Yes, we need to break through that descending channel with authority before making big plans for a new bull market.

This high volume wicking might indicate temporary exhaustion. OBV looks super bullish though. I don't think bulls are done quite yet but there could be some consolidation in the cards:

This count is still holding on:

I have an alternate theory. It's based on this idea in Elliott Wave Theory called the "guideline of alternation":

Let's apply this idea to both the 2015-2017 bull market and the current one:



Working from left to right:

Last cycle's primary (ii) was a long sideways correction. Without going into details, I would term it a "double sideways correction" (for more info, see the section on "double and triple threes"). It did not reach the 50% retracement level and it took very long (5 months) compared to the primary wave (iv), which was a short-lived zig zag.

These distinctions become much more obvious when we switch to linear view:



Applying this idea to the current cycle: I would characterize the primary (ii) as a zig zag. Combined with the deep retracement of nearly 70%, I would definitely consider this to be a "sharp retracement." Thus, after a sufficient wave (iii) (which should surpass the 2017 ATH by a good margin) I expect wave (iv) to be a long, sideways correction.

In other words, I don't think the long term cycles are necessarily changing, becoming smaller in magnitude, accelerating, etc. I believe the corrections are just playing out differently (in alternated order) than they did during the 2015-2017 bull market. To me, nothing has really changed yet.

Well, it's another bull pennant until proven otherwise. Not much else to say:



I'm still looking for a thrust above the 200-day MA which is currently at $9,056.

This abrupt failure is just a single whale shorting bitcoin and manipulating the price.

Yes, but the mistake people make is assuming whales are always successful when they try to push the market around like that. I've seen many whales attempt large spot dumps that were instantly swallowed by the market before a move up. Those whales lost a shitload of coins. Some of them likely ceased to be whales altogether because of it.

Consider the Bitstamp bear whale. He dumped 30,000 BTC at $300 when the rest of the market was trading ~$50 higher. The market bought all his BTC then rallied to $450. He returned in 2017 as a bull, signing messages to prove it. So he dumped everything at $300 and bought back during the 2017 bubble.

He's not the only whale to make mistakes like that. They are not infallible!