Well, if you want to go down memory lane in regards to BTC spot prices, it seems equally valid to me to go down the road of the 200-week moving average. This is what the 200-week moving average looks like, every two years.**

In late 2015 it was:  $252

In late 2017 it was:  $1,049

In late 2019 it was:  $4,908

In late 2021 it was:  $17,839

In late 2023 it was:  $29,049

**Note: you can see more years for 200-week moving average on a every six month's basis here.

Even though you can also compare spot price to the 200-week moving average (and most times spot price is above the 200-week moving average, except most recently between about mid 2022 until October 2023, we spent a lot of time below the 200-week moving average), I personally believe the 200-week moving average is a much better way to evaluate the value of your bitcoins.

I see the recent market moving quite well in fact we are in a good enough rally to see quite a significant increase. Well, I missed out on some recent purchases because the fees were quite expensive so I didn't open the market in the last few days.

I often make purchases from the exchange and withdraw them to my personal wallet and if the fees are high enough it makes me think a little about not doing it twice a month but will do it once every 3 months if I have to change my purchase planning.

But apart from that, the DCA that I have been doing for a long time has seen quite promising ROI in my portfolio. I think that this is a good start to grow his confidence to keep Hold and come back to accumulate when the fees are cheap. Maybe some of them are sore looking at the market because they regret having sold earlier.

Bitcoin etf is coming and we will see huge whales entering the market to pump the price of Bitcoin.

I think these patterns are caused by traders activities in the market. If Bitcoin has a particular patterns it follows at a certain intervals or time, then Bitcoin price can be predicted correctly. The traders are the ones who are acting similarly that's why the patterns are looking so similar, since it is the market activities that determine the price movement. The patterns are just there to aid you in knowing what happened in the past, and act as a guide when making decisions. The decision to buy or sell whenever you come across these patterns is yours alone to make, as past events doesn't really guarantee same occurance because from the time of the last one many things/events might have played out, which may alter somethings from happening or repeating itself exactly same way it happened last time.

Such methods are not only still effective, but are also still very widely used by people who are accumulating more Bitcoins and increasing the size of their respective portfolios in these increasingly improving conditions. Because we can all imagine how victorious and happy those who once bought Bitcoin at a price of $ 20K are still holding it quite well.

Just now I saw that the price of Bitcoin almost touched $48K, which means it is quite close to the new resistance level of $50K. And if Bitcoin can pass the $48K mark in a few days, of course it won't be so impossible to see a price of $50K in Bitcoin this month because price increases like now usually have more resilience than increases that fly straight away without any gradual stages.

Of course, the 200-week moving average is the average BTC price (I believe including trade volume) for the last 200-weeks, which is just about 4 years, and you can see that the BTC goes up, and I linked my chart that shows the history too, yet at the same time, we do not proclaim that history proves future results, and we are not talking about trading in this thread, so I was not even suggesting to try to trade on that data - except maybe I was merely suggesting to keep buying and accumulating and keep the 200-week moving average in mind in terms of your own valuating of your own BTC stash.  so for example, you could consider that if you have 10 BTC, then your spot price valuation would be $460k; however your 200-week moving average valuation would be $300k. 

I think you are being more fair to yourself if you consider the valuation of your BTC stash using the 200-week moving average rather than the price and even though it is not guaranteed that the BTC price is going to stay above the 200-week moving average, but it seems to be a much more solid way to valuate your BTC stash, whether you are trying to get to fuck you status or you have some other reason to attempt to put value to the seeming progress of your long term BTC accumulation.


You can look at how the BTC price varies from the 200-week moving average with the passage of time, and I am not sure if it is telling you very much about how to trade, except maybe that if the BTC price is real close to (or even below) the 200-week moving average, then you likely can have some pretty good ideas that you are in great places to accumulate BTC, and since we are not talking about selling in this thread, we are not suggesting to sell in order to accumulate more BTC at some later date, because it can be quite difficult to know how large the spread might get between BTC's spot price and the 200-week moving average. 

Currently the BTC spot price is around 53% higher than the 200-week moving average, yet there have been times that the BTC spot price has been 3-5x higher than the 200-week moving average (like during much of 2021, and there have been times that BTC's spot price got up to 12x to 15x higher than the 200-week moving average like in 2017 or maybe even more extreme of 18x to 24x higher than the 200-week moving average in 2013.  You can look up the specific dates and the differences on this website, and it can be difficult to try to trade on these kinds of dynamics... but how are you going to trade on that?  the earlier BTC price rise in 2021 that got up to nearly $65k reached around 5x the 200-week moving average, but the second one that reached $69k was ONLY around 3x higher than the 200-week moving average.  So it is not easy to trade those kinds of dynamics, as much as it might help to inform when to be more aggressive in your BTC accumulation, but even that can be dangerous if you come to believe that the 200-week is the absolute bottom, yet in 2022 we had times that the BTC price got to 35% below the 200-week moving average and also between about mid 2022 until October 2023, the BTC spot price spent a lot of time below the 200-week moving average, even though historically it had not spent very much time below the 200-week moving average.


