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    Author Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL!  (Read 220968 times)
    teamsherry
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    April 04, 2024, 03:29:35 PM
    Last edit: April 04, 2024, 07:05:46 PM by teamsherry
     #7481


    There is nothing really wrong with those kinds of conclusions - except for a realization that emergency funds tend to be denominated in the fiat in which bills are paid because assets can suffer liquidity events at the same time, then you are fucked  because everything might be going down in value at the same time, and you are forced to sell some things because you did not have enough cash.  Think about what happened March 2020 as an extreme example, but it is still an example of something that could happen and you would not want to be caught on the wrong side in which you had to sell either your assets and/or your bitcoin at a time that they had just taken around a 50% or more draw down in a day and with no clarity in sight when they were going to stop going down.....

    so sometimes if you are going to end up wanting to be cute in regards to making sure that your various kinds of emergency funds, reserves and/or float is working for you while in storage for a long time, is that you would still have the first 3 months or so in cash or cash equivalents that are easy to draw upon, maybe in a combination of physical, in banks, in other kinds of accounts that may or may not be interest bearing.

    When shit hits the fan, you have to largely be prepared already in advance to be able to weather through the situation... maybe the bad situation only lasts a month or two, or maybe it ends up lasting several months, even 6 months or more, and so there might be some point in which you are also looking at your bitcoin as one of your forms of liquidity that you need something and you are running out of resources, and surely there could be cases in which you are in that situation, and maybe there could have had been ways that you could have better protected yourself.

    Maybe I can give my own example?

    Through 2017 and early 2018, I had been planning for some construction that I knew was going to cost a certain amount that was probably equal to 3-5% of the value of my then BTC stash, and so I had set aside about half of the expenses that I had calculated were boint to come due in January, February, March and April 2019.

    As we likely realize throughout 2018, BTC spot prices went down from around $19,666 and down to a low of around $3,124, so throughout 2018, I was buying BTC on the way down with my designated cash and keeping in mind my construction cost bills were coming due in early 2019 - yet what ended up happening is there were higher costs than expected and the bills started coming due in October, November and December 2018, so really a few months earlier than expected.. and .. so there was some point around November 2018, that I was getting close to running out of cash from all of my various sources, and I ended up selling around 3.5% of my then BTC holdings (at various prices in the $3,800 to $4,200 range), and maybe over the next several  months I ended up buying back around 50% of what I had sold, yet the overall lesson was that I had made a mistake in properly planning and maintaining enough funds to both cover all of the extra expenses but also to sufficiently prepare for the level of the BTC price drop that ended up playing, which largely likely meant that I was buying back way too much BTC on the way down from $19,666 to $3,124 and I should have had held more of those cash reserves (that were dedicated towards buying bitcoin) in my cash reserves that should have had been dedicated for paying for my construction expense.

    So, the punchline is that due to my errors, my lack of properly keeping enough cash on hand, there remains a certain quantity of my BTC that I ended up selling in the price range between $3,800 to $4,200 that I was not able to buy back.. which probably was around 1-2% of my then BTC stash that was not able to be bought back.. .. except, I suppose later that I probably ended up buying some of that back at higher prices.. but even that is not really clear in terms of whether my BTC stash might have had ended up being forever reduced by 1-2% because of the price point in which they were sold and the fact that BTC prices were near bottom prices.. so ultimately it was a mistake of selling low rather than selling high.. and then never being able buy back at lower than the sell point (except for my mentioning that about half of it did seem to have had been bought back, so instead of shaving off 3-4% of my BTC stash the end result was only 1-2% of my BTC stash having had been shaved off.


    Thanks for the clarification, emergency funds are far much better to have in cash than I assets, you know I was only thinking that it was smart to save our emergency funds in asset but considering the potential risk that it could bring to our investment.

    IMO saving our emergency funds in other asset rather than cash would actually be a misuse of our emergency funds, cause our emergency fund should be readily available to use at any time we have an emergency and your experience just proves it better.

