it looks like 2015, and that's what most of us are hoping for. but the bottom range isn't well established yet. ranges need to be tested in both directions multiple times so we still need to wait and see. there is still a possibility this is a long term "bear flag" and we are still destined to continue the bear market to sub-$3000 levels. that'll probably ruin this idea of a "4 year cycle". i hesitate to say such a cycle exists yet since 2014-17 was the only time it happened. all i know is the long term bitcoin chart is bullish.

It is common to see people claim that Bitcoin follows the pattern which was established in 2017. I understand why they want to think this way as it took less than a year to reach 20k by the year end starting with just 1k in January that year (at a certain point price had even momentarily crashed to 750)

But it is unlikely we are going to see that pattern right now. If anything, it feels more like we are back in 2015. In the first half of that year we were making lows (the last local low was in August at around 200) and only since the fall Bitcoin started to gain momentum in earnest. Then the halving came in July 2016 and the real run-away growth kicked off in a few months (in September 2016, to be exact) being somewhat postponed by the Bitfinex hack in early August

For that matter, things look more like we are following the 4 year cycle in which the Bitcoin reward halvings play an ever important role, and we are in the beginning phase of a new cycle. The implication is that we shouldn't be overly optimistic and expect too much of 2019 as it is more like 2015 rather than 2017 (and 2018 was our 2014). Indeed, things never repeat themselves but the overall outlook should be clear by now

So what are your thoughts?

As for me, bitcoin isn't following any cycles. It's volatile and unstable so we can't conclude that it's repeating the exact path as before. Though some historical cycles can be used to predict the future trend, I believe that no bitcoin cycle could repeat or could ever have the same version of itself.

Actually, deisik, I don't think most people are thinking it's 2017

The rational voice is the more common one, least to my eyes. And this 2015 phase is precisely what the rational (and objective) view should place us

You were talking about prices, so I thought you were talking about a 4-year cycle in the price. Sure, the halving occurs approximately every 4 years, but the price has not followed a 4-year cycle.

there is no bitcoin cycle, it all depends on the market, the bitcoin volume is very sad right now, considering the price is fantastic at the end of 2017, I don't know how it was in 2015, because I don't know bitcoin

a cycle is only a cycle and worth having it under observation and act on it only if it repeats multiple times

Indeed, the halving cycle. The halving is predictable, but the price is unpredictable. I know that from the past two halvings the price actions look similar.

However, in my opinion, it's still different, and these similarities are highly coincidental.