There has been a ton of true statements that you made in that post. I am not going to address them one by one as I am a little bit short on time, but one thing that people can't get into their heads is that it is still early days for BTC. More reasons will come why a decentralized currency (or reserve tool or whatever someone wants to use it for) will find its way into society in wide spread fashion. The only thing that gets me concerned at times is the pace of development. Frankly, I am not even up to date how that is going and what the pace is at which advancements happen.

I have said a while ago that technologies like the lightning network should in a best case scenario work more like a plug and play, like an app, someone presses connect and there you go. Similar to a VPN or even the TOR browser where someone can connect their wallet and then benefit from LN as the rest will be done automatically in the backend.

But apart from these issues, the number of people owning BTC is still small. It's actually tiny. People are too obsessed with the price instead of the network potential. Of course when someone sees that it was once pennies and now it's in the tens of thousands, it looks like they are late to the party. But price is probably one of the worst metrics to base their decision on.


That sounds reasonable to me, but I still think that BTC can barely be stopped from expanding unless there is some fatal flaw or threat that hits the network out of nowhere. I find the fact that governments are now paying close attention to BTC very interesting. Because now they all know that being late to the party could have geo strategical consequences in the long term. Some of them probably build at least a little reserve and hence remove more circulating supply.

The whole "waiting for the dip thing" is flawed. The only approach I would somewhat accept is if someone has a set in stone threshold and if that is hit, a lump sum is going to be used to build a substantial stash (relatively, depending on the individual). I think those who talk about waiting for the dip are also those who panic when their chosen threshold is reached, they buy and then BTC crashes further and they sell again because they panic. We have said this dozens of times, nobody knows where exactly a correction or crash makes the U-turn. If Wind_FURY believes that this is the way to go for him, then fine, but propagating that it is a golden formula is utter nonsense. Maybe he should start a dedicated thread and post his decisions in real time, so we can see whether he is making the right calls all the time or not. My modest guess is that he is 50% right and 50% wrong, so why not just flip a coin once a week, buy when tail shows up and don't buy when heads show up

Perhaps you might think that there are no risk in bitcoin because of how well it has performed over the years but you can't underestimate the fact that carefulness is very important as much as the investment itself. Of course @synchronym might not express what he meant by being careful but we can still relate bitcoin risk to other areas apart from the obvious part that it's a paradigm and not a Ponzi scheme as lots of people saw it from the past. Risk that are involved in bitcoin could be few and not as much as shitcoins can be risky hence I can would relate you to the irreversible nature of bitcoin, wallet compromise etcetera.

Apparently you might not want to consider this as risk that one should be careful with for some reason of being acquainted if the basic bitcoin knowledge but for someone who is probably a newbie or a novice investor it's paramount to be careful and examine every step which one would probably take in the cost of bitcoin purchase and/or investment.

I think that everything that you say laijsica is correct, except you are very broad in terms of how much back up funds that I guy should maintain, and you are even quite non-specific about the purpose of your various back up funds.

Of course, if shit really hits the fan and income dries up and/or expenses go way up, then there is going to be a lot of good feelings and/or comfort to have more money available to hopefully make it through the difficult period without having to suffer too much... and so yeah, their would be heirarchies in regards to the various kinds of classifications of back up funds, and I think that 3 months of expenses is almost necessary for most everyone who is investing, yet a brand new investor could simultaneously build up his emergency fund while he is building up his bitcoin holdings... so for someone who might have had been living with only 2-4 weeks of back up funds, it could even take a year or more just to build up both his back up funds (his emergency fund) and his BTC holdings to amount to 3 months of expenses each.

