Reserved 2

Opening Post 2: Getting started – assessing personal financial situation (in relation to ability to invest in bitcoin)

First things first, no?

Before any of us invest into anything, we should strive to figure out our own situation and individual circumstances to the best of our abilities.  Of course, we do not necessarily want the perfect to become the enemy of the good, but at the same time, if we cannot figure out various aspects of our own personal circumstances, then any investment that we make, whether it is into bitcoin or into some other investment, we may well devolve into gambling rather than investing.

These 9 principle individual factors that influence your decision whether to invest into bitcoin and how to invest into bitcoin have financial, skills and psychological components that include:

1)   your cashflow (which also includes ideas of income versus expenses and surely discretionary income is the difference between income and expenses),

2)   how much bitcoin you have already accumulated,

3)   your other investments (including considering your emergency fund, your float and your reserves - which are usually kinds of liquid ways to hold value in cash, dollars and/or your native currency in away that many of your expenses tend to be denominated),

4)   your view of bitcoin as compared with other investment possibilities,

5)   your timeline,

6)   your risk tolerance,

7)   your time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets, which includes figuring out the extent that you are in BTC accumulation, maintenance or liquidation stage),
 
8 )   your abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time,
 
9)   your considering your time, your abilities and whether to trade, reallocate from time to time, to use of leverage and/or to use financial instruments... (and for sure the use of financial instruments, leverage and margin trading involve higher level skills and are not even necessary to still become richie in bitcoin's already existing asymmetric bet.)

These are ongoing areas in which anyone should be working upon without necessarily concluding that they need to perfect all of them or even to perfect any one category prior to being ready to start investing into bitcoin.. whether that is investing with their time, their energies and/or their finances.

I will say straight up that it can take a pretty long time to figure out all of these factors, and even if you do not know the exact answers for each or any of the categories, that lack of perfect knowledge should not stop you from getting started into investing in bitcoin including that you can continue to learn and to improve upon each of the areas (and all of the areas) to better get to know yourself and your particulars with practice and continued attempts at application and tweaking along the way.

In the near future, I will be fleshing out the above 9 categories a bit more and adding them here.. but just my providing the above 9 categories should already be helpful for anyone investing into bitcoin and the main aspect still remains that bitcoin investors should be spending some time figuring out some of the application of each of these ideas for themselves.


ONLY after we go through some preliminary steps of understanding our own situation in respect to the above categories, then we should be able to set our BTC investment target allocation, and of course, our target could change over time, so if we are an already established investor with several investments and a decently long history of investing that has allowed us to accumulate investment assets.. perhaps over 10 years or more, then we might well decide to get off of zero and have a BTC investment target anywhere between 1% and 10% of our total investment portfolio.  The 1% to 10% range is a starting out area, and of course the more that we learn about bitcoin might cause us to gravitate to some level outside of the range.  I would suspect that the more that anyone studies bitcoin should cause him/her to go higher in terms of allocation and perhaps above the 10% level.  Furthermore, the more bullish we are about bitcoin would cause us to gravitate towards the higher end of the range and the more bearish (or timid) that we might be about bitcoin would cause us to gravitate more towards the lower end of the range.

If we happen to be a less established investor and we have no other assets, we may well allocate all of our investment into BTC until we reach a certain level that would thereby allow us to diversify after we had already reached a certain level of investment whether that is $10k or $100k or some other amount would be our determination regarding if we might need to start to diversify into other investments besides having everything into bitcoin.

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The power of compounding.

There surely is a certain power to compounding.  Let's imagine a hypothetical purchase of 20 BTC starting out with $5k invested in 2015... **(so that is about an average of $250 per BTC). It would just take a few of the compounding events to really start to feel the power of the compounding..   Even if you were to start to cash out 20% of your BTC stash after 10 or 11 compounding events, you would not deplete your BTC by cashing out in such a manner.

**this example was inspired by my earlier post on the topic.

1) $250 to $500     = $10k  (early 2015 to mid-2016)

2) $500 to $1,000     = $20k (mid-2016 to late 2016)

3) $1,000 to $2,000     = $40k  (late 2016 to mid-2017)

4) $2,000 to $4,000     = $80k  (mid -2017 to early 2020)

5) $4,000 to $8,000     = $160k (late-2017 to late 2020)

6) $8,000 to $16,000     = $320k (late 2017 to late 2022)

7) $16,000 to $32,000     = $640k (late 2017 to late 2024?)

8 ) $32,000 to $64,000     = $1.28 million (early 2021 to ?)

9) $64,000 to $128,000     = $2.56 million  (Early 2021 to ?)

10) $128,000 to $256,000     = $5.12 million (?)

11) $256,000 to $512,000     = $10.24 million   (?) (20 BTC) (otherwise if spending 20% reduced to about $8.192 million with a remaining stash of 16 BTC)

12) $512,000 to $1.24 million     = $20.48 million (?) (20 BTC) (otherwise if spending 20% reduced to about $15.872 million with a remaining stash of 12.8 BTC)

13) $1.24 million to $2.48 million     = $40.96 million  (?) (20 BTC) (otherwise if spending 20% reduced to about $25.3952 million with a remaining stash of 10.24 BTC)

So think about it, if the BTC price gets to $500k, then this hypothetical holder starts cashing out 20% of his stash each time the BTC price doubles, he still is allowing the stash to grown more than the amount that he is cashing out.    You can work out the raking numbers with a spreadsheet that I developed and discussed in another thread which fillippone has also linked a google spreadsheet to it so that you can plug in your own numbers to see how the compounding and raking works out with various numbers plugged therein.

Here is an excerpt example of a similar but later posted description of compounding (For clarity, I edited the below post)

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Here are 15 hypothetical examples^** to show how length of time investing in BTC, how much of an investment portfolio the person has and investing strategies can make significant differences in regards to choices that the investor will have available and whether he is going to want to consider either continue to accumulate BTC or maybe to convert into some other strategy (such as maintenance or liquidation).  

The wealthiest starts out with both DCA and lump sum is reflected in Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13.  The medium wealthy only does DCA is reflected in Hypos 2, 5, 8, 11 & 14.  The poorest only does DCA is reflected in Hypos 3, 6, 9, 12 & 15.

**The first 6 hypos are clarified slightly from the original post.


For these next Hypos 7-9, we can imagine similar kinds of hypothetical folks with ONLY 2.5 years investing into BTC.

