After printing a 7th red candle in a row, price rallied back to it's support level but is still struggling to reclaim the weekly open around $23.3K, while the consolidation remains bullish due to the rising 50 Day MA.


Despite a more convincing break below $23K support level, price has since rallied back to it after finding support around last weeks opening price around $22.5K, hence not much has changed.




On the 4hr chart, price has since re-tested both of these levels on the 4hr chart but is failing to reclaim them due to significant selling pressure as trading volume builds in the $23K range. With the 200 MA now priced close to $21.9K and continuing to rise, similar to the daily chart the correction remains bullish even if re-testing $22K support is becoming more likely in the short-term.



On the weekly scale, price has re-tested it's first two support levels finding buyers at both these prices which is a promising sign, even if resistance remains relatively strong at higher prices.


While initially anticipating bullish continuation this week, it's starting to look like a week for bullish consolidation instead, as buyers attempt to defend the 200 WMA instead.

Usually don't bother with an update more than once per day, but one thing I noticed is this correction is considerably different from the previous 3 so far. The following are the three previous corrections over-layed to the current correction from $24.6K. Note how the previous 3 were all very similar at approximately -14% taking between 6 to 9 days. It's now been more than 10 days and bears have failed to take prices more than 10% lower.



I also usually wouldn't consider comparing this as that relevant, but based on how similar the previous 3 corrections were and how this one is considerably different, it does appear quite relevant. It's also possible that this correction will take longer, as the most recent one was 9 days, and prior to that 7.5 and 6, so there is an argument for corrections taking longer and reaching similar targets of -14%, but I'm not convinced.

As notable, the break to $22.5K should have meant that price went lower, to $22K support, but instead after a new 4hr low close, price swiftly rallied back above the 200 WMA. This is why despite remaining neutral in the short-term during this bullish consolidation period, I am none the less leaning bullish, especially if the week can close above the 200 WMA again for a second consecutive week.

Here is otherwise why sentiment outlook for anyone interested. Not intended to be accurate, but more reflective of past and future market sentiment for July/August:

Quick 1hr view for the day, price has been consolidating in form of symmetrical triangle (neutral/continuation) for the past few days that looks like it's due to break already, also can be seen as a diamond pattern.



The measured move target is roughly $22K or $24K depending on the direction. With price currently above the volume point of control around $23K, as well as 200 WMA at $22.9K, it looks to favour the bulls, though the continuation looks to favour the bears (continued correction). With price in a tight trading range of $22.5K to $23.5K for the past week, a break of this range would likely see price continue in the direction it breaks.

Having touchpad trouble so no charts for a while  

I otherwise remain bullish above $22K and otherwise think $23K levels is likely to hold as support this week, even if temporarily lost in the coming days. Some selling again from $24K resistance level that's unsurprising and not really that concerning with price make higher highs, even though it'd be more bullish to be consolidating around these prices. With the current horizontal resistance being confirmed, it'd be a great time to form a bullish ascending triangle with a third support point around current prices, this would then have a nice 4-5% measured move target to aim for.

Price otherwise made a lower high yesterday which is bearish, but as resistance weakens I'm not putting too much thought into short-term bearish outcomes.

Big bounce on the 4hr today with decent volume. Despite anticipating some further consolidation in the short-term, price bounced back to the upside swiftly from the 200 WMA continuing to act as support. MAs have returned to fully bullish formation on this time-frame as price now tests $24K resistance for the 4th time. If it doesn't break this time around, the support remains the same around $23K.



The daily chart looks just as bullish as the 4hr in the mid-term. Price again found support from the 20 Day MA that is rising again, while the 50 Day MA continues to rise now priced at $21.8K. Failing to hold $23K as support would likely see the eventual re-test of $22K, but otherwise the volume gap between $24K and $28K remains the same and looks like it will soon be filled, while $20K to $22K remains strong support.



While many are still waiting for rejection from $25K and much lower prices to buy the dip, it's becoming apparent that a significant correction may not occur until $30K resistance level is tested if $25K is broken to the upside. With price finding support for the 3rd week in a row from the 200 WMA, it seems longer-term investors aren't willing to wait around for a dip that may or may not occur.

Looking at the daily chart first, as appears more relevant, price was again rejected by $24K with a doji reversal candle and has returned to the $22K to $24K trading range. As can be seen by previous doji reversal candles, this suggests continued correction on this time-frame to support. At the moment this is around $23K where the volume point of control lies, the 21 Day MA as well as a support trend-line. While previous corrections have been significantly deeper (-14%), there has additionally been a trend in recent weeks of these corrections becoming shallower and more sideways rather than downwards.



Zooming out on this time-frame, the bullish argument is far from lost if $23K fails to continue to hold as support. The 50 Day MA continues to rise, now at $21,840, while significant volume support remains in the $20K to $22K range with long-term volume point of control at $20,850. While not yet expecting these lower levels to be tested, failure to hold $23K would merely mean a pause of immediate bullish momentum, rather than continued bearish momentum. The measured move target for a break-out to the upside of this bullish ascending triangle remains +20% to around $30K, despite not many believing this is possible.




On the 4hr chart, things looks similar but slightly more bullish as price remains above all it's short and long-term MAs (20/50/200) as they continue to rise in bullish formation. However based on the doji reversal candle yesterday, I think price will struggle to hold the immediate bullish momentum and a continued correction to support is much more likely. Holding $24K as new support would be very bullish however.

On the 4hr price remains bullish, however there is an argument forming for a bearish rising wedge, given price has broken through the $24K resistance level but failed to move higher and formed bearish divergence. While this could just be weekend price action and lack of momentum, the target for a break-down would be around $20.8K long-term volume point of control if $23K local accumulation level and support trend-line is lost as support. It's worth noting the support trend-line can be easily modified to still include three touch-points at candle closes as low as $23K if necessary, excluding the most recent wick.




Not much change on the daily chart though price has closed a second consecutive candle above the $24K resistance level, even if only to get rejected by $24.5K. Ideally this is a slow break-out of an ascending triangle with a target around $29K, but there remains a lack of volume and higher prices (>$25K) to confirm such a break-out at present. Fortunately the 50 Day MA now lies at $22K level for support. Realistically price will need to hold $24K break-out level and previous resistance level and turn it into support for the ascending triangle to remain in tact which remains possible if bears fail to push prices lower.  




The weekly chart is otherwise due to close strong today at a new higher close again above the 200 WMA, though re-testing the 200 WMA for a third week around $23K remains likely if price consolidates further.
 

While still remaining bullish short to mid-term now $24K resistance levels have been broken, I'm remaining sceptical of the breakout that lacks volume and price confirmation. With the pattern of early in the week corrections before higher prices in recent weeks, I'm inclined to think a correction back to $23K support levels and 200 WMA before higher prices is in order. Unfortunately this would likely negative the break-out of the ascending triangle and further confirm a bearish rising wedge pattern, therefore re-testing the main accumulation zone between $21K and $22K can't be ruled out at this point if $23K is lost as support.

In summary, despite only really being bullish these past two weeks since the 200 WMA has been reclaimed, for the first time this month I see an argument for a deeper price correction around ~15% to $21K to $22K accumulation zone, if critical support is broken. Despite this, I still think price will rebound to upside relatively quickly finding support from the accumulation zone as well as 50 Day MA.

With price again getting rejected from $25K today, the bearish rising wedge is further confirming itself with the previously mentioned target of around $20.8K (previous support and volume point of control). Breaking below $24K will further invalidate the bullish ascending triangle break-out with a target of +20% to $29K while price currently holds onto to the 50 MA in the hope of continued upside (or re-tests of resistance).



