Yes, the chances were ~ 1 in 30 years. But he/she/they kept mining ... wow.

actually its not solo mining..

what you have to realise is that with all pools. each asic can go through its nonce and timestamp extra nonce permutations every ~1 second/thash. and so pools then use the 'coinbase' transaction as an extra-extra nonce by giving each 110thash asic unique hashes to then 'work' through per 0.x second of hashing cycle.

no pool ever needs 1millions asics to compute on one 'work hash' to combine together to get a single winning hash.
instead its the large farms of asics all given lots of 'work' to churn through where only one asic comes up with a win for the pool.

all that ck pool does differently is instead of taking 100% of the reward for the pool, and change the coinbase using its own address and new output of randomness.. as extra-extra-nonce
 and after a win, then separately divide up the winnings based on shares.

it instead(the pool) sets up the coinbase extra-extra-nonce using the workers address, giving the asic 98% pool 2% of the win.

every block solution ever found, is found by a single asic.
its just the payout terms are different per pool.
ckpool just rewards that asic. rather then take 100% and share to all asics.

its just simple math.
instead of an asic getting 0.00006342% per block in one pool
its getting 98% per every 1576800th block

the work is the same no matter the pool. its just the payout arrangement is different

the pool of miners was pushing 43 petahash. meaning it has 390 asics of 110thash
https://solo.ckpool.org/pool/

with bitcoins network hashrate of 165exa, its estimated that a ck pool will find a block every 26 days.
meaning every 26 days one of ck pools 'workers' asics will win 98% of that block. and ck himself gets 2%

meaning. everyone has to mine for 27 years for everyone to get a win(if workers are on 'fair' balance of random probability)
the workers do not share each win per block solved every 26day. instead per block solved goes to the specific solver.
. again in every pool there is always a specific solver(1 asic with the answer), but in most pools they all share the win even if the others never solve a block.

again. the reward sharing is the only difference, its not like other pools where everyone shares 0.0xxxx% per block found even if it was their asic that was the solver.
its that no one shares the winning apart from the block solver.

again
in all pools every block solved hash is down to one asic finding the special number out of the pool. all thats changed in ck is who gets the reward

Oh my freaking goodness! How lucky is that solo miner. 6.25 BTC x $43k as of today = $268,750.

In the Philippines, it’s worth like 13.4 million pesos, which can be good enough to buy a big land! He landed the jackpot. I bet that solo miner is super duper happy now!

 

Oh my, what a lucky hit. His faith in that is incomparable. I thought solo mining isn't possible anymore as gigantic mining facilities are increasing. I have been relieved of stress, planning to sell my rigs but this came to me and decided to continue.

Someone else who is also quite lucky.
https://mempool.space/block/0000000000000000000859aae6845872298f1b9683e222bc77bcd7996d01f99f

100TH/s is single s19j or M30s+, if you go further down the line about 6 old s9 that was released 6 years ago, which in bitcoin terms would he half of a lifetime. So it's low, almost as low as you could possibly count something as mining and not calling it hobby or heater replacement.


Lol, again ~100TH/s 

actually I'm still not sure about the thing that solo said but whatever it is he is a very lucky person.
that's over $250,000 at current prices.
frankly I envy this person But this is the gift and congratulations your luck this year is very good and this is the luckiest thing in your life I think

That's the only number that you can use to reliably determine the 'luck' (since the hash rates are calculated from shares but also vary over time)

Alas the pool doesn't keep proper luck statistics, so you can only get an approximation of the probability.

Anyway, since Network Diff is 'currently' 24,371,874,614,345.6
and their effort was 951786693123
then an approximation of their luck is 1 chance in (24,371,874,614,345.6 951786693123)
or about 1 chance in 25.6 or inverted - 3.9%
So nothing like the completely incorrect numbers being bandied around twitter by twits

However, the luck and chances are better than that, since difficulty has been rising for quite a while, so some or most of those shares would have been in a lower difficulty period and thus have higher luck in the final calculation.

--

The second user who got a block was also nothing like the incorrect luck numbers bandied around twitter by twits.
Their shares were something like "2,4xx,xxx,xxx" and again that number in relation to current network difficulty of 24,371,874,614,345.6
give roughly 1 chance in 10000 or 0.01% chance

This second calculation is all within a single difficulty change so more likely to be accurate.

--

So in all, yes lucky, but no, nothing like the random numbers people have been saying.
Does that pool owner even understand maths and statistics?  
(well he is a medical doctor, with no recognised computing qualifications at all)