How likely is an average user to get attacked through side channels, which requires some physical access and equpment only available to security services and maybe some top-level criminals?
Not likely. But I had the impression that you were comparing the absolute security being provided by both and hence why I've written the post. If you have a decent amount of money, the incentive could possibly be pretty enticing.
And it's not like hardware wallets are unhackable, there has been many reports of proof-of-concept attacks on them, and all these things with sidechannels actually apply to hardware wallets too.
There is. But the HW wallets are specifically designed to try to minimize the signature that is required to successfully execute an attack. If there is indeed a POC, the attack that I've found seems to require certain level of expertise and/or time. I don't think they are unhackable but certainly will be less hackable than an air-gapped old computer.
I think the difference level of security when comparing devices that are not specifically designed to secure keys and those who are is fairly significant. The reason why you see more POC, especially ones that requires a high level of expertise against HW wallets is because they go through pretty rigorous audits than what you see with normal wallets, especially ones that actually has unrealistic scenarios for the attack to be successful.
I agree with you that air-gapped cold storage are fairly secure. But in terms of the level of security, having a separate air-gapped computer is definitely not better than a HW wallet and I think having them on the same playing field would certainly raise some eyebrows.