Similar to going up that just because price has gone up to some extent it doesn't mean it has to continue going up until eternity, going down is the same. Price doesn't have to continue going down just because it has fallen for some time.
Your reasoning makes no sense.

I don't believe retailers caused the price drop from $42k down to where we are now around $35k+ but yeah, most retailers must have dumped too because of the fear of not knowing how far this can go but why do people keep doing that though and yet everyone wants the price to keep going up even if they are the first to dump in the slightest down move? I guess that is why they will always lose because they will end up buying back at a higher price.

People exiting is not an alarming thing. Crypto has not yet established itself to have steady numbers in users and fluctuations will happen, especially as the preoposed bear market is coming round the corner. But I also expect those same groups of people to return when things have settled down a bit, and with them bring some new blood.

I agree to the OP that anybody who would have gotten in during the last phase of frenzy and ATH, with the over the top marketing about bitcoin to 100K or 1 Million. These people are the worst hit in the immediate correction. This has been happening for a long time. Not everybody has the patience and the financial capability to sustain those losses.

Those who can wait and keep holding are generally rewarded handsomely. Just keep learning and interacting within the various communities and projects. Find your niche and work on it. It takes time and effort more than just money and luck. But yeah, nothing better if you have shitload of luck..

Retail investors are mostly newbie investors and they are more likely speculators not investors. They are most vulnerable participants in the market with market crash, correction, wash out.

The market need capital flow to grow but retail investors or speculators don't have much capital. It's mainly from institutional investors and retail guys only join when the market is very hot. They will be washed out it hot corrections or crashes later.

The market can not go down forever and if you believe in Bitcoin, it is very good chance to invest or accumulate more.

Why you think that? Maybe it's the big investors who have given up, while the retail investors are hodling strong. Without any evidence, it's all nothing more but a speculation.


Bitcoin market is not strongly tied to news and sentiment. The recent rise from a correction of $30k to the new ATH happened without any notable news, really. And now it's falling without any significant news too. The crash is happening because stocks are crashing, and because Bitcoin market in general cools off because the rally has ended.

We are also retail users and i have not sold in panic.

I feel that retail capitulation was in December. Many indicators show that most weak hands were actually flushed back then. You can find a number of similarities in the current correction with the ones in the past, especially if you look at the RSI.

The first big weak hand flush out was in 2020 when we hit 30k. Then scared retail investors waited longer, so they did not enter at 40k, most of them waited longer to around 60k, which is why we had a higher high back then. Smart money took positions at 35-40k and retail was scared of a lower high so they went in later and pushed the price to 69k, but it was the same retail that got flushed in Spring, with no FOMO crowd, which is why the top was so low. There was no mania phase this time.

You can also see this by comparing the big capitulation candles in May and December. The first one happened later and went deeper down because retail bought earlier and could hold longer in the falling market. (40-30k) In December the candle started higher (50k-40k) which indicates that retail was pushed to the limit at higher prices. They waited longer with their buys and bought closer to the peak.

IMO this is good because it indicates that smart money entry level was higher in Q4 2020 than in Q1, which suggests that a low should also be higher. There's more long term holders at higher levels now than in Spring.

Indeed, Bitcoin seems to reward hodlers aka long - term investors, but so do the equity markets or any asset that has strong fundamentals. Equity markets thrive thanks to the raising productivity growth while Bitcoin keeps conquering bear markets thanks to its characteristics that make it a goods store-of-value and not only.

*Note that the Bitcoin holders are rewarded much handsomely because of the novelty of the asset class. The perceived risk is higher, but so it is the reward.

The volume outside US stock market has dropped, but this is probably a good thing.
lots of retailers are just waiting for the bottom, I suspect a recovery would be a few big green sticks for a few days and we will have more retailers going back in, and then the rest of the world jumping in again.

That being said, the biggest problem really is the entire market overall, equity market is suffering a lot as well and has been pretty poor for the past few months (if not year). A lot of growth stocks are still hurting BAD.