I personally doubt that probability is high, because as I wrote recently, the SEC is very tough in its stance on Bitcoin in terms of approving ETF. In general, nothing has changed when it comes to Bitcoin (except the price), which means that the SEC still does not want to give the green light to something that is "largely unregulated" according to them.


It is not a matter of any delay resulting from the SEC expressing any doubts about its decision - it is a matter of respecting legal deadlines and procedures. As far as I know, the final decision is made after 240 days, and it is preceded by two more deadlines in which the SEC can (and does not have) make a decision or extend everything to the next deadline.

@Coin_trader, thanks for the interesting information, things seem to be starting to move in a positive direction, and such SEC decisions give even more hope to those eagerly awaiting the BTC ETF. It is also now more than clear that in the event of a positive decision, this ETF will be based on futures, which is again a step forward - but the question is whether such an ETF will have a significant impact on the crypto market, because everyone is hoping for a physically-backed ETF.

I would not say that there is anything strange or ridiculous in the fact that such an ETF is approved, because it is something completely different from what the SEC has persistently refused for years.

One more  crypto company has jumped into ETF race. This time it is crypo lender  BlockFi  that is  seeking to launch ETF in USA. If the SEC approves this application then "the total value of the bitcoin to which the fund has economic exposure is equal to approximately 100% of the net assets of the fund." I think such an approval  would be a good news for customers of the  US lending industry.

Some details from BlockFi profile:

https://craft.co/blockfi

I think it's going to be more of a question of how many ETFs will it take till it really gets moving.
As more come to be able to be bought more people will get in, as more people get in even more will be bought.
The 1st few, although important may not move the price in an large way until there is 'critical mass'.
What the number is to active critical mass, I have no idea.

-Dave

The first approval will cause a domino effect. Four years ago, in 2017 we did not have any exchange with Bitcoin Futures but in December 2017, we had two exchanges: CBOE and CME.

Now only CME is still providing Bitcoin Futures but they are pioneers for Bitcoin Futures and today we have many crypto exchanges with Bitcoin Futures.

Next four years, we will see Bitcoin ETF is something normal after the first Bitcoin ETF approval this year, if SEC approves it.

There ETF was already sold out to the public since October 18. I can't fully verified what you are talking about since your reference is there Form N-1A and it was use for  a new open-end mutual funds for there opening on 18.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/19/first-bitcoin-futures-etf-rises-2percent-in-trading-debut.html

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VanEck has also been approved to launch Bitcoin futures ETF to trade next week

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, has likely approved asset manager VanEck’s Bitcoin Strategy exchange-traded fund (ETF), with trading expected to begin on Monday.


Link : https://cointelegraph.com/news/vaneck-bitcoin-strategy-etf-will-likely-launch-next-week-as-crypto-prices-reach-aths

Competition is always good for every user, because a number of the same services on the market must compete to gain as many customers as possible, and they can only do so if they offer lower prices. I was quite surprised when I read how unfavorable this futures-based ETF actually is - and that may explain why the price of BTC drop after the media successfully sold the news and a new ATH was reached.

I guess people have very negative connotations when it comes to futures trading, obviously they remember the end of 2017 and CME futures.

Well SEC seems not really prepared for this, They just want to approved some of the ETF to have a trial and observe the effect out of it. Bitcoin price moves up and down with a huge spread, I think this volatility cause by the ETF makes the SEC rethink and evaluate first on what will be the effect in the future if they still proceed on widening the acceptance of Bitcoin ETF. Me myself is actually not happy on the result. Whales is playing the market and enjoying the benefits of pump and dump due to speculation and manipulative media just to control retail tradrers decision on holding Bitcoin. Seeing Bitcoin trading below it's ATH for a week makes me scared that something big correction is inevitable since ETF hype was already and we can't expect more this year base on this recent rejection.