Once an investor gets to a point in which he has both emergency funds and his BTC investment up to those kinds of 3 months each levels, then at that point, he may well need to take into account his own circumstances to figure out how to go about saving other kinds of reserve funds that may well depend upon how unreliable his income and/or how likely it could be that he is going to suffer from unexpected (or somewhat expected) expenses, and so the more unreliable his situation, the more reserve funds he should be building and maintaining to account for these kinds of possibilities.. because what good would it do to be saving, suffering and struggling to build up a BTC investment portfolio for a year or even for several years, and then all of a sudden suffer a cashflow disappearance issue or some kind of expenses that were somewhat expected and then end up being forced to sell some or all of your BTC holdings at a time that you did not want to and because of circumstances that were somewhat foreseeable.

My main point is that the extent to which cashflow/expense problems are foreseeable likely create more obligations to hold more funds in reserves, and also BTC investors should also be careful that they sufficiently conservative in terms of both planning for emergencies and also to plan for situations that might not seem very likely to happen, yet of course, when those less likely events happen, there likely are ways that anyone will be quite thankful to have emergency funds and/or various kinds of backup funds in place, and so there should also be attempts to keep funds that you never end up have to use, but at the same time trying to tailor the amounts to your own situation in regards to considering how much BTC are you trying to protect, and so perhaps the longer that you are in bitcoin, it becomes easier to have had built various kinds of backup funds, and more likely  that, even though it is not guaranteed that your bitcoin are going to be profitable, there still comes more likelihood with longer passage of time that you should be able to see progress in your building in terms of the various kinds of cash cushions that you have and how you might be maintaining those cash cushions in various kinds of ways.  In the first 2-4 years, there are likely to be more struggles to build up various kinds of back up funds and to build the BTC portfolio up at the same time.


I am not claiming to know exactly what is "risk," yet it seems to me that there are many folks who are referring to BTC price volatility as risk, yet many of us already know that one of the most inevitable things about bitcoin is that its price is going to be volatile both to the upside and to the downside, so each of us who invests into bitcoin, we likely are hoping and/or expecting that bitcoin's volatility to the upside is going to be greater than its volatility to the downside, so even though it is not guaranteed to be the case that UPside is going to be greater than DOWNside, each of us should be attempting to figure out a BTC position size that attempts to account for our calculation or how likely we consider the upside to be greater than the downside and how much of our disposable income are we willing to allocate into bitcoin.

So if we have less confidence and more worries about the whole weighing of the volatility situation, then likely we should be investing a smaller amount in order to account for our worries about the strength of bitcoin's investment thesis.. and so we have to live with the consequences of the level of the aggressiveness of our choice to invest into bitcoin, too.

Another thing that each of us should be calculating is our abilities to make sure that we survive through the ups and the downs of what we already know is going to be bitcoin's volatile price periods so that if BTC prices do end up going up within our investment timeline (which is hopefully 4-10 years or longer), then we are going to have had survived through such volatile periods and still be holding most if not all of our BTC and even better that we would have had been building our BTC stash through all of those difficult times so that we become more likely to end up having way more options because we were able to build and hang onto our BTC stashes rather than failing/refusing to act and failing refusing to build up a adequate/sufficient BTC stash because of our being scared because of volatility that is likely already known from the beginning and/or scared from the various uncertainties of not exactly knowing how the whole BTC investment matter is going to play out, even if we had been considering BTC as an asymmetric bet to the upside in which the most that we could end up losing would be 100% of our investment (as long as we did not engage in leveraging and/or fucking around with trying to trade.. such as selling for purposes of trying to buy back cheaper, which seems like mostly a game that is going to result in uncertainties and losses as opposed to a practice that almost exclusively focuses on various ways to buy and/or accumulate BTC without selling it. except perhaps sell and replace). 


Sure, you seem to be making an additional point that bitcoin is much more assured than getting involved in shitcoins, so hopefully anyone who is tempted to gamble, trade and/'or get involved in shitcoins is not using any more than 10% the size of his bitcoin holdings in order to engage in such activities.. and hopefully also not cheating in terms of allowing more than 10% to be put into gambling, trading and/or shitcoin involvement after losing it along the way.


I doubt that any normal people are really able to keep up with all aspects of bitcoin's ongoing developments, and even folks who are working with and on bitcoin full time, likely have trouble keeping up with areas of bitcoin's development that might not be exactly within their own area of working with and/or on bitcoin.


