Could $6,500 be the low? @Sawcruhteez explores the possibility in his latest video featuring this chart:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYs2MQshjiE&feature=youtu.com&t=2058

Updated chart (December 19th):

Comment: Recent price action wicked just below the support level of the accumulation zone, similar to 2014 correction, and remains on the path of accumulation.

You are taking whole 2014 correction and compare it with 06/2019 - 2020 correction. There is one thing missing here. Whole 2018 year and half of 2019 where the actual correction from ATH started. Bear market is here for full 2 years despite 3 bullish months. I hardly doubt this analysis has any economical background ... just wishful thinking.

6k was the strong low level of 2018 and everything below that happened due to manipulation. It wasn't natural for BTC to go to 3k and the market showed it by sharply recovering from that low and a year later finding a support at the same level. 6k is the level of profitability for miners and it can be defended. I believe that if we dip down below it it's going to be shallow and temporary. Maybe 5,5k for a few days followed by a recovery above 6k once again.

I'm sorry this chart doesn't make sense to you, if you are not able to see an alternative perspective. Price has been falling for 6 months, in the past two years it has formed lower highs on a macro scale ($20K and $14K), so no, I don't believe there is confirmation of the "end" of the correction/bear market - as there still hasn't been long enough consolidation period in proportion with the length of the correction (whether 1 year or 2 years, depending on your perspective). The more I read people's thoughts that "we're in a bull market" and there won't be any further consolidation, despite a wealth of evidence to the contrary, the more I'm convinced there will be consolidation in the near future (if not already in play).

It reminds me of the notorious "we won't break $6K" mentality in 2018, before we obviously did.


I won't argue your extrapolation, as you failed to extrapolate the price - mainly because the overlay would be irrelevant. You have a very different perspective, that's great, but I think you're best of arguing why this extrapolation isn't relevant with a version of your own, as opposed to unrelated alternative theories. For starters, your recovery and bear trap area extrapolated would indicate a 35% drop as a bear trap, whereas price has already fallen 50+%. Needless to say, it's barely possible to extrapolate.  Not forgetting that in 2016 we had considerable amount of consolidation, within your recovery and bear trap area, so ironically your chart would only prove my point of further consolidation.

I lived thru the 2014-2015 bear market and I looked at your chart and I was puzzled and basically had to load-up the BTCUSD from that era and there is a difference and the difference is significant.

You don't have this shown on your chart but in Aug 2015 on Bitfinex, there was some event (forgot what ) that lead to bitcoin having a double bottom actually at the $165 area. I know this because I actually had a short from $300 that I covered exactly when that low broke and pretty much covered at the lowest low price in the last 5 years.

Bitfinex charts should be given preference since back then its where most of the trading was done. Had the most volume and liquidity. There was no Bitmex back then. So you should update your chart using the Bitfinex data.

if you look at the bigger picture the end result won't look as bad. the bigger picture is where price is $3200 and it goes up to $13800 then comes down to $7xxx.
in other words what we have here is the correction after a 330% rise. and the result is still 125% above the price at the beginning of the year.

and what law says there must be a certain proportion here?
i don't know of any and there is no reason why there should be any.

i wouldn't put too much value in what people say online. most of them are emotional and saying their wishes. i remember when price was $3200 everyone was saying it will drop to $1000 and they were expecting the rise to start in 2020 when halving starts! with that logic we should have never seen the 330% rise this year...

i don't really like or believe in extrapolation because i don't believe in repetition of any kind of cycles so i won't try to justify it.
but i say that if there were any repetition then it should look like what i posted above and it starts from the peek ($20k) not from one of the peeks in 2019 long after the bubble

that might have been a bad example since the reverse happened but the point is that the statements you read online doesn't always reflect what people think. in case of $3200 example all the  chatter pointed to a big fear factor and logically price should have fallen. but the reality was that most people were actually buying even though they were telling others not to.

right now things are exactly the same. if you look around most speculators are expecting a drop! they call it end of the year Christmas dump, miner capitulation, plus token scam, ... and their guesses are in range of $5000 and $6000 but as we can see there is no drops happening.

I do see this argument I'm not going to deny. Another perspective would be at $6K when the minority believed prices would fall to the $4-5K area, the majority felt we'd hold the $6K area and/or breakout to the upside, instead we reached $3.2K, that I tiny minority were calling for. Personally I feel the majority are expecting accumulation or continued bullish price, but it depends what you read and who you follow etc. Instead I feel the minority are again expecting it to drop to $5-6K, whereas we may bottom out in the low $4K range instead as few are suggesting it, who knows. The only thing I would say for certain is you can't be 100% sure on any theory, even if you are 90% confident.



1 week left until bear-cross is confirmed on Monthly chart: fact not opinion.

Updated OP screenshot, still looking good following the accumulation path and finding support from near base support this time.

Price noticeably finding support from the upper band of the anticipated accumulation zone (based on 2015 accumulation), indicating that accumulation may now be over.
Unless we fall back into this range with consecutive candle closes, my outlook is now bullish: