The real question is when that bull run would come? The market has slowed down incredibly over the past weeks and has entered the previous state of lethargy that we experienced earlier this year.
The market value has been dwindling within a certain range with no signs of a break out.
I do not support the assumptions that altcoins would be dying any time soon, there is lots of potential in the market if the right developers key into the market, and the existing projects are upgraded often

^
I do think the real HODLers could easily continue there HODL, as I do think those that bought at 2017 would already sold, the ones that where thinking WTF its to low anyway also sold already and if not then why would they be bothered.....
I think its a flawed opinion here.... If it drops then I guess its not cause of a few 2017 buyers who probably all bought smaller amounts of coins anyway, I think the real dumbasses are out already, if its would be some-kind of whale game trying to push us down.... MAYBE.... but then again I think DIPS would be bought faster as you think by new stronghands and HODLers.
I have no opinion thought where we are now but I refuse to believe if we go down thats it because of that particular group of people you are saying...

Great chart and analysis! A lot of people are really expecting bitcoin to pump into 20k once the halvingbstarts in 2020 and their not to blame though cause there really is a chance for that to happen. After the first and second halving, the bitcoin prices suddenly pumped within a year of that halving.
 It could be called the calm before the storm though? The market last last week was at around 7500$ but we saw changes and currently it stands at 8k$ so that's a good start right? Besides, Q4 just started so we could expect pumps by the end of it.

When you zoom out over the long run, this bearish downturn doesn't look as scary anymore, does it?

I think the main issue right now is that people are too fixated on the fact that short term sentiment is bearish, and that they're not seeing immediate returns on their investment - which kind of feeds into the bearish cycle since weak hands start dumping their positions.

But over the long run, we have clearly defined market cycles which bitcoin has followed countless times. I do think that $8k will serve as a viable support for BTC to rebound off. Overall, fundamentals have stayed the same, if not drastically improved through LN, even. There is no reason for the ATH not to be broken as we approach halving once again.

$20k by march would only happen under one condition. The halving gets close and miners stop selling their coins. Do you realize how much money that would mean if miners stop selling their coins?

We are talking about 15 million dollars a month, so if they stop then there would be less sell pressure on bitcoin and buyers will continue buy like nothing changed at first but since the sellers are gone those buyers would increase the price of bitcoin, when it increases it will break a resistance and when that happens people all start to buy which means a bull hype and the price would increase even more.

We could break all resistance points until $20k and reach there as long as enough people join in to buy and miners stop selling and not sell until it reaches $20k, the moment they start to sell again we won't be going any further up.

That's an oversimplification of Bitcoin's supply dynamics. You're overstating the importance of mining supply since nearly 86% of the supply has already been distributed.

It's simple. Two things would need to happen to reach $20K again. Sellers need to stop selling (drying up the global ask side) and demand needs to increase. Why might that happen? Because the market may begin pricing in Bitcoin's increasing stock-to-flow ratio. An extrapolation of this historical metric puts us at $90,000 post-halving: https://www.ccn.com/top-german-bank-predicts-bitcoin-to-hit-90000-after-halving/

From that angle, $20K by March sure looks possible to me.

This is what a lot of people didn't expect to happen way back 2017 and all got surprised that a 20,000$ BTC is possible even on a short time frame. If you ask me personally even deep down I don't still believe that short price pumps are possible but the evidence and historical price charts are there to prove us wrong and indeed we should prepare or expect the unexpected when it comes to Bitcoin price movement or the movement of the market overall. Just believing on something and staying for it even if it's all going in the opposite direction is one of the worst things a trader can do because there is too much opportunity that is loss. 

So does this mean there were any indicators back in 2017 that are absent now ? was bitcoin any better than it is now ? if your answer is yes - please name those indicators, if your answer is no- then your statement is invalid, I am not sure what indicators are you talking about , are you talking about fundamentals ? adoption? or technical indicators?

I am not confirming the fact that bitcoin will hit 20k in that short period of time, for all I know , it can go back to 1k in that period, i consider that option with an open mind,but I don't say it out loud , why? because I need something to back it up with, for now , there does not seem to be any indication for it, also please notice that the market of today does not move exactly the same as it did, there are similarities and differences , notice this step


if everything was to work exactly the same, a rejection from 7600$ level to 5900$ before breaking the 8k level should have happened, but the market chose to ignore it, which means we could very likely make up for that move ad retest 5900$ before heading to our next fibo level

in short, this scenario does not have to play 100% the same, so really there is no point in just sitting there waiting for 9900$ in 15 days , this thread should not be treated that way, it's only there to serve as a possible scenario of how things could play out in the next several months.

It will not a long time for bitcoin to reach $20,000 if the market is ready as we have seen over 30% in crease overnight during the bull run ans we are just a bull run away from those magical numbers but again the worst part it we don't know when as I am sure $8,000 is not the permanent value of bitcoin as it will pump but not sure when.