Of course, we seem to have always had these user-friendly questions, and even though some jurisdictions have been acting as if they are friendly to bitcoin, at the same time, there are ongoing attacks on developers who create apps to empower the abilities of individuals to directly interact with bitcoin and also ongoing attempts to control on and off ramps to assure that everyone is KYC'd, traceable and attempts to maintain and build control over abilities for individuals to interact in privacy, which also likely relates to how some of the individual sovereignty tools can be developed when there are various sly ways that they are being attacked through control mechanisms, including forcing miners to go through pools (while it does not seem so much like forcing when there are ongoing incentives that contribute towards people wanting to KYC themselves for the sake of supposedly getting better payouts and more convenience), and I am not even suggesting that I know the answers to these various kinds of dynamics that likely take away from several aspects of what causes BTC to be powerful.


There have always been perceptions that bitcoin is overpriced based on past performance people get afraid that they are buying at the top, so it becomes difficult to address these kinds of ongoingly wrong perceptions... yet at the same time, BTC prices continue to increase and are likely going to continue to increase into the future for quite a long time with no coiners and low coiners continuing to fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately prepare for UP because they don't want  to buy at the top, and so they are not tending to know enough about bitcoin in order to realize that any time is a good time to buy bitcoin and that the only way to sufficiently/adequately prepare for UP is to buy some bitcoin, and so their ongoing scared-i-cat-ness about buying at the top should more likely affect their starting out position size rather than causing them to fail/refuse to start buying, so there seems to be almost no way to save people from their own ongoing and persistent wrong thinking about bitcoin - except to just recognize and accept that people get bitcoin at the price that they deserve and if they don't get in sooner, then they are just going to end up getting in later, and most likely at a higher rather than a lower price.


Yep.. we have individuals, institutions and governments, and bitcoin creates similar kinds of incentives for each of the categories, even though the dynamics with each are likely more complicated with each level that you go up, and individuals have the most flexibility to act quickly and with fewer burdens and complications, and some of the bigger institutions and governments might have more complications to both decide whether and/or how to get into bitcoin and even how to act once they have decided in the affirmative to get into bitcoin.  Likely you suggested, they are all likely coming into bitcoin, it is just a matter of when, and individuals have quite a bit of luck to be able to front-run some of the BIGGER and the insider players that tend to not so much be available in other kinds of investments.. but even anyone who is attempting to front-run anyone else, whether an individual, institution or a government, they still have to act to start buying, once they had come to the conclusion that it is to their advantage to get in rather than failing/refusing to get in.


I am not opposed to the idea of anyone employing all three BTC accumulation strategies (DCA, lump sum and/or buying the dip), as long as they appreciate the trade offs (and potentially the reasons) for employing each of the strategies.  Lump sum and DCA seem to be the best strategies for beginners, yet anyone who successfully front loads his/her investment in the very beginning might then be o.k. to incorporate buying on the dip thresholds, and surely I am not in agreement with fucking around with all or nothing thresholds, but instead staggering thresholds in a ladder kind of a manner, yet that ladder kind of a manner of staggering entry buy points seem way more appropriate for guys who have already bought rather than some no coiner or low coiner waiting for an entry point when there is no guarantee that BTC prices are going to go down rather than up, so it would seem like just gambling if someone is setting himself up to buy on dips without having had already bought some BTC already. But, hey whatever, people can do whatever they like, even if they do dumb stuff such as structure waiting into their BTC strategy in the event they either do not have any BTC or they already know that they don't have enough BTC to be sufficiently/adequately prepared for up.