Hypo 7 (2.5-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a decently large investment portfolio)
This person might have invested about a total of $3 million into bitcoin for the last 2.5 years using DCA method, and maybe even lump sum investing at various high price points, so maybe has a $34.9k average cost per BTC, and maybe built up 86 BTC, and so maybe he just plays the waves and feels like he is getting close to having enough BTC, and accomplished most of his DCA , and maybe will still buy some more BTC from time to time when he perceives the BTC price to be low.. such as near or below the 200-week moving average, other than that he might just be maintaining somewhat building his stash.   86 BTC - Around $3 million invested, average cost per BTC $34.9k, valued at around $2.666 million based on 200-WMA and $4.472 million spot price.

Hypo 8.  (2.5-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a medium-sized portfolio)
 Maybe this person was investing $2,000 per week into bitcoin, and invested around 264k into bitcoin and accumulated about 9.1 BTC, and likely this person is not quite feeling as if he has enough BTC.....9.1 BTC - Around $264k invested, average cost per BTC $29k valued at around $282k based on 200-WMA and $473k spot price.

Hypo 9 (2.5-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin without any kind of investment portfolio), and has been investing $100 per week into bitcoin, and maybe invested around $13k into BTC and accumulated nearly 0.5 BTC.  This person still is considering that he is quite far from having enough BTC, even though he feels pretty comfortable about his investment to date including that he has built up his emergency fund, his reserves and his float, yet he is thinking that he might need to DCA into bitcoin for another 5-10 more years before he starts to feel comfortable, and maybe he is going to need to increase the quantity of his weekly DCA by either increasing income and/or cutting expenses... and he is thinking that he might be able to bring his DCA amount up to $200 or $400 per week and maybe get another 2 or 3 BTC in the next 10 to 15 years or so.  0.5 BTC - Around $13k invested, average cost per BTC $26k valued at around $15,500 based on 200-WMA and $26k spot price.

For these next Hypos 10-12, we can imagine similar kinds of hypothetical folks with ONLY 1.25 years investing into BTC.

Hypo 10 (1.25-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a decently large investment portfolio)
This person might have invested about a total of $2 million into bitcoin for the last 1.25 years using DCA method, and maybe even lump sum investing at various high price points, so maybe has a $25.6k average cost per BTC, and maybe built up 78 BTC, and so maybe he just continues to DCA for a while and perhaps considers starting to play the waves and feels like he continues to need to build his BTC stash size through DCA and maybe even some lump summing and buying on dips.. such as near or below the 200-week moving average, other than that he may well just be maintaining and building his stash.   78 BTC - Around $2 million invested, average cost per BTC $25.6k, valued at around $2.418 million based on 200-WMA and $4.056 million spot price.

Hypo 11.  (1.25-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a medium-sized portfolio)
 Maybe this person was investing $2,500 per week into bitcoin, and invested around 165k into bitcoin and accumulated about 6.2 BTC, and likely this person is not quite feeling as if he has enough BTC.....6.2 BTC - Around $165k invested, average cost per BTC $26.6k valued at around $192.2k based on 200-WMA and $322.4k spot price.

Hypo 12 (1.25-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin without any kind of investment portfolio), and has been investing $100 per week into bitcoin, and maybe invested around $6.6k into BTC and accumulated nearly 0.25 BTC.  This person still is considering that he is quite far from having enough BTC, even though he feels pretty comfortable about his investment to date including that he is making progress towards building up a solid emergency fund, reserves and float, yet he is thinking that he might need to DCA into bitcoin for another 5-10 more years before he starts to feel comfortable, and maybe he is going to need to increase the quantity of his weekly DCA by either increasing income and/or cutting expenses... and he is thinking that he might be able to bring his DCA amount up to $200 or $400 per week and maybe get another 2 or 3 BTC in the next 10 to 15 years or so.  0.25 BTC - Around $6.6k invested, average cost per BTC $26.4k valued at around $7,750 based on 200-WMA and $13k spot price.

For these next Hypos 13-15, we can imagine similar kinds of hypothetical folks who are pretty much newbies in their investing into BTC.. so they are trying to figure out their attack plan in order to accumulate BTC in the coming 4 years or so.

Hypo 13 (newbie BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a decently large investment portfolio)
We would assume this person already has various investments and a somewhat diversified portfolio and of course an emergency fund, reserves and float.  He could be aiming anywhere between 5% and 25% allocation into bitcoin, but he might want to take anywhere between 6 months and 24 months to reach his allocation and to think about these kinds of matters as he is going.  He might have a lump sum that he has already authorized of around $1.6 million and an anticipated income of around $800k for the next 6 months, so therefore his total budget is $2.4 million for the next 6 months.  He may well decide to dedicate 1/3 to lump sum, 1/3 to buying on dips and 1/3 to DCA.

Hypo 14.  (newbie BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a medium-sized portfolio)
 Maybe this person does not have any lump sum that he is able to invest, but his finances are in pretty good order in terms of his emergency fund, reserves and his float, and he considers that he can invest right around $4k per month or $1k per week into BTC, and if he has time he can try to time his DCA investing so that he can take advantage of the dips... which is around 15% of his discretionary income yet he is thinking that it could take him 10-15 years or more to reach his investment targets.. yet he will keep investing into bitcoin at about $1k per week and maybe from time to time if he gets extra cashflow or he is able to decrease his expenses, he might invest more into BTC, but he is going to play it by ear with a decently aggressive DCA approach and reassess from time to time with the passage of time.

Hypo 15 (newbie BTC investor who came into bitcoin without any kind of investment portfolio), Maybe this person has to assess his budget and to build his cash reserves, his emergency fund and his float.  He may also need to pay off some of his debts so that his cashflow is stronger.  He is considering to start out by investing around $10 per week and working his way up to $100 per week in the next 3-6 months while he gets his finances in order, including assessing various aspects of his finances and psychology... He figures that after about 1 year he should have his more egregious debts paid off, and he might be able to build his emergency fund at the same time as he is investing into BTC.. with an expectation of potentially increasing his weekly investment into BTC beyond $100 per week, but that might take a year or two. and he will reassess at various points along the way.  

Last Edited: September 19, 2023 (updated 6 individual investment factors to become 9 factors)

January 10, 2024:  Added Compounding section

January 19, 2024 & February 17, 2024: specified some language in category 3 to differentiate between emergency fund and reserve fund.