You should not be thining about BTC transaction fees merely in terms of what they happen to be at the time that you make the transaction; however, you should be ttrying to give yourself options by NOT having a whole bunch of small BTC transactions and if you ever need to spend a lot of those transactions at the same time, then you will end up equal amount of fees for each of them.   So if you have $5k in bitcoin in your account, yet each of the past transactions that make up your BTC wallet are around  $50 each, then you have to combine 100 transactions in order to spend the $5k, so it could cost you $2,500 or more in fees to spend that $5k if you were going to do it all at once, and you are left with a bunch of small UTXOs that you have to wait for fees to go down before they are spendable.. so you are creating fewer options for yourself, as compared to the person who has maybe only 10 UTXOs or 1 or 2 UTXOs that make up the $5k.


You have to decide what are you trying to achieve?  If you have reached fuck you status, and you are living off your coins, you might regret it if you go too aggressive and end up depleting your coins faster than you thought that you would.

In traditional markets the withdrawal rate tends to be considered 4%, but I had placed that as conservative and growth oriented, and I put 6% to 10% as moderate, but that does not mean that I am correct, and you have to end up making sure that BTC continues to outperform your withdrawal rate, and so far the lowest that BTC price have gotten is in the last 18 months, the 200-week moving average was only going up around 20% annually during that worst-ever time.


No problem.  It is good to get feed back on those ideas.


With any tool, you have to figure out a way to use it that ends up working for you, and I consider the tool to be helpful in attempts to manage long term holdings.  I don't consider it to be a trading tool, even though several people want to use it in that way, which may or may not end up working out well for them.


You can lump sum buy, even when the BTC price has been going up for a while, and you can also supplement a lump sum buy by using DCA and buying on dips after you made the lump sum buy, even if you ended up unwittingly deploying your lump sum buy at or near the top.

I agree with you that the values of bitcoin been purchased by an investor will increase in the future but the price is what we don't know, the thing is that looking at bitcoin price today and remembering it's price two years back a good investor should be encouraged to buy, bitcoin is not doing bad when it come it's value and price, an investment that rises from $42k to $45k on last two weeks Sunday, and till this moment it continues to hover around and today it is 46k if any short-term investor had taken the courage I think they would have made a good profit though this depends on their input.

Some people are just watching this events unfolding without making any move, buy now no matter the amount, doing it without stopping will help you because with the recent happening bitcoin is making a good move and I know that no one will want to be left behind.  

It's merely a matter of personal preference and acting on what you know. Like for example, fundamental analysis tells us that the jobs markets "could come crashing" probably by the second quarter of this year, which indicates a recession which could bring all markets down, including Bitcoin.

- Would you as an investor with limited capital wait, or buy now?

The answer will only depend on you alone.


Merely pointing out the differences ser. Sometimes the people just post things without context and think that investing with a seven-figure capital is the same as investing as a five-figure one.

It looks egotistical but I agree because this is an investment where every decision comes back to you. However, it cannot be separated from making decisions wisely, the point is that there is always the option to consider, no matter how small, in order to minimize the purchase of fomo. This is intended so that we remain aware that any investment has its own risks, including Bitcoin.

Based on my experience I have been a presenter several times to provide material about Bitcoin. The main problem for people is that they are worried about their fiat money decreasing when they see Bitcoin fluctuations in the market. even though I have strengthened  the argument for long-term investment people assess it in different ways. Of the 5 out of 10 people who are  able to make decisions the age range  is between 20-30 years. Meanwhile parents feel that storing assets in a risky place cannot guarantee that one day they will be accessed and they need to have someone  they trust to manage them.

What's interesting is that  now the people I  have met are starting to give positive signals because they may have succeeded in placing themselves in an ideal investment situation. Regardless of the conditions  and the way they develop in understanding investment in Bitcoin I am quite optimistic because we are undergoing  a halving year to determine the profits of their assets.

Those who buy for investment purposes do not often consider how much it costs, except for someone who buys for trading purposes. Because investors usually target bigger profits for a longer time, while traders who only hunt for small profits only use very little time for that. There is now a slight price correction that is still possible for many to take advantage of if we are still confident enough for a price of $50K this month or beyond as the time for the halving approaches. So in general I still don't hesitate to buy as long as I still have confidence in getting more.

Those who are scared of seeing their fiat decreasing when Bitcoin is fluctuating are probably Newbies investors who are yet to understand how Bitcoin investment works or probably people who doesn't have an investment plan. Investment plan is really important, as it is going to give you a projection about your holding duration. When this is in place you don't bother yourself in whatever that is happening in the market, you don't bother yourself if your fiat is decreasing or not. Your major concern is just to keep accumulating till you get to the number of years you want to keep holding. People who are investing in Bitcoin needs to be matured emotionally too, because a time will come when your emotions will get on the line and this will determine your line of actions.