Wind_FURY already created this thread with the buying on the dip theme, so I am not sure what good any additional thread showing his actual BTC buys (or his ongoing waiting to buy) would accomplish. Even though he does not really seem to acknowledge that he is wrong, he does give in on topic from time to time, so I don't really see any problem with him continuing to argue buy on the dip and waiting for the dip principles, even if he seems to be wrong on the part that he frequently does not acknowledge that the waiting for the dip practices is likely better for folks who have already accumulated decent and sufficient BTC stashes to prepare themselves for up, and even he likely fits in that category.  I think part of Wind_FURY's problem is that he sometimes seems to slip into buying on the dip as if it were the best strategy, especially when he starts to get feelings that a dip might be coming... hahahahahaha.. which is kind of crazy when you think about it... it is like saying.. I can feel a dip is becoming more likely to come. .therefore, I am now recommending and emphasizing the values of waiting for the dip. before buying bitcoin, whether you have BTC or not .. just waiting seems good since if you wait and the BTC price goes down, you will end up being able to get more BTC for the same amount of dollars, and sure it is true that if the BTC price goes down, then you will be able to buy more BTC with the same amount of dollars, but yeah whatever, it is almost impossible to know if the BTC price is going to go down or continue to go down, and frequently the brand new person to bitcoin (which is a no coiner) should not be messing around with trying to figure out if a further dip may or may not be coming, and even any person who is either new to bitcoin (and has only a few coins) or who has been in bitcoin for a while, but has concluded that he does not have enough BTC, even those people probably should not be spending time and energies trying to figure out whether there might be a BTC price dip or not prior to just continuing to buy BTC... so yeah, at a certain point, the quantity of the BTC likely starts to affect how much of an ability someone might start to feel that he has the luxury to wait for a dip rather than just buying at whatever might be the current price.


I think that it is important to point out that no one is really rejecting the idea of having knowledge or even suggesting or promoting the idea of ignorance, yet one of the most important pieces of knowledge tends to be very basic, and that is if you have $10 in your wallet, you have to be in enough of a position to know whether that $10 is within your disposable income or if you actually need that $10 for expenses.. and if you invest into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer with that $10, are you going to need that $10 in an earlier time. Yeah sure, you have to likely figure out how to get your bitcoin and various other things, but you can learn those matters along the way, and likely the more you invest into bitcoin and the longer that you invest, the more incentivized you should be in order to figure out various aspects of what bitcoin is and why you are investing into it... so probably when you invest that first $10 into bitcoin, then you likely merely need to have enough confidence in bitcoin (or the advice that you are getting about bitcoin) that it is better to buy some of it rather than not and that it could take 4-10 years or longer before you would be considering drawing upon your investment, so you likely realize that you are going to need to learn some of those kinds of matters along the way including if you continue to accumulate bitcoin how are you going to do it and where are you going to keep it, and so it would seem that with common sense, the more and more that you build up your bitcoin investment, the more incentivized you should be to want to make sure that your bitcoin investment is secure, since most people invest with an expectation and a hope that they are going to be better off for investing rather than not, yet at the same time, people who invest might also likely realize that they might end up losing up to 100% of the amount that they invested. 

Ultimately, a lot of the particulars about owning bitcoin can be learned along the way, and so the most basic aspect of bitcoin would merely concern the extent to which you have any disposable income, and so you can size down your initial investment amounts into bitcoin in order to assure that you are not drawing upon money that you actually need (or that goes beyond your disposable income) and you may also have to have a little bit of confidence that it is better to invest into bitcoin rather than not, even though you may well not have much reason to have confidence in your investment into bitcoin except maybe based on a recommendation or a hunch, yet the more that you invest and the longer you are in bitcoin, it is likely incumbent on you to learn more, yet how much you learn, how you learn which parts you focus on are all discretionary matters, and each person is responsible for his own level of learning, even if getting started requires almost no knowledge beyond just knowing whether the $10 (or whatever other staring amount)  is within your discretionary income, and sure there are some folks who do not have very good grasps over what is their discretionary income versus if they are taking from money that they need, yet they are responsible to figure that shit out...

