:55:11 PM

Great. So your argument is based on the mining cost or the profitability of mining a bitcoin? We've heard so much about this argument already that most of the time we almost forgot about it or we just ignored this sort of arguments already.

It could be a factor but there are a lot of miners globally with different mining cost so it's really hard to accept your argument because obviously it has flawed in the beginning. Just enjoy the ride, if the price is in dip, then continue to stack up your wallet with bitcoin and wait for the next bull-run and stop focusing on the cost, etc. etc.

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Kopyleft

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 02:43:22 PM

#10

There is no general bottom, the market goes through phases and in each case has a different support and resistance levels. Zero is the lowest possible limit, but it's unlikely to get to that, based of speculations and trades, you can use this as well as fundamental analysis to come up with a range.
The average cost of mining also plays an important role in the market price.

Denv_eagle

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 03:27:50 PM

#11

This can not be done. No man or even artificial intelligence can figure this out. The cryptosphere, like other areas, is very chaotic. We can only assume something. My opinion is that the bottom of the market has already been. Because my logic tells me that Bitcoin will gradually grow.

kelz1

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 03:49:00 PM

#12

Based on what the OP really means i would say that the bottom has already been hit. It could have dropped to $3000 like many predicted but that never happened. Now it is aiming for the $4k mark again

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Tom_13

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 04:20:30 PM

#13

If Bitcoin will not fall down again, then the bottom of the market has already been. According to some forecasts, Bitcoin will only grow in the future... so the answer is obvious.

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 08:43:27 PM

#14

Quote from: MakeMoneyBtc on March 09, 2019, 12:28:01 PM

Quote from: Clearstream on March 09, 2019, 10:32:10 AM

It could theoretically but not practically. It's truly hard to imagine the kind of news or events that could lead to such rapid changes. Especially with the $50 case. Too many people would need to make the same decision about their funds at the same time to make it happen, and I still think that we'd need at least a week for that.
Bitcoin's bottom seems to be nearby if another Craig Wright does not ruin the whole thing IMO. Unfortunately, there are still a couple of too influential people that are capable of making Bitcoin drop another 50% of the current price. I hope they are not interested in that, though, and we'll be okay.

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richminded

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 08:58:57 PM

#15

Quote from: Clearstream on March 09, 2019, 10:32:10 AM

We can see the bottom if there is a strong support level that time and I believe we already hit that bottom. Bitcoin will not continue to fall, instead we will continue to challenge the resistance until we succeed on that. There is always a bottom, and with bitcoin that bottome level will continue to increase in the coming years so dont panic and have patience.

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 09:14:21 PM

#16

Quote from: Clearstream on March 09, 2019, 10:32:10 AM

BTC's bottom is not some type of math problem, it can't really be calculated. But there's people willing to put $21 million at $1 - right? So definitely more than $1 - the question is how many people and how much money they have. My guess is around $1200 but it's a shot in the dark.

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 09:31:55 PM

#17

Crypto's disregard for most of the rules makes it very special and this makes it difficult for us to predict the price. This includes how the price will be and also where the bottom will be. The price is much lower than the value of mining and this is not worth the price. When psychologies are the same, we will reach what we wish.

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 09:39:36 PM

#18

Quote from: Clearstream on March 09, 2019, 10:32:10 AM

I do not think this equation is correct in determining the price of BTC
Market mechanisms (supply and demand) determine the prices
The indicators point to the bottom of the market that we have already reached
Or at least close to it.

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 10:13:30 PM

#19

Quote from: funchiestz on March 09, 2019, 11:51:40 AM

It is almost impossible to predict where is the bottom and where is the ATH! Market react unpredictable when its going down or up!

Its hard for now but once we reach the top again, we can notice that the bottom is very strong to support bitcoin. We can use technical analysis to view resistance and support level traders know it of course but that would be confirm if we reach that level so far I think the bottom was already hit last year.

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Re: How to calculate the bottom of Bitcoin？

March 09, 2019, 10:43:49 PM

#20

To calculate the bottom, just know where the bitcoin price stopped after a big dump, and it rises right away when it hit the bottom. This is our guide as investors on when to enter in the market, but there is no accurate calculation on this because volatility can change it anytime.

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