February 18, 2024:  Added more compounding examples and added Hypos 1 - 12.

Reserved 4

Opening Post 4:  Attempts at BTC price predictions

For now, I am going to revive and revise my earlier estimations that attempt to account for predicting when the BTC price peak will be this cycle and also the amount of the BTC price peak (here's some links to my earlier posts on the topic going back to mid-August for BTC price and going back to early November for timeline).

I will go over price first, and I will just point out that our November 9 peak of $69k (ATH), our December 3 correction down to $41,967 and our subsequent bouncing largely between $45,750 and $52k in the past two weeks.. has caused me to consider various points in which there is likely resistance.  As I attempt to flesh out below, I have recently established that I believe that noman's land has likely shifted from $55k to $80k, and is now in the ballpark of $62k to $92k (assuming that there continues to be enough buy pressure to get back above $62k and into what I will now consider noman's land.  

Accordingly, I will currently (last revised December 16, 2021), in my opinion, I will place odds for UPside scenario within the below parameters:**

above $1.5 million  - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios  -   about .5% odds

$800k to $1.5 million  - nearly most bullish of scenarios  -   about 2% odds

$650k to $800k  - aggressively highly bullish  -   about 4.25% odds

$450k to $650k  - Optimistically highly bullish  -   about 7.75% odds

$220k to $450k  - Moderately highly bullish  -   about 14.5% odds

$120k to $220k  - moderately bullish -   about 15.5% odds

$92k to $120k  - not very bullish -   about 5.5% odds

$62k to $92k  - Not getting through deadman's zone.. (and therefore having a top somewhere in this range)    -   about 5% odds

$52k to $62k  - Topping out in this pre-deadman's zone range, and not getting into deadman's zone - about 11.5% odds

DOWN from our current range of $45k to $52k as the top for this cycle  - most bearish - but surely possible with decent odds -   about 33.5% odds

**Note: that I have been providing these kinds of percentage frameworks as a proposed way to consider the assignments of percentages at any particular point in time.. .yet not so much for whether the percentages are accurate or even that they would be the same between one person and another person or that the assignments would be the same for the same person at time 1 versus time 2 after events might have occurred causing some justifications to change the percentage assignments.

As far as timeline: (last revised December 16, 2021)

Already peaked out in 2021 at $69k: 45%

Peaks out higher than $69k at some point in 2021: 2%

Peaks out 1st quarter 2022: 24%

Peaks out 2nd quarter 2022: 17%

Peaks out 3rd quarter 2022: 8.5%

Peaks out after 3rd quarter 2022 (such as 4th quarter but before 2nd quarter 2023): 3.5%

Peaks out after 2nd quarter 2023: 1%

Of course, the numbers in the above chart are somewhat opinion-based, and may also be substantiated based on hunches that could end up being whimsical, even though they were honest attempts at capturing my best approximation of my opinion at the time they were last revised.

Just a tip on reading the above charts, by adding up the numbers in each of the charts, we could assert that I have proclaimed that the odds are 51/49 that the BTC price for this cycle will top out at some point above $92k (which might be a bit too bullish), and that the odds are 47% that the peak for this cycle happens this calendar year.. and sure seems a bit out of my ass and surely there are ONLY about 15 days left in this calendar year, as I type this post.  

Many times the discussion of BTC price prediction models will attempt to give some kind of weight to credible BTC price prediction models that are in existence, and surely some folks also try to spin their own models.  For sure, there is a certain amount of guessing that is involved in coming up with various predictions to put values on where the price has been, how we got to where we are at and an attempt to assign some level of probabilities to where we might be going.  The three currently credible BTC price prediction models that I have been trying to use are 1) Stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.

Even my outlining of what I use has a kind of loosey-goosey attempt at approximating factors that I believe to be relevant in the long term, and surely, I have way fewer inclinations to attempt to figure out short-term BTC price movements with a kind of hope./expectation that the BTC price will end up being higher 4 years down the road than it is now.

Also, in recent times, in about late July and early August, I had been asserting that it would be my belief that the $28,600 bottom was in, so long as BTC prices went above $46k - which ended up happening in about mid -August, and then we did get stuck in the $46ks for a bit longer in September but thereafter went above $50k for October and November and only recently to come back down below $50k in December.

So surely between about September to November I had been asserting my belief that the price arena of $55k to about $80k would be a kind of noman's land - largely signifying that BTC prices were likely to pass through $55k to $80k-ish without hardly any resistance.  Nonetheless, it seem that in recent times our BTC price move up to $69k on November 9, and then our correction back down below $50k since December 3rd had seemed to have had caused my noman's land thesis (at least for that $55k to $80k range) to have been mostly was negated, so based on the most recent price correction, I have thought it prudent to tentatively re-establish the noman's land price range to be somewhere between $62k and $92k.. .so at this time, we likely have our price range of current price in the mid-to upper $40ks and to see whether we can back into noman's land.. so at this time we are kind of in a pre-noman's land price arena.  

Then of course if we do end up entering into noman's land and getting above $62k, then I would expect that the price resistance would be pretty light until perhaps becoming stronger once the BTC price goes above $92k.. that is if we were to get above $92k... so therefore, I am expecting some potential pre-noman's land resistance (so before $62k), and then perhaps less price resistance in the $62k to $92k price range and then additional price resistance in the sub $100k to $112k-ish range and then again maybe less resistance between $112k and $200k. and then it becomes more and more difficult to attempt to assign any values to price ranges that are further out - even presuming that there is some possibilities to get to those prices in this cycle..

Downside Scenarios  (last revised May 19, 2022)  

As I type this downside scenario, we seem to largely staying within a $27k to $32k range, so it seems that the $25,401 bottom from May 11/12 is not currently being tested in any immediate sense.

To me it seems that after we have gone below the 100-week moving average (which is currently at $35k) and we have now been below the 100-weekMA for nearly two weeks.. we have transitioned from a bull market into a bear market... so the odds have become greater to break down than up... but still how far the BTC price breaks down is not exactly known in advance, either.

So consider the below assigned percentages as possible Downity scenario peaks from where we are at currently and where the peak of the bottom would end up being.. Based on ongoing downward momentum and even short-term bearish macro factors, at this time, I am going to ascribe our down odds for the whole down range at about 51% right now.. even though I am somewhat just stabbing in the dark, really...  But in the end, all my assignments of probability numbers (even though somewhat out of my ass) on the way down currently add up to 51%.  Note also that if the BTC price breaks further down, the numbers are likely going to need to revise.. but then at some point it might not be clear if the market might convert back from bearish to bullish.

Anyhow, here's a possible assignment percentages for where the bottom might occur from our current range bottom of $27k as I type.**

bottom of current $27k already reached and will not be breached - most timid of bearish scenarios  -   about 10% odds

$25.4k to $27k  - could happen bearish  -   about 12% odds

$22.5k to $25.4k  - pretty severe bearish  -   about 13.5% odds

$20k to $22.5k  - worser case bearish  -   about 8.5% odds

$17.5k to $20k  - a bit of a stretch bearish  -   about 3.75% odds

$13k to $17.5k  - overly bearish -   about 2% odds

$10k to $13k  - way overly bearish -   about 0.75% odds

below $10k  - not very likely but possible -   less than 0.5% odds

**Note: that I have been providing these kinds of percentage frameworks as a proposed way to consider the assignments of percentages at any particular point in time.. .yet not so much for whether the percentages are accurate or even that they would be the same between one person and another person or that the assignments would be the same for the same person at time 1 versus time 2 after events might have occurred causing some justifications to change the percentage assignments.

I remain a bit uncomfortable to go too far over 50/50 in terms of my assignment of bearish scenarios even though at the time of my typing this post, it feels that we have ongoing downity momentum for now, and I have not really figured out exactly what kind of UPpity would cause us to get out of our current transition into a bear market and to return to either neutral or to a bull market.. for sure getting above the 100-week moving average that is currently at $35k would likely be helpful.. and maybe getting above the 100-week moving average by more than 10% and just staying above such 100-week moving average for a week or longer might be enough?  I have not figured out in my own head regarding how much up might be needed (maybe getting above the 50-week moving average would be a better way to measure a return to a bull market?  As I type both the 26-weekMA and the 50-week moving average are around the $42k to $44k price arena.  For sure, there is a bit of a lagging indicator aspect in regards to using moving average indicators as bear/bull market assessments tools.  



Last Edited Upside Scenarios: December 16, 2021   Last Edited Downside Scenarios: May 19, 2022 Added upside scenarios post: November 11, 2023

i expect my post to be deleted. but before clicking the button treat this as some positive criticism

you seem to fear the bears and dips.. why?
bears and dips are not a time to get scared and drop your % accumulation. not a time to sell. its actually the perfect time to buy in more at a discount.

dont fear the bear/dips. enjoy and get excited by them. its discount.

edit to explain references to fear/bears
sounds like when markets go bear, you NOW halt purchasing and force yourself to not listen to the voice telling you to sell and pay taxes, and instead just hoard and wait out the bear

yet you have the premiss still to just 'wait it out' rather then buy buy buy

good advice is buy low sell high. buy the fall sell the rise
not buy the rise fear the fall.

you keep mentioning bitcoin price downs as a negative. dude its discount. its a positive

here you are saying in times of bear you advise people decrease their DCA amounts from 10% to 5% to 1%
when bears happen. you even call it 'reducing risk'

EG if the price tipped $20k in 2017. and you had 1%DCA, and then it corrected down. you should have increased to 5% when it dipped to $10k and increased to 10% when it dipped to $5k. meaning your buying 10% of your wealth at only $5k and only 1% of wealth at $20k
put it this way if you are happy to put in say $1k (rep 1% of wealth) a month at $20k spike. you  are getting just 0.05btc a month, however if you put in $10k(rep 10% wealth) at $5k you get 2btc
meaning you gain more coin per dollar, which is a good thing

..then when the price increases, once you are above break even. then you reduce your risk by reducing your %, to avoid you getting less dollar per coin in times of temporary pump drama changes

however your fear method of having $10k a month(10% dca) buying the $20k spike only gets you 0.5btc that extreme month. then when the correction happens you only want to buy $5k a month(5%) at $10k which is another 0.5. and the $1k(1%) at $5k which is only 0.2btc a month. and for many months you are only buying 0.2btc a month. instead of the opposite to fear which would net you 2btc a month while the $5k a coin option was discounted.

actual good investors buy more when there is a discount.. put more in per month at discounted prices. not less
basically you should accumulate more during dips.. not less
..
as for your prediction models. i do hope you know that the stock-to-flow graph everyone is sharing regarding bitcoins price history is actually misleading. this is because the daily price of bitcoin has a pattern with S2F because bitcoins S2F has a yearly average price variable included to bend bitcoins S2F curve into resembling the separate market price chart.

so its not actually comparing just coins in circulation, deviated by production rate(true s2f) to then compare to market daily price. its actually just daily price compared to yearly moving averaged price at the point of the same day. where stock is added to make it not look exactly like 2 mirrored lines

everyone knows that bitcoins pure 'stock to flow" (circulation) is this step down curve


so when the year average price is added as a variable. ofcourse it will start bending the stock curve to resemble the price wiggle

its not predicting future prices. its using the historic price to resemble the historic price

Congratulations on this topic.
Personally,  I feel that most members here are basically all in in cryptocurrency and ignore traditional assets. I am not one of these people.

I will share my personal experience and strategy here.

When I learned about bitcoin in 2017 I decided I was going to put 3 to 5% of my overall portfolio in it.
It was like a fun money, a gamble. I wasn't going to sell it on 1000%. I wanted it to exploded.

So I holded it when we jump from 2500 to 20000, and from 20k to 3k.

I just holded , and I am selling just small parts of my stash each month (as I said earlier,  I sell about 5k usd every month because there is a tax free law in Brazil below 5k usd)

This strategy fits my overall personal finance strategy. 

Most of my portfolio consist  of bonds and ETF, which I believe are more solid. I will never have less than 10% of my bitxoin in my portfolio just because I am too involved in it, and I am really bullish about it.