 
On the daily chart the situation becomes a a bit clearer. Price has failed to close above $24.5K for the third consecutive day while today is forming another doji reversal candle, indicating a further correction. Price is also now finding resistance from the 100 Day MA (that I haven't previously been charting), but appears relevant when looking at price action back in March around this level, that of rejection before finding support at lower levels. Additionally the rejection comes where the long-term support trend-line of the previous wedge pattern remains, suggesting it has become new resistance for now.



With similar price movement to that of March around the 100 Day MA would look like this, there are some alternative fractals in the immediate term to consider, if in fact the bottom is in and this isn't bearish consolidation before lower lows. Typically rejection from a bearish trending MA will bring prices down to the lower time-frame rising MA, such as the 50 Day  around $22K, there still remains a reasonable possibility of holding the 200 WMA as immediate support and instead consolidating around $23K local accumulation zone. While keeping open-minded, breaking the support trend-line to the downside would more likely see $22K prices than further consolidation around $23K, even if the latter would be very bullish (negating the bearish rising wedge pattern).




Despite the short-term bearish outlook on shorter-term time-frames, the Weekly closed it's third consecutive week above the 200 WMA by +5% further confirming it as support for now. Hence holding $23K this week remains more than possible, even with prices falling to $21K or $22K levels given the shorter-term bearish patterns in play.  
 

TL:DR

As the immediate accumulation/distribution zone has become weaker, bulls have so far failed to turn $24K into new support as price moves below the 50 MA on the 4hr. With the 200 MA priced around $23K, this remains the area of support price will need to hold in order to continue to the upside, or maintain higher prices. Otherwise a re-test of lower levels previously mentioned becomes increasingly likely.




With the highest daily close just below $24.5K, the bears have now turned this into new resistance, close to the bearish trending 100 Day MA as price again forms another doji reversal candle near the highs. While the support trend-line remains in tact, breaking below $23K local accumulation increases the chances of a move back down to the 50 Day MA around $22K in order to re-test it as support.



The original outlook therefore remains the same as price continues to correct, that of consolidation around $23K in order to invalidate the bearish rising wedge pattern which remains possible, or otherwise a break-down below the support trend-line of the wedge in order to re-test the long-term accumulation zone between $20K and $22K, where the the volume point of control lies around 21K,

As emphasised throughout the week, breaking below the $23K level local accumulation level would most likely bring prices down to $22K previous resistance levels, with a target of long-term accumulation level around $21K. Now that this has happened relatively quickly, as expected with such break-down patterns and trend reversals, we can confirm the short-term bias favours the bears again. But for how long?




Despite failing to find any buyers around the 50 Day MA, priced at $22.2K, there still remains the long-term accumulation level around $21K that will likely act as the "last line in the sand" for the bulls. Though the lower level of the accumulation zone around $20K can't be ruled out for any quick dips/wicks to the downside, failing to hold the volume point of control as support would turn my mid-term bias from bullish to bearish.



The current short-term positive outlook would be that price has already fallen enough to the downside in order to find support, despite not quite reaching the target of $21K. Similar to the move from $24K to $21K, as well as $22.5K to $19K prior to that, price has since corrected -14% from the swing high. Therefore it remains more than possible for price to quickly find support before continuing to rally to the upside.


 
While this may seem like a hopeful outlook now that $25K has been confirmed as a strong resistance level, similar price action occurred last month from the $22K resistance level, whereby after two -15% corrections, price quickly rallied back to the upside. I otherwise realise that for many it's a time to panic, but personally I see it as a time to remain cautious and wait for buyers to step in rather than catching a failing knife.

On the weekly chart, after 6 weeks of bullish looking candles, this week looks set for bearish candle unless $23K can be reclaimed as support (where the 200 WMA lies). While unlikely it does remain possible, though I'm more inclined to think any immediate bullish price action would return next week, after what I believe will be a fake-out to the downside before returning to the $22K to $24K range.