4. Futures ETFs Log Minimal Roll Costs
Though we were worried about Bitcoin futures ETFs' roll costs, they've been muted, with the ETF trailing spot by 2.16% since their October 2021 launch, which includes fees. There are two key reasons, we believe. First, Bitcoin entered a bear market within a month of BITO's introduction and the futures curve hasn't had significant contango. Second, the CME Bitcoin futures market matured significantly as institutions entered and made it more efficient. Institutions likely arbitraged away much of the profitable carry trade by hedging futures positions with spot positions.
Though we expect the futures market to act relatively efficiently, a sharp bull market alongside steep contango could spur significant underperformance for these products when compared with spot Bitcoin exposure. (08/23/22)

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8. Volume Dominance Has Evaporated in 2022
GBTC dominated Bitcoin fund trading globally in 2021, with more than $370 million in average daily notional trading, despite its over-the-counter status. But overall volume is down in 2022 and so is GBTC's ranking. ProShares' BITO has taken the top spot at $170 million a day, followed by GBTC's $138 million. BTCetc's BTCE in Germany is the most traded international fund at $20 million and Purpose's BTCC leads in Canada. Spot Bitcoin ETPs are available in Brazil, Canada, Switzerland,Sweden, Germany, France and Australia.
GBTC and BITO's combined volume indicates to us that a US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF would likely dominate global cryptocurrency-fund trading. The SEC has repeatedly rejected ETF proposals, citing concerns about market oversight, but we believe 2023 may be the year for a US spot Bitcoin ETF launch. (07/11/22)

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12. Competing With Growing Stable of Bitcoin Funds The SEC's repeated rejection of spot Bitcoin ETF proposals helped GBTC peak at $44 billion in assets despite trading over the counter and charging 2% annually. GBTC launched in September 2013 as a private trust and has benefited from that first-mover advantage, but US Bitcoin futures ETFs that
launched in 2021 are chipping away at its lead. GBTC still dominates in assets globally, partly because it can't offer redemptions. Its fee is substantially higher than the average ETP's, especially when compared with new launches, such as one in France that charges no fee and makes money by lending Bitcoin.
GBTC's inefficient structure underpins its poor performance vs. peers. (07/22/22)