Thanks.  I did go back and forth in my head for a while regarding whether I should create this topic or not, and surely once I started to embark upon it, questions regarding how to frame the issues were not exactly clear to me.. so hopefully, i will at least be able to flesh out some of the first 5 pages of OP. and then not make it too confusing if some of the information is not necessarily going to be evergreen, so there are likely going to be some needs for revisions from time to time, and hopefully I will be able to accomplish some if not most of the revisions without losing the earlier perspectives.. .. I  am not sure how that is going to work.. because for example, if I end up posting a chart that shows my assignment of probabilities on x date, then surely one month or two months or six months later, those revisions might NOT be large, but they are sufficiently large enough to cause some potential necessity to show the earlier version in contrast to the later version.. .. so I am still not sure how I am going to deal with revisions while at the same time attempting to NOT overly edit out material and significant information (especially if it might show that I was either right or wrong about some issue.. and then subsequent edits might lose the earlier claims that had been made, perhaps?)


Personally, I believe that there is going to be a decent amount of nuance, so surely there are going to be a variety of ways to allocate portfolios, and for sure if you are brand new to investing, then you might start out your positions way more heavily weighted in various crypto.. and really I am not going to want to get into any of the possible balances that might be considered in regards to other non-bitcoin crypto investing, but you never know whether changes of the times might cause me to have to reconsider my interest in non-bitcoin crypto investing.  I may well try to treat aspects of the topic more generally ... because surely, I am not interested in talking about some of those topics.. especially shitcoins and then when it gets into some goals that people might have to trade shitcoins in order to increase their bitcoins, so there surely might be some tensions with some of the balancing of those ideas in this thread.

As far as making investments in other asset classes including equities and property or keeping some money in cash or even in precious metals (PMs) such as gold or other PMs, I think that it is going to be appropriate to attempt to ongoingly address those kinds of trade-offs, and for sure there is going to be some differences, again, with folks who had already established some of their earlier investments, and still those investments are not going to be going away including the idea of hedging including the idea of relative trade offs in storage of value and including utility considerations, too.  So the extent of the relevance to this topic might be more general because for sure from my perspective and even my area of topical interest, there will be more needs to attempt to stay mostly focused on bitcoin and to leave the details of some of the other possible investments for other places.. even if some general references or some levels of details might be acceptable and even appropriate from time to time. again from my discretionary point of view and also part of the justification for creating a self-moderated topic rather than leaving the subject matter to forum admins/moderators.



Great.. nice to bounce off some ideas.. while hopefully attempting to mostly preserve OPsec, too.


Well $2,500 to $20k is nearly a 1,000% (or 10x), so that would meant that you had the potential of meeting your goal, if you had been concerned about shaving some off in the upside... of course, in this thread, I am going to want to be trying to talk about the value in considering both tops and bottoms, especially when it comes to bitcoin , and surely I have come to appreciate more about ways to attempt to consider bottoms at least in terms of some of my current frameworks in my BTC management and aspirations.


For sure, we should be talking about these kinds of matters too.. if you believe that you are in a kind of maintenance stage or a liquidation stage or if you have other considerations.  I am more likely going to talk in terms of percentages rather than actual dollar amounts or I will talk about some hypotheticals in order to attempt to make points regarding possibly generating cashflow from BTC holdings.


I believe that I can somewhat presume that if you had an initial goal of not really shaving off any profits until you were at least 10x in profits, then surely anything above $25k meets your goal if you had maintained a cost per BTC of around $2.5k.. .. and for sure, those kinds of calculations seem reasonably fair, and I expect to be discussing some of that more in this thread and also presenting some of those kinds of ideas in OP, too.


Yes.. hopefully, we can discuss some of these ideas further, and for sure, I had already mentioned that if you have achieved a kind of overallocation in BTC due to its appreciation rather than putting value into it, then quite a few options can develop from having overallocation due to profits.. .. and so we know that some traditional financial advisors or consultants are restricted in the various ways that they can manage portfolios, and they sometimes want to propagate ideas about how to manage portfolios based on restrictions that they have to follow, and in several senses, individuals have way more flexibility than those traditional financial consultants/advisors, and there may well be instances in which it is way more to our advantage to not reallocate into losers and to let our winners ride.. .. so we may well understand that we are not having to reallocate merely for the sake of reallocating but instead considering the extent to which our situation might justify some (if any) reallocations or just continuing to allow the winners to ride, and in this case I am mostly talking about bitcoin, but for sure there could be some other investments such as bitcoin related investments that cause several aspects of a guy's portfolio to have  lot of bitcoin allocated into it, and s/he is faced with potentially conflicting information regarding whether it might or might not be justifiable to reallocate away from having too much value that is tied to bitcoin .. or too much value that is tied to the dollar or some other asset category that may or may not be good for your finances or for your psychology.

Some of your responses do NOT read as being consistent with this kind of an approach to bitcoin.

Many of us can appreciate that time in the market is much better than attempting to time the market.  Bitcoin has shown itself to be a kind of poster-boy for this concept.

So if you had a fairly consistent DCA strategy since your forum registration date in September 2012, then you would not have even had to have invested very much in order to have very strong returns.

If you have strong returns and a good position, then I have trouble understanding why you would want to be recommending fucking around with trying to time the market when DCA has been very powerful in bitcoin and is likely to continue to be very powerful in bitcoin.

Again, let's take your forum registration date.. If I plug in a modest DCA of $10 per week, that would put you at about 28 BTC, and of course, you can do variations of aggressiveness in order to show higher levels of performance, so even $50 per week will put you at 5x that amount at 140 BTC... So I am having trouble understanding why you might want to consider that you would have needed better performance than that?

Sure, the more aggressive approach of investing more does give you higher performance, but I still would consider that DCA'ing is a very powerful strategy that can be supplemented by lumpsum buying and by buying on dips, and no need to be fucking around with selling in order to try to time the market.. but of course, once youhave established a decent sized  BTC stash, then of course, you can make decisions based on individual circumstances to play around with some portion of your stash;. hopefully not large amounts.. such as greater than 10% of your stash, but hey, people are going to have tendencies to gamble, but I have always been concerned about preserving capital, so really I do not want to be screwing around with more than about 10% of my stash, even though I understand that adults are sometimes going to come to different trade offs and balancing than me.


Fair enough about my having had understood you to be suggesting selling to buy back cheaper, and so we agree that tends to be a risky approach.

At some point, I will flesh out my ideas a bit better, but of course, I already mentioned that I believe DCA is the crux of any BTC accumulating approach.. and if buying on dips is meant to supplement DCA'ing then of course, there can be some pre-set buying on dip orders already set up, and if you do not buy through buy orders, then you can attempt to buy manually on dips too..

