This thread is not dead, it's just waiting for the right time to remind theymos of the change we/you want. According to gmaxwell that should happen around May so we have some time.
bumpity bump bump
Am I wrong or the supposedly revision of merit allowance (6 month from last reallocation) is going to overlap with halving? Interesting times ahead!
If any of you recall, last time we had disclosures of more than a merit doubling for many merit sources that was in mid-November, at least that was disclosed by some smerit sources... nearly a tripling for several sources.
At the same time some smerit sources got cut in the fail to use and therefore lose kind of outcome.
Even though I would hate to go against any strongly held gmaxwell predictions, especially if I were to be playing against some of gmaxwell's strong suits, I am going to proclaim that theymos has not specifically committed to 6 months in the case of smerits, he has merely proclaimed that he will look at smerits from time to time, as far as I recall.
Anyhow, seems difficult to wager upon theymos specifics, and even if he will tweak the smerit allocations in any kind of clockwork way because I don't recall that theymos had really stated that level of specifics with any actual words, so gmaxwell had been applying an algorithm to theymos, and maybe theymos is actually a computer program, and gmaxwell knows about that
(cats out of the bag - you heard it here first)?
Remember with the default trust, theymos said something like he would adjust default trust list of 100 DT1s at "about" the beginning of each month, but I don't recall coming across anything even close to that level of specifics from theymos in regards to any 6 months/merit tweakenings even if such past practice of 6 months is identifiable.
TLDR: I am assigning 56.5/43.5 odds, at best, in favor of smerit tweakenings within 10 days of the halvening.
The 6 months prediction came out of the length of the averaging window used by Theymos last time.
So yes, he did mentioned back in November that new merit allowance is based on the average on the past 6 months total spent sMerits.
So yes, he didn't mention explicitly another rebalance in exactly 6 months.
Just now, I did a quickie look at theymos's posts around mid-November, and I do not see anything about "rebalancing in 6 months," but I did see in the PM that he sent to many merit source members that he had based the smerit adjustment on the past 6 months of usage.
Absent more or better evidence, I have to stick with my above asserted and assigned percentages, and yeah, I am not saying that I am correct in my assignment of probability. I am just saying that is the assignment of probability that I currently have given based on the evidence that I have (and whatever logic I can muster), which maybe I am low balling the odds too much in a kind of waffling way. I will concede that I frequently get things wrong, especially when attempting to predict the behavior of other peeps (presuming,
perhaps erroneously, that theymos is a peep).
By the way, below is a copy of what I believe to have been the somewhat form message PM that theymos had sent on November 14, 2019 to most merit sources, just to attempt to refresh recollections regarding the relevant text (and context).
link=action=profile;u=35 date=[edited out]
(This PM is being sent to most merit sources.)
I automatically adjusted all merit-source allocations. The average amount of merit you sent per month (including both source merit and personal sMerit) in the last 6 months was computed, and your new source allocation was set equal to 175% of this amount. However, if this would've caused you to have a source merit of less than 10, then you were removed as a merit source.
Thanks!