and it is on them if they are investing into bitcoin or anything else with money that they actually need, which I would suggest to be gambling rather than investing, and if they don't know the difference between investing and gambling, then maybe they are going to need to figure that out, yet I doubt that they really have to know prior to getting started, and they are going to be responsible for their own actions if they are actually gambling and erroneously calling what they are doing as investing... I expect a certain level of common sense for people to figure out these kinds of basic matters for themselves, even though it is true that there are a lot of people who don't really understand or appreciate the difference between investing and gambling, but I am not going to assume that they cannot get started in bitcoin and figure out those kinds of matters along the way and if they make a mistake, that is on them..  We have bitcoin, which is likely amongst the best, if not the best, of investments that are available for folks especially if they are able to establish a 4-10 year or longer investment timeline, and so if they come into bitcoin balls to the walls and they cannot figure out basic ideas of starting out conservatively and controlling position size as they are figuring things out, then yeah some people are going to end up being their own worst enemy, but without knowing more I am not going to stop and tell them to study the matter.  I am going to suggest that the best thing for them to  do is to get started as soon as they can and as long as they are using discretionary income and they are planning to invest 4-10 years or longer.  The rest is on them to  figure position size  and the various details about how to do it, or perhaps if they want to ask some questions that are particular to their situation, then no problem, shoot your questions and I will see if I can be helpful beyond just suggesting that they look into the matter, such as which exchange to use or where to make their first purchases, which may well vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and what might be going on in the area that a person is and they might have to research into that or ask someone who knows regarding where to begin to source their first coins.


My answer is no.  They do not need to know that stuff when they start. They can learn along the way.  Maybe they start out investing only $10 per week and after they learn more, then they increase to $50 per week, and then as they learn even more they increase to $100 per week.. and so yeah, there could be ways that some folks learn faster than other folks, and one of the better ways to inspire anyone to want to learn more and faster is when they are starting to invest into bitcoin, even if their first investment amounts might be quite lower than what they otherwise would be capable and potentially willing to invest if they were to have more knowledge.

I agree with @AirtelBuzz, to invest in Bitcoin you don't need to have full experience of Bitcoin first, just have general knowledge and basic concept to start investing. By continuing to invest regularly, over time you will get to know knowledge and experience Bitcoin and Crypto all by yourself.

And we should look at the market's deep season as an opportunity and not a risk, the more we invest when the market is deep, the more success we can achieve in the bullish season, because when we can buy at a lower price when we buy, it will give us more profit later. Moreover, a DCA user should be can never look at the market conditions, he only has to buy whatever the market conditions are, only then he can achieve great success.

Very well said, you have a good opinion there. Funds must be put aside to cater for emergencies or rather to prepare for a rainy day since it is a rainy day that tests one’s preparedness. It is advised that people should have at least 3-6 months worth of expenses saved up in cash, although this may be considered to be just an average and may differ from one person to another.

Holding an emergency fund and Bitcoin at the same time is a good way for new investors to start accumulating. Of course it may take time, but having a cash reserve and a solid investment portfolio will give one confidence and stability.

Besides, creating up these funds may take both time and commitment, yet it is necessary for creating financial security and coping with eventualities. It is very important always to plan for the future irrespective of how financially ready or prepared one is. It is perfectly alright that one begins with just a little cash and over time adds more to his or her emergency fund as well as investments.


After the emergency fund and the Bitcoin investment portfolio have been set out it will be appropriate to evaluate one’s circumstances from time to time and assess possible risks in order to decide whether it will be necessary to create additional reserve fund.

Unsteady income, the possibility of losing a job or expenses that are to be expected such as the cost of repairing a car or house taxes may cause financial instability. These risks can be alleviated with having more reserve funds, so that bitcoin holdings will not have to be sold in unfavorable market conditions.

In this regard, it is important to constantly review and evaluate one’s own financial position and rebalance reserve funds. This might include:

- Income stability: If there is unpredictability with the level of income, then that's a cue that one needs to have more funds in reserve.

- Expense predictability: If the expenses are unpredictable or likely to be steep, one should then save to cater for certain costs, and that means increasing one's reserve.