Of course if you already have a decent stash of BTC, then you can be a bit more strategic in terms of waiting for dips to buy and pre-decide how much of a dip you want before triggering you to buy.  After seeing some further discussion from you, we might NOT have very different views in regards to buying on dips.. perhaps.

 

You still seem to be mis-describing what I had been saying, and I do not disagree with attempting to be strategic about buying on dips.. but I still do believe that the practice of buying on dips is quite a bit more sophisticated than pure DCA, so in that regard, DCA remains a better overall strategy as a staple practice... so that you are not spending too much time trying to figure out if there is a dip, how much dip do you need and a variety of other factors that might cause too much waiting rather than just buying on a regular basis.

Of course, quite a bit of this will depend on the particulars of the person and how much time s/he wants to spend watching the charts or trying to be strategic about his/her buys... If the person is an absolute beginner, then the best way to start is just figuring out how much of a DCA to begin to employ based on assessing personal circumstances, whether that is $10 per week or $100 per week or some other suitable amount, and then perhaps after setting up the DCA, the study into bitcoin and try to figure out if there might be ways that s/he would like to supplement his/her BTC accumulation in order to attempt to reach some target levels more quickly, if there might be some kinds of time preferences or investment amounts that are wanted to be achieved by a certain time period.
 

I would think that it is better to know how many BTC you have and what they are worth and also to have some ideas regarding your cashflow and the value of your various other investments rather than not knowing.  Once you know these various particulars, then you likely put yourself into a way better position in terms of figuring how much you want to buy/sell on a regular basis and maybe even figure out how much you need to have in order to reach entry-level fuck you status and perhaps even to be able to sustain a lifestyle that allows you to stay in fuck you status.... I do intend to flesh out several of these kinds of concepts further in this thread and to place the concepts at various points in the 5 OP posts.. and surely it seems to me that if you do not want to make those kinds of assessment regarding your own personal finances and psychology, then from my point of view you seem to be purposefully handicapping yourself in terms of knowing whether whatever you are doing is working, effective or needs to be tweaked in one way or another. 

Of course, to each their own in terms of NOT wanting to assess your finances and/or your psychology (of course, you do not necessarily need to share any of your details withus or in this thread), but I would still think that you are even in a better position to even talk about what you are doing or to criticize the views and/or actions of others if you have a pretty decent grasp upon what you are planning, what you are doing, the effectiveness of what you are doing and if it is affecting you one way or another psychologically or financially.   
 

Nothing wrong with that.
 

Sounds a bit superficial in your assessment or even your description of when you might be triggered by what is hype or not hype.. For sure, I believe that BTC buying needs to have pretty strong components that involve personal assessments, and hype (or however others might be feeling) does not play any kind of strong role in my usual assessment, even though sometimes market sentiment can be one factor to take into account too.. depending on circumstances... but my own personal approach is that I tend to think about my situation in advance and then I set up my various buy or sell orders. 

When I first started buying BTC, I also had a weekly allowance.. at least for the first year, and then after the first year, I was a little bit less strict upon myself in terms of giving myself an allowance, but I still tended to set some parameters for what I was doing whether it involved setting buy/sell orders, and figuring out spreads between buys/sells, increments on one side or the other and amounts... once those systems were already in place, then I would not tend to change them based on what other people think or where the price might be going, so that for the vast majority of instances the price would be coming to me.  If the price goes up then I sell small amounts and if the price goes down I buy... so currently I have buy orders that start at about $44.5k and go down in $1k increments down to about $20.5k, and if the BTC price goes lower than $20.5k, I will need to reassess if I am going to buy more or just HODL. 

On the way up, I have sell orders that start at $52.5k and initially they are $1k increments, but then they go to $2,500 increments and then $3,333 increments, and currently they go up to $150k.. if the price goes higher than $150k, I will set some more orders, but I have outlines that show the anticipated value of my BTC and the value of my anticipated dollars that go up more than 100x current price, and surely those are just outlines, because in 2017, it seemed that the price went up so fast that my earlier charts did not project very well up to $20k.. but I was able to extend and this time up to $70k was not too taxing on figuring out matters, and I have the sense that my charts give me pretty decent outlines and sure it has not hurt for me to reassess from old charts to see where I ended up at certain price points in comparison to where I had expected to be.  So I find a lot of that analysis helpful to figure out if I might feel better to tweak my plans in one direction or another in order to just feel appropriately balanced depending on if the price goes up and down within a range for a while or if the price ends up going down quickly or up quickly and then I have some sense of where I expect to be financially (which thereby helps my psychology in terms of ending up somewhere far from expectations).
 

Those are strange ideas, franky1.  Of course, I agree with your point about preferring to structure approaches to your BTC that cause you to NOT become too emotional about it, but I doubt that it is very effective to achieve a kind of emotional neutrality based on pure ignorance.  On the other hand, I do accept that people have differing approaches to how they deal with matters and how much they plan, strategize and/or think before acting.
 

Seems to me that attempting to be so narrow about your assessment of your overall stash and what you are going to do, then you are more likely to end up in positions of potential panic because you have inadequately prepared yourself financially or psychologically. 

As a starting point, sure it is likely good to know your basics in terms of how many BTC you have and how much you paid for them, and sure if you are contemplating buying more BTC, you may well want to consider if the price is going to go up during the time that you are expecting to hold your BTC, and so I cannot disagree that it is important to have at least those kinds of basics, yet I expect to be covering a whole hell of a lot in this thread in terms of possible matters to consider in terms of attempting to plan, strategize and to achieve various BTC related investment goals. Of course, anyone is free to attempt to employ any of the strategies that I discuss in this thread, and I expect that my sharing of ideas helps me to learn and also that I will be learning new strategies from other members.. and surely I will be able to consider whether to incorporate any of those strategies into what I do or plan to do in the future. 

I have already learned a lot from many members in this forum, and of course, I have not always agreed with the approaches of some members too.  So surely there can be benefits to having back and forth discussions regarding these matters, and at the same time, I appreciate that some forum members likely do just fine with their BTC portfolio management by employing very simple and straight-forward approaches.


Yes.. having some of the basics under your belt is likely a good thing.  Also, if you spend 9 years buying bitcoin, but you never sell, then we have already seen that bitcoin has had a lot of tendencies to go up in price and to break new all time highs, so it becomes pretty damned difficult to screw anything up, in terms of being in profits if you have spent the last 9 years buying bitcoin.  Of course, there have been a lot of up and down periods in the past 9 years too, so if you were able to buy at the bottom of some of the waves you may well have gotten more bitcoin than if you bought at the top of various waves.. but in any event, if you never sold, then no matter what you should be in profits, and so whether or not you beat a kind of pure DCA strategy might be another story.

