Quite alright, the problem here is not just about you being able to reach your accumulation target within two years, the question now is that within this two years of your accumulation and reaching your accumulation target, how much of a profit are you in, is your level of input given you the required amount of output you really deserve,
You shouldn't be paying attention to profit then, just two years interval, it makes no sense thinking of profit just because you have gotten to that over accumulation status very early.
what if within that two years of you reaching your accumulation targets and suddenly youre hit with a big dip which of course is very much possible as a result of bitcoin volatility.
It's very possible, if the dip really affect your stash and reduced it value, it's left for you to either seize the opportunity and buy more and add to your stash or you stick to the original plan, which is holding for more than 10 years, because regardless of you achieving your over accumulation status very early, you must still hold it up to the minimum of two circles, which is 8 years period.
I largely agree with you Futurexxx, yet I think that you are limiting yourself in regards to how you are thinking about how a person might come to assessing himself as reaching overaccumulation status..., since he could get money from income, but he also could have other investments that he reallocates into bitcoin.
If we might consider that a guy might have a standard of living that he would like to achieve without working - maybe he wants to make the same as he is already making (and while working or maybe he wants to increase his current income, such as doubling it) so then he might have a goal of what he wants his annual income to be from his investment. It gives him guidelines in terms of what he is trying to achieve and also goals in terms of how much of that value he has put into bitcoin -= including what the bitcoin is worth, which I agree with you that there is likely a time element, we are not just going to put the money into bitcoin and then withdraw it without allowing the holdings to appreciate in value.
I frequently like to think in terms of how many years of income have I put into the investment and then how many years of income is the investment worth... so then if we get the investment up to a point that its worth 10x the 200-WMA value, then that would be entry-level fuck you status (at least from my way of assessing it).
So accordingly, in normal circumstances it would take a guy 10 years to reach 1 year of his income if he is investing 10% of his income per year... yet if a guy is investing at higher rates and/or drawing from other sources, he could get to 1, 2, 3 or even more years of his income invested into bitcoin by reallocating from the other investments into bitcoin.. so then if he gets larger amounts into bitcoin earlier, then he is in a much better place if the BTC price goes up after he had already gotten a good position into bitcoin.
We cannot work out all of the various scenarios, even though I would posture that there is a difference if a guy is able to invest higher levels of his income - even though each of us have to work within our own circumstances and options, and surely any guys who have been successfully investing for 4-10 years or more, even before they got into bitcoin, they are going to have more options based on their already having had built up investment funds that are not ONLY dependent on their regular income... and none of us has to be rich in order to get to a status in which we have already spent years building up our investments prior to coming to bitcoin and even when we come to bitcoin we may well be wanting to continue to build up our investment and add bitcoin in the mix, yet we have more options based on our having had built up other investments that we may or may not choose to put some or all of it into bitcoin.. and even if we don't put the other investment in bitcoin, the other investments will add to the resources that we have available to us in regards to how we think about and carry out our investment into bitcoin.
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Although, another path for HODLing is to make it multi-generational. A 70 year old man could teach one of his grandchildren about Bitcoin and give it to him/her as an inheritance for him/her to HODL until it surges to an "X" price valuation.
If the decision at what X will be was given to me, I would suggest when Bitcoin's total market value is the same or more than Gold's total market value.
Maybe you should just admit that you have no fucking clue how to attempt to help a person who is 60 years old in terms of how he might include bitcoin as part of his financial planning in the event that he is thinking that we would be 70 years old in 10 years from now.
The first time around, you seemed to say that he should sell whatever bitcoin that he had in order to live his life, which is nearly retarded to presume that he would have any bitcoin, so if we might try to be realistic about the guy not having any bitcoin, then what should he do? get into bitcoin or ignore bitcoin?
You may well have no fucking clue since you do not know how to think incrementally.. .and you ONLY think about dips that may or may not happen, so you don't know how to get into bitcoin or to plan for bitcoin because you are overly focused on the price and you are currently thinking that bitcoin is overly priced.
Part of my problem with the idea practice of selling with the purpose of buying back cheaper is not that it won't happen, but instead that uncertainty is purposefully being injected into a process that would otherwise be focused on buying only, so if you are ONLY buying, then at least you know that your are ongoingly building your bitcoin stash to larger amounts, yet sure it is also possible that the BTC price is dropping faster than you are able to buy more of it, so there is no guarantee that your ongoing buying of bitcoin will be profitable either, even though part of the reason that many of us buy bitcoin and hold bitcoin for years and years and years is because there are thoughts that the odds are pretty decent that with the passage of time, bitcoin's price will continue to go up, and it is even likely to go up more and even faster than any other place that the money could be put (even if there may well be periods in which the BTC price goes down in price for extented periods of time).
So anyhow, I just consider selling BTC in order to expect to be able to buy back cheaper is injecting unnecessary risk and also screwing up some otherwise straighter forward goals that involve buying only which if you are buying only and not fucking around changing what you are doing, then you can stay focused on being persistent with such buying.. which likely would end up paying off more in the long run rather than losing such focus.