- Debt obligations: If paying off the debts is a challenge then it is recommended to have more money on your emergency fund to cater for the basic needs.

- Financial goals: Whether short or long term goals entail holding of bitcoins in a constant and stable rate, the focus should be in staking up the reserve funds for investment.

Therefore, by analyzing these factors, investors can have a more thorough financial security and protect their positions and their Bitcoin strategy in the long term

That's exactly the point mate, there is always a starting point so it is not necessary that newbies must know everything from day one, Bitcoin investment is a continuous process, as you are into it, it gives you an open mind to learn more in the system, you don't have to wait further to be knowledgeable because as you keep waiting it may stand as a discouragement for you to continue with the plan of investing in the said investment, a strategist that's after hodling for a long-term will not be thinking towards having a enough knowledge from the begining when he or she already know that once he or she is fully involved in the investment he will definitely get the knowledge as time goes on.

It is even funny to say newbies should have enough knowledge before starting their investing journey when we know that there are many things involved in Bitcoin which is not possible for us to know all before investing, we are only concentrating on the investment aspect which is the major thing.
This people waiting to have enough, are they going to get the technical knowledge too before they can invest? If that's the case I don't think they are ready for the investment, sometimes when I see people say this things I laugh because many people are busy investing and some are just somewhere indirectly discouraging themselves with a delay mindset. As far as am concerned the investment is real, tested and trusted and if you are still waiting, you are on a longthing, wait no more, start doing the needful which is buying slow and steadily with the amount you can afford until you are satisfied with the level of Bitcoin you have accumulated so far in your portfolio and continue hodling for a long-term.

Why? And what will be the use of the money they want to invest when they don’t know how to invest in bitcoin? That doesn’t make any sense; it is not advisable to put your money into something you don’t know anything about. So the first thing you should do is learn the concept of bitcoin investment. Even if you won’t learn the whole thing, you need to know how volatile the market is, the risks, and how to manage them. After investing, any other knowledge you need can come in, but investing without the knowledge is totally wrong. 

Of course, now is still the best moment to get the best price, for those who are smart, they really take advantage of conditions like now, but there are still many who are not aware and are still busy playing with their funds by buying other coins that are not important, talking about risks, of course, all of them are there and one more thing, the price history will give us guidance in investing.

All times are the best time to buy bitcoins. But there are times when buying time increases the potential for greater profits, and I consider the present to be such a time. I see no reason to think any time is the best time to get the best value. This is a period that increases the chance of accumulating more bitcoins in your portfolio than using up the previous amount of money.

For those who are worried about this price of bitcoin, I think they should know about the history of bitcoin price. Bitcoin price history is given by - https://www.forbesindia.com/article/explainers/bitcoin-price-history/92523/1
If you read this report carefully, you will see that the price of Bitcoin was dumped more and then recovered. At times Bitcoin has pumped more than 10x-12x after dumping 4x-5x price. If we look at dumping and pumping in 2020 and 2021, we may not be disappointed with Bitcoin's price decline. Because bitcoins must face huge dumps before pumping. It may not be wrong if we say that the nature of Bitcoin pumped after such dumping.

Those who are depressed about the price of Bitcoin should study the history of Bitcoin better and gain more knowledge about Bitcoin. Because it is important to know these information to make the investment long and successful. Disappointment with the price of Bitcoin during holding is more likely to have a negative impact on the investment. So it is important to know Bitcoin to get out of the negative influence, by knowing you can always make positive decisions.

We can't blame them because they are most likely less knowledgeable and do not know the benefits of Bitcoin in general, and maybe the reason is that the price of Bitcoin is already too high so that they can actually buy in small amounts according to their ability. And maybe that's some of the reasons they buy other coins and besides that the hype of new coins especially memecoins is increasing which is actually very risky for them. And it is true that at this time it is still the right choice to buy or continue to do DCA on Bitcoin because in the end the price of Bitcoin will go up again and continue to rise which will provide good profits especially for long-term holders.