The DCAbtc.com links that I provided earlier show that a 9 year buying of BTC starting in September 2012, then you should at least have in the ballpark of close to 3,000x price appreciation.  So there ends up being some question regarding how much you put into BTC in order to figure out how many options that you end up having from being able to take advantage of that passage of time with your investment.  On the other hand, if you had lump sum invested at any point in 2012, you would likely have even better returns than 3,000x.. so there can be some differences in personal BTC portfolio performance depending on how you went about it.. and even the pretty BIG ASS screw ups, may still be sitting in a decent place if they ONLY bought and never sold. 

So perhaps some of the devil is in the details franky1.. ?  even though I am not really asking you to give up any OPsec, but if you want to be helpful to others, you may well need to get into some details, even if none of us can go back in time and fix the situation and we can ONLY invest and take action based on what we have in front of ourselves right now and attempt to plan, consider and strategize the best plans to accumulate or to manage our BTC portfolios (if we have any) that we can and hopefully learn how to tweak what we have, as needed too.

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Fair enough.  I was not really trying to trap you into any specifics except to just recognize that anything above $25k would rise to the level of at least 10x.. so surely not a bad place to be. ..so it is kind of icing on the cake to get even higher returns. 

As I had already mentioned, in recent times I have been just using an average cost of $1k per BTC for myself in order to make some of my calculations easy, and to still be able to make various points about why should any of us care very much if we might end up shaving off some of our stash at 30x, 50x or 70x.. There is a certain amount of confidence that comes from both having a lot of profits no matter the price that some BTC is shaved off, and even perhaps not really feeling any kind of pressure to shave off large amounts and still be satisfied.


I had been considering that kind of a dilemma too and if there might be some kinds of logical price points to consider the increased shaving off of some extra BTC on the way up (if the price does end up going  up)...   

Sure, I already have a practice of shaving off BTC on the way up, and I also already have a practice of sometimes shaving some extra off on the way up, yet since I have a tendency to act in incrementalist ways, then if I end up creating a plan to shave off extra then I would end up engaging in such extra shavings within a range...   So for me, if there were a plan to shave off normally up to $92k, and then perhaps I had a plan to shave off 2% to 4% on the way up to $200k, but then if I start to consider that $200k might be the top, then I might decide to alter my plan to shave off 4% to 8%... But there could be some dilemmas in terms of deciding whether to be more aggressive or not.. or maybe make an attempt to be more systematic about it in terms of maybe treating the range from here to $62k in one kind of way and then the range from $62k to $92k in another kind of way, and then from $92k to $112k in even another kind of a way, and then maybe treating the range from $112k to $200k in another kind of way.  Currently, I have ONLY placed sell orders up to $150k, and so there are already some contained assumptions in those sell orders, but those sell orders are not locked in stone - but if I were to tweak those sell orders in one way or another, I am ONLY going to tweak incrementally, because I do not tend to play BIG... and generally speaking I can already see who some of those changes end up playing out on a spreadsheet, so I can spend some time considering whether I feel content to those numbers, even if the BTC price goes shooting up more or in the event that the numbers are not reached in this cycle and there ends up being some kind of a long drawn out correction period at some point prior to the sell orders executing.


I am pretty much the same.


I don't have those kinds of investments.  I have various kinds of index funds and then some kinds of property.. .. and some cashflowing arrangements.


Sometimes I do also consider whether there might be some other kinds of investments that I can make, but even when I came to bitcoin in 2013, I had quite a bit of traditional investments in the various index funds and I had even tried some more aggressive index funds in 2013, 2014 and maybe even part of 2015 before deciding to just leave my various traditional investments alone and to focus more on the BTC values.. so in that regard, I got a little worried that my money would be better allocated to bitcoin.. so my various traditional funds did constitute around 86.5% of all of my investments and my bitcoin were like 13.5%, and the traditional funds did end up growing about 70% over those 8 years, but the bitcoin grew about 40x to 150x (depending on how calculated).. even though my profits were probably less than 20x.. but the way that I managed my funds ended up causing the traditional funds to constitute about 10% and the BTC to constitute about 90%... and that is the current relative location.. even though sure there is some cash value in there too... that is more likely considered as part of the my moneys that go in and out of my BTC holdings.

So, yeah each of us make decisions, and surely I had considered that I could completely live off of my various traditional funds that only constitute 10% of the total value, but with some of the liquidity, supply chain and virus matters and various other weird government responses, I sometimes wonder if I could actually live off that 10% in those various traditional funds.. maybe there are some aspects that my expected standard of living is to expect that my BTC is going to continue to retain value that is likely going to continue to be much more than my traditional investments.. and whether I feel that I need to make any other investments or not would merely just for various kinds of incidental steps perhaps.  I do have some other intentions for my BTC.. in terms of possibly creating a trust or a business.. that generates cashflows.. but that is another topic that I may well be getting into a topic of another thread that I intend to make in the future.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

Bump:

Administrative details:

Revision log:
May 11, 2022
Revised Opening Post 4 to add Downity scenarios at the bottom of the post.

May 19, 2022
Revised Opening Post 4 to edit Downity scenarios at the bottom of the post.

Damn amazing post Jay

What other assets do you think are worth considering in the current economic situation?


It’s just gambling if you don’t know what you’re doing and acting blindly. Acquiring shares of companies or something like gold, silver has nothing to do with gambling, capital needs to be allocated where value is created, for an economy to function.

I have some higher education and graduate school work and then some career (work) experience that had dealt with analyzing information, critically assessing the information and then making recommendations in regards to the findings or persuasiveness of the information.

I have not really considered my research and writings in regards to bitcoin to have been very academically based nor very technologically (such as coding skills or cryptography skills) informed, but instead attempts to help myself and others to brainstorm ideas from more of a layman's point of view in order that we might be able to achieve better assessments of our own financial and psychological situations in order to help us to better tailorize our decisions whether to get involved in bitcoin, and if so how to allocate finances and energies in accordance with our personal particulars.