    But I already mentioned the idea that the cash in your emergency fund.. perhaps up to 3 months expenses is likely going to suffer from not earning any interest or growing but instead ongoingly shrinking in value, which means that more and more funds will likely have to be added to the emergency funds and if you are lucky (and you don't have any emergency), then you may well end up ongoingly maintaining an emergency fund for 20-30 years or longer that continues to get larger and larger in terms of its nominal dollar value, but none of that money (up to around 3 months of your expenses) is earning any income nor interest, just continuing to debase in its value.. but it is a cost of staying safe and hoping that you actually never have to use it.. but it is also likely keeping your rich too. .because you would also never have to touch your BTC investment (or any of your other investments) at a time that is not completely of your own choosing.

    Let's say that you spend 20 years investing into something like BTC at 15% per year, so after 6.67 years, you have invested a year's of your income, and so after 20 years you have invested around 3x of your yearly income, but at the same time you have continued to maintain at least 3 months of an emergency fund and sometimes you would have an extra 6-18 months of reserves and float, and so much of that cash was not really working through the last 20 years, but hopefully your bitcoin was working during that time and sufficiently made up for the fact that your various forms of cash were not working.. and you can do these kinds of calculations to figure out whether it was worth it to maintain these various systems including calculating if it would have had been better to use your BTC and/or your other investments as your emergency fund, which surely is a kind of sloppy behavior that we see people do and we see normies get reckt as fuck too and they end up having fun staying poor because they never get ahead and they are always gambling with their money.. so by the time they maybe could have had been to fuck you status, instead they are having to work until they die and they also might not even be able to increase their standard of living because they failed/refused to properly invest and/or to properly protect their investments.


    Having cash around isn't such a bad idea as long as it would keep us rich and protect our bitcoin investment( this is due to the fact that our bitcoin portfolio would be doing well if we keep if for longer ), we dont want a situation where by a health challenge uncalled for happens and the only option around is to sell off some of our asset, the thign about emergency is that we don't know when it would happen and we don't know how much expenses it would cost us to solve such a problem, so keeping huge amount of emergency funds or allowing your emergency funds to grow over time is not such a bad idea in general and it worth it even if we have to pay the price of knowing that we would be earning no interest from hoarding fait or keeping such huge cash around us.

    But at in a case where we feel we have too much of cash around in our emergency and reserves, would it be wise to put some into bitcoin when, let's say I'm having over a year of emergency funds and I feel I have too much of cash kept lieung around could I put at least 10% of that into bitcoin or keep or working for, like diversifying into some other asset ?

    once you have 3 months of cash, you could potentially have some things that are cash equivalents that might take a month or two to cash in, but they hold their value.  When you start to try to keep your emergency fund in too many other kinds of assets, then you surely run the risk of them all being volatile in the same direction, which is opposite of the dollar (or whatever fiat you use), of course, the richer you become, the less you have to worry about these matters because you likely have all kinds of various assets to draw from and you might not be as concerned if some of them are down or up when it comes time for you to use any of them, and you may also be so much in profits that any emergency might only be 1-2% of your total wealth, versus a more poor person who might get completely wiped out from any small emergency.. especially if he does not set asides funds and cushions to protect himself. .and it can take time to both build up those kinds of protection systems and also get into the practice of using them in such a way that you don't get your own false sense of security because you end up depleting them or using them and then when the real emergency comes, you are fucked because you did not maintain your emergency funds, your reserves and/or your cash float properly..

    No one is going to hold your hand either, so if you fuck up, it is completely on you to figure out what kind of balances to make to make sure that you are investing aggressively enough while at the same time, making sure that you maintain sound financial practices in the direction of how you maintain your emergency fund, reserves and float.


    When you put it this way, I think it would be better to just focus on bitcoin untill the rich effect starts to come in on your portfolio maybe when you have already invested up to four years of your income and a lot of combining effect has come in over the years then we can think of diversifying or having thoughts to put cash in other assets, yeah it would be a he'll of an experience if we encounter an emergency and we don't have any cash around, so it's left for everyone to figure out how much he feel its okay for him to have in his emergency funds( which should be at least 3months of expenses) and also when he feels he woudl be okay to start considering other asset, cause if anyone ends up fucking up he won't be expecting any pity from anyone and all the responsibility still falls on him for his mistake.

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