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    Author Topic: I don't believe Quantum Computing will ever threaten Bitcoin  (Read 5506 times)
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    June 23, 2019, 09:08:46 PM
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    After having many questions about quantum computing and posting my thoughts here: https://bt.irlbtc.com/view/5087640.msg48810154#msg48810154

    I have decided to go into more depth about the situation regarding quantum computers and their viability to disrupt the Bitcoin network in its current state and future state. Just to preface things I'm not an expert and will be only demonstrating knowledge that I believe to be correct and hopefully from this thread I'll also learn a few things and am more than welcome to corrections.

    "Quantum computers will be the end of Bitcoin"
    Quite the bold statement you say? As well as it being bold it is also completely false and far from the truth. Anyone claiming that quantum computers will be the end of Bitcoin either simply misunderstands how algorithms work or is completely void of any intelligence and just likes to scare monger. I will be honest with you its likely the latter.

    First of I'd like to just kick this off with a bang and say Bitcoin currently is not at risk of anything. Quantum computers have not yet reached a level where they would be a threat to technology that Bitcoin uses. Notice how I'm using "technology" that Bitcoin uses and not just "Bitcoin" itself? Well that's because Bitcoin uses the ECDSA algorithm and it is this which will be under threat if quantum computers reach the level that they have been predicted. However Bitcoin itself will be unaffected.

    How does quantum computers threaten the ECDSA algorithm?
    Basically a quantum computer is extremely efficient at solving certain mathematical problems like factoring integers. However like previously stated in my last post this doesn't mean they are efficient in all areas and pose a threat from all angles.  Unfortunately for us quantum computers will break several current algorithms used in daily life including the ECDSA that Bitcoin uses. However there are definitely ways of avoiding this even if Bitcoin didn't implement a quantum resistant algorithm such as using an address only once to avoid your public key being exposed to the public more than once and thus increasing the likelihood of a quantum computer cracking the algorithm. What might surprise you is doing this increases the security of your Bitcoin without the threat of quantum computers and is actually the recommended practice when sending or receiving Bitcoin.

    Quantum computers use the shor's algorithm which is a algorithm that runs on quantum computers for integer factorization. The way it does it is by soling any given integer by finding its prime factors. The fascinating thing about shor's algorithm is the fact that the algorithm runs in polynomial time but I'll spare you the details as that's irrelevant to the topic at hand.

    But lets get rid of all that gibberish and keep this simple. Basically if a quantum computer ever reached a certain qubits (qubits are a measurement of the power of quantum computers basically by how many quantum information the computer holds) then it would be able to efficiently operating without the common limitations of other computers and current quantum computers. Which then means the public key that Bitcoin currently uses could very well be compromised. 

    How many qubits would a quantum computer need to attack?
    I'm not sure on this but my estimate would be anything over 500 and we should be looking at alternatives and seriously thinking about moving to a quantum resistant  algorithm before any issues arise. Many people are estimated that 1500 qubits would be an efficent and realistic amount to crack the EDSCA. Currently I believe the highest qubit quantum computer is around 10 qubits. I've been notified that a company is selling quantum computers called d-waves with 2000 qubits but its worth noting that these aren't designed the same as quantum computers that would be able to efficiently attack the algorithm Bitcoin uses and thus I'm going to ignore them for now. Also its worth noting that its been disputed by many that this company actually holds quantum computers with 2000 qubits.

    So finally why are quantum computers nonviable to attack Bitcoin?
    So this is one of the least discussed topics when discussing quantum computers and is commonly ignored. However I'm going to go into depth on why quantum computers are not a realistic problem to Bitcoin at least not for a very long time.

    First of all there are several algorithms which other cryptocurrencies use that are actually quantum resistant. The simplest way to combat quantum computing breaking the current algorithm would be to change to a quantum resistant one. You might ask why we haven't already changed then? Well its unnecessary and would likely require a fork which have previously provided instability and differing opinions. Currently quantum computers pose no threat and by the time they do we will be well prepared and will likely be able to make changes. Basically the idea will be to judge quantum computers when we are at that stage because we will know exactly how they work and how efficient they are where as now we would be guessing and estimating which could mean we would need to change to a different algorithm in the future and introduce a new fork to the chain which isn't very efficient and we need to be efficient if we are to combat quantum computers! After all quantum computers only have 5-10 qubits at the moment and that would take thousands of years to break the ECDSA.

    Secondly quantum computers will be extremely expensive to buy and run. The amount of technology and maintenance that quantum computers need to operate is quite frankly absurd. Its probably true that over time we will be getting better at improving their shortcomings and make them more accessible. However I don't think that quantum computers will ever be a personal computer thing and more a government operated thing. We could potentially see huge companies in possession of them if they believe them to be beneficial however ones that are capable of breaking the ECDSA algorithm aren't going to be very efficient and cost effective for most people because of their limitations in other areas.

    Despite the initial cost of buying a quantum computer there's also the cost of maintenance. Current quantum computers are known to have heating issues because of the amount of work they're doing and the only effective cooling solution is to keep the room below 0 degrees. I'm not sure if you have tried to keep a rooms temperature below 0 before that thats extremely hard and expensive to do especially when something like a quantum computer is continuously generating heat when its operating. Thus I believe my point on being accessible to only a select few to be even more valid. Its not just the cost but the logistics of having a room dedicated to the computer and being cooled 24/7 for it to operate.

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