Surely, I feel that I have been ongoingly studying these matters related to bitcoin since getting into bitcoin in late 2013, and surely some of my attempts to help others through the forum are likely more centrally meant to help myself too in better understanding my own approach and framing and reframing and consideration and reconsideration of the dynamic nature of bitcoin-related information.


You are correct that I should probably try to bump this thread more frequently - even though from time to time, I feel that I need to tweak or update some of the posts contained within the thread to make them more comprehensive and more timely in terms of the sometimes assessment of price dyanamics that might get outdated...  or to maybe add some content on some other related topics that I find interesting and I have discussed in some other threads.


It does seem as if investing and gambling are on a spectrum in terms of there are ways to engage in behaviors that are more towards one end of the spectrum or the other end of the spectrum, but they are likely not completely pure concepts in terms of being separable from one another as sometimes folks like to talk in terms of black and white absolutes.

Trading does seem to have a lot of aspects that are closer to gambling rather than to investing, even though there are ways that trading can be employed to hedge risk, so in that regard be incorporated as part of an overall investing strategy. and likely if any of us are wanting to consider trading as investing we would likely need to attempt to trade in bigger and wider gaps to offset risks or to serve as insurance rather than considering trading in terms of shorter term profit making. but I suppose there are some folks who can become really good at trading in such a way that they feel that they are not really taking very many risks because they are striving to set up their orders in such a way to take both sides, so they are merely hedging their bets which could end up fitting more within a kind of investing perspective rather than a gambling perspective.

I would also speculate that the more informed that you are regarding various factors, then it is likely that you are more able to set your bets in accordance with the probability of one outcome versus another outcome, so in that sense there would likely be less risk-taking involved. and it would fit less on the spectrum of gambling, even though some folks will still want to characterize such perspective and practices as gambling.

It seems that when we are talking about how to accumulate BTC, I am recommending to accumulate BTC through dollar cost averaging, buying on dips and lump sum investing.. also HODL would apply within the same accumulation strategy that I am attempting to recommend.  

I do not recommend selling BTC and buying back cheaper as a BTC accumulation strategy, and so in my own personal approach to BTC, I do not really get into trading as a recommended practice until getting to either the maintenance stage or to the liquidation stage.  I also believe that the use of any kinds of financial instruments is a more advanced technique, and really I am not opposed to employing various kind of leveraging in order to front load a BTC investment, but of course, front loading does take more calculations about the cost of the loan, BTC's likely direction and having other sources of income to service the debt in the event that BTC prices do not go up during the period of the loan which would have been the preferred outcome., which of course is never a guaranteed outcome, even if BTC's price direction happens to be looking quite favorable (bullish).

So if we set our targets regarding how much BTC we would like to accumulate in terms of percentage of our overall investment portfolio, perhaps starting out with something like a target that 1% to 25% of overall investment portfolio would be allocated in BTC, so once we reach our target level of BTC or even if we have overachieved our target, then we may well have more options in terms of starting to employ some selling as the BTC price goes up, and using those proceeds to buy back as the BTC price goes down.  Surely these kinds of techniques of selling on the way up and buying on the way down could be considered as trading and gambling, but I would not consider them to fit so well in the category of gambling because largely we can preset the BTC selling amounts and the price and then just let the price come to our set amount.  

If the BTC price does not go to the point in which we had set our sell order, then no sale is made... so we can structure the various sell points in a kind of laddering manner on the way up and choosing what amount of increments that we would like to set between each of our sell amounts and also how much BTC we would like to sell at each ladder rung level. One formula that I had frequently applied historically was selling somewhere around 1% of the value of my BTC holdings for every 10% that the BTC price goes up.  Of course those kind of formulas can be tweaked to be higher or lower, and they can be framed in different kinds of ways of flexibility, but if such a formula were to be followed you also be able to figure out how much BTC you would end up selling all the way up the spectrum to various price points and be able to figure out how much BTC you would have remaining and the value of that remaining BTC at various price points up the price ladder.  You should also be able to conclude that if your sell rate was ONLY 1% per every 10% price rise, then you would never run out of BTC by strictly following such a formula... so therefore you can figure out whether your sell strategy is overly conservative or overly aggressive depending on what you would like to achieve if the BTC price reaches your speculated price points.

I got (and modified) several of my selling on the way up ideas from Rpietila's (Risto) (RIP) 2013 Thread entitled.:  (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan

I don't feel very comfortable getting into discussions about the various ways to apportion your investment portfolio outside of bitcoin and the dollar (or whatever other fiat that you might have as your local currency).. so of course you have to measure your circumstances to figure out what your balance is going to be.

I don't have any problem with suggesting that any young newbie investor to begin to build his/her investment portfolio by only focusing on bitcoin and cash, and once s/he gets up to a certain decently sizable amount, such as something like $50k, then at that point to consider the extent to which further diversification might be helpful.  Of course, the decently sizable amount has a considerable amount of subjectivity - because there might be some measure in which there might be questions about whether the investor feels that s/he is starting to feel that s/he has too many eggs in one basket.  Of course property and equity funds are not bad for attempting to offset having too much specialization but it might not even be any kind of compelling need to diversify until getting to some higher amount.. whether that is $200k or $500k or $1million.... at some point for each of us, we might feel some need to NOT have all our eggs in one basket.

Property for sure can tie you down geographically, contain a lot of expenses related to maintenance, taxes, ownership transfer costs and even an attack vector for possible liabilities and lawsuits that others can easily identify that you own it and viola.. all of a sudden there is a lien on it.  But, if you are geographically tied down anyhow, and you need to live somewhere, so it is not a bad thing to store some of your wealth and to diversify outside of bitcoin (even though we also know that property is also suffering from the pumping/inflation mechanisms of the government debt systems).


I will supplement by asserting that there is value in the fact that people make different choices in terms of how much value they want to allocate into a variety of differing kinds of asset classes - and for differing reasons.   If you consider your investment into bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar in similar kinds of ways that gold and silver used to be a hedge against the dollar, you might consider that in accordance with Gresham's law, bitcoin is likely going to suck away most if not all of the monetary value of gold and silver.. and maybe there might be some be some Armageddon-like fringe scenarios in which it would have been good to have some gold and/or silver.. but in some sense bitcoin is likely 1,000x-ish better than gold already.. so is there any reason to have both.. or maybe 1% gold and 99% bitcoin.. might be a possible way of allocating that portion of your hedging against the dollar aspect of your investment portfolio,  perhaps?