If someone start selling his Bitcoin for short profit and he has intention that he will buy back Bitcoin when it comes down. Even if he buys Bitcoin when it's price went down, then surely there is no guarantee that he will hold those Bitcoin for long duration rather he will sell them again for small profit. The cycle keep repeating itself again and again. If someone is selling then he will also not able to develop a stash of large amounts.
Of course people can do whatever they like, yet to me it seems that just focusing on buying bitcoin no matter the price is good for the first 4-10 years, and sure if a person is able to invest more aggressively, then he might be able to change his strategy of accumulation and be informed of what to do based on his situation and how much bitcoin he had been able to accumulate in his years of accumulating them.
Surely another thing is that guys might have difficulties figuring out what their goals are or how to measure the extent to which they might be at overaccumulation status or not or what constitutes overaccumulation status... So there likely is some obligation and personal responsibility to figured out how to measure overaccumulation status and how goals might change as a person reaches overaccumulation status or even as a guy approaches (or starts to get close to approaching) overaccumulation status.
We can figure out the status of overaccumulation when we are at initial stages of investing and we develop understanding of Bitcoin investment. Everyone has different goal of Bitcoin accumulation based on his income. Like those who are coming into Bitcoin right now might consider 1 Bitcoin as their goal.
There is nothing wrong with having goals, yet I doubt that we are locked into the goals that we set in the beginning, and as we are investing, we should be studying ourselves and studying bitcoin too.. .so we would likely hone our tactics and even our goals in accordance to both our learnings and also in regards to whether we had been able to execute plans that we had in the beginning.
I know that you get so excited about just buying some certain quantity of bitcoin (as a lump sum) and then just seeing where that takes you, yet I believe that bitcoin is a lifetime investment, not only in terms of the initial amount that we put into it, but that we likely would be justified to continue to put time value and energy into bitcoin through the years. Surely I understand that others are afraid to put time, value and energy into bitcoin, so they just lump sum into it and then hope it does well.. I don't agree with that approach, even though i know guys do that and they believe in that kind of an approach to bitcoin.
prep for dip people. I just got some under 106k
Got the info about the coming dip from a friend yesterday.
I Felt something like this would happen sooner, considering the fact that we've been struggling to climb back from where we left off. The question that keeps running through my mind is 'how worse could it possibly get?', when we've seen a few dips before now. So far so good, we've had a good run for year the 2025. Though, there is a possibility of making a comeback before the year runs out.
You have ONLY been registered on the forum since April 2024, which may well mean that you ONLY have around a year and a half in bitcoin, unless you had already been in bitcoin prior to your forum registration date.
I doubt that you need to be fucking around figuring out whether or not there is more dip, yet of course, I don't know your financial situation, even though frequently it takes a while to build up a bitcoin investment, unless you were able to front load your investment into bitcoin, yet still BTC prices had largely been at least in their $50ks and higher since early 2024, so I don't see how you would necessarily be stopping in your accumulation.. but who knows? Guys have their ideas (and sometimes wrong ideas) about how much bitcoin they think is enough or more than enough.
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Investors will always wish it doesn't get worse than this, but even if it does, what's the difference, shouldn't they be expecting it, or aren't they sopose to be prepared for it? Bitcoin is not doing a new thing, it's the nature, ups and down, that's why accumulating from discretionary becomes so important, because an investor wouldn't be running up and down or panicking to a point of selling off rather too early. For investors who accumulated Bitcoin aggressively but not from there discretionary, or without proper income allocation and/or management, this period is always a bad moment for them because they think alot and/or take certain negative decisions that affects there Bitcoin holdings(either selling off greater portion, if not all) in a bid to save themselves from total loss.
But on the other hand, investors who carried out a proper income allocation and/or management, and investing from there discretionary using the DCA strategy consistently, they would rather relax and keep up there weekly or monthly accumulation even in this Dip.
I must also add that the Dip period is not an entirely bad moment since it's also an opportunity for investors to buy aggressively and/or front load there Bitcoin holdings. But it must be noted that such buys should be from and already saved cash for that purpose, either reserve funds. An investor who in the name of front loading or increasing assets, that goes to buy Bitcoin using his emergency funds or his main income or even business Capital will leave to regret it because he will be only putting his investment at the risk of selling off too early because when the needs of those money he uses unplanned comes, he would have no other option than to take decisions against his holdings, which makes him not a good investor or not an investor at all. We must be guided.
Even a guy who front loaded his investment would have a certain quantity of bitcoin that he had bought at a certain price.. so then the amount of bitcoin that he already had accumulated could affect what he does next and if he is still buying or not.. .
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But if you ask me, that could depend on two conditions.
- The individual is already very old, and he/she needs to enjoy the fruits of his/her investment
The other condition is,
- The value of the investment has gotten large enough to that the individual will have enough money to enjoy financial freedom for his/her life.
I believe if Bitcoin surges to a seven digit price valuation, many people will enjoy the second condition.Bitcoin does not have to surge to seven digits for people to be advantaged by investing into bitcoin and/or for bitcoin to be a good place to allocate time, energy and value..