The peak is determined by pure speculation. Flip a coin, heads say it's $20.000, tails says it's $60.000. While there are some indicators, no one really knows, especially with something was volatile as Bitcoin is. The news is certainly a factor though, I completely agree with you there.

Indeed no one knows the peak until after the fact, otherwise all traders would be rich, but in reality only about 10% manage to hit it right...

Obviously the peak is a point where it didn't go further and then started going down. Doesn't matter if there are other peaks later, of lesser or greater magnitude. Just like mountains, each have their own peak, regardless of other mountains being taller or smaller.

Since you stopped at 52 lets assume 50 comes next, then 40, etc. 52 was the peak in that period. Doesn't matter if later goes back up to 60, that's yet another peak if it doesn't go further up.

So its just a way for naming an event after the fact. There are also valleys...

People setting up a target price farther then its current price simply doesn't know what he is talking about, even if he thrown in a lot of analysis and good explanation it simply doesn't make it much more accurate, why? Because unlike other markets the demand can shift in a faster pace compared to what we normally used to. One minute its going up 500 points and the next 10 minutes you will see its losing 250$ (or more) of its value, you may never know when the whales or a group of traders will start offloading their position at a certain value.

Some traders also earn when the price is going down by shorting bitcoin. So the analogy that the price must go up in order to earn profit is wrong. That is why there are other people who spread FUD. They want to profit from their shorts.


Some use technical analysis to determine this but the easiest hint is if the price goes up so fast in a short period of time, then the price is due to reverse. This is because the bulls will get exhausted and there will be profit-taking, thus pulling the price down.

But if you mean the ATH, then it cannot be determined. Bitcoin is open to reaching new ATH all the time.

That "special" circumstances varies per person. People have different approaches and preferences to think that a certain price level can be considered as the peak price. They also have different certain factors in determining whether to stop buying or not.

Once you play on the market especially in the short term trades regularly, you will be used to analyzing every price trend. Therefore, thinking possibilities like for example, there will be no pump after reaching $**.***, is quite not that difficult to determine once it reached a certain different factor set by a person.

Only way to predict the peak is in hindsight, however if you look at the weekly charts and do basic analysis of those you will see when you should get out so it doesn't go down further.

When the peak was hit in 2017, everybody was buying the dips in 2018 however what the smarter traders noticed was that it kept making lower highs and usually kept hitting the 61.8 fib and heading back down.

So the writing was on the wall that $6K would eventually break and cause a huge sell-off.

yes, if it were a "pump" then you could be correct. people decide that the "pump" has come to an end and they stop buying and instead start "dumping" their coins to take their money out and price comes back down to below what it started.

BUT "rise" and "pump" are not the same thing! a pump is a manipulation where price rise is fake so it can not be sustained and it comes to an end and drops inevitably. but a (normal) rise that is based on real demand is very different, there is nothing fake about it and people don't just stop because they think it is the end. the "rise" is showing the market growth and the fact that more money is coming in and that money is not just going to flee. in fact people are selling all along the rise but the reason why price rises is that more money is coming in than the money that is existing through their sells.

As the market is based on speculation, one thing you have to understand is that everyone is affected by the good news coming around, classic example the the CBoE and CME bitcoin future contracts offering last December 2017. Prior to that news, the market is already in a massive bull-run, however, that news really push the price to a bubble that's why we reach all-time-highs, and unfortunately followed by an imminent bearish market, because the price can't go on a parabolic rise.

The peak is a lot more difficult to predict, than the lowest price. While the peak is purly speculative, you can put the lowest possible price at about 20% lower than production cost. This is where some miners will shut down their operation and difficulty will go down.