Very nice! merited elsewhere.
I wonder if all criteria are independent or crossing a few tremendously increase the probability of others to trigger.
Personally, i already thought that this is a real thing, but it is VERY nice to see that the objective criteria confirms.
However, I am of the opinion (not supported by facts) that this cycle, similarly to the prior one, would have "fake" rallies a la 2019.
As such, I see 47-48K as a limit of such "premature" bitcoin rally (and 3.4K for the competitor). Could be a very fast bump, maybe to September, if macro cooperates.

I can agree that we might see another bottom during this summer or just by the end of it but I have no criteria of how to spot a bear bottom but I do know that every summer after a big bull run, BTC ended up with a sudden dropping in price by the end of the summer and this time doesn't seems to be any different. Also lately , more and more people are believing that we have already achieved bottom and we won't see a lower rate but I still do believe bear market is still in force.

I know this is not exactly the right place, but I like OP and his threads and I do think this is worth mentioning. This is going to be a crazy week, every day releasing figures starting with consumer confidence on inflation, the Fed interest decision Wednesday and then the very next day Q2 GDP.

Interest is the most important and it's pretty gnarly to think it was set at 0.5 2 months ago, but 0.75 was priced in over that period and apparently now even 1.00 is getting priced in. That's great news really because any rate lower than that and Bitcoin will enjoy a strong, strong move.

Be crazy if it exceeded 1 though...

^ I wanted to check in to see if you'd confirm what I thought happened (am travelling and am on a low-fi device) and nice to see we finally carried over.

Only small thing now is the scenario I questioned as well -- if we went right back into oversold territory, and it's a really tricky 3 days now of economic indicators coming out from US. They have had visible impact at least in short term on BTC, but there is some hope after last week's immediate strength even after bad news (CPI) that this week might not even register a dent. Let's see!

Indeed! Probably silly of me and I'm normally not even really moved by the market but I guess this time around feels a lot different with everything else going on around the economy, maybe just feeling the reality pinching in on everything not even Bitcoin related -- but it was pretty good for the confidence to see that performance after worse-than-expected news.

I'll breathe much easier if we see a repeat behaviour after today's news (and I'm actually hoping for a bigger than expected rate bump to test this behaviour).

With previous data for a Bitcoin low being confirmed, I thought I'd try give an estimate or when and what price a low would be confirmed, now it looks 60% confirmed, even if entirely hypothetical.

• Based on the average price from the low for a confirmation, this could be around +35.6%, which would result in $23.8K being the average price. This also currently looks quite likely with a current average of $21.9K, the 200 WMA confirmation somewhere >$22.8K, followed by hash rate confirmation coming at a much higher price. Somewhere between 30-35% from the low ($22.8K to $23.8K) looks plausible for now.
• Based on average time for a confirmation, this could take as long as 5.6 months, which would result in end of November, but I'll also explore a different theory here.

Despite the time-frame of almost 6 months appearing very long, now that 3 indicators have already signalled a low, it's worth noting this is exactly what happened in the previous bear markets. The first 3 indicators signalled a low within a few weeks, while the last two took a few months longer (despite the last two indicators being different). In the case of 2015 it took more than 6 months. So there is merit to this theory.

However another way to look at this could be the idea that confirmation arrives sooner, based on previously taking 7.5 months to confirm, followed by 3.75 months (-50%). This could imply that this low could be confirmed again 50% sooner, even though there are only two sets of data to compare against (noted). This would however mean from first confirmation to last, it could take only 8 weeks: beginning of September.

Personally I'm inclined to believe that a confirmation would arrive sooner than later, such as early September, even early August (8 weeks from the $17.5K low rather than first confirmation), given the 200 WMA has already nearly been reclaimed on the weekly time-frame and it doesn't seem like hash rate will need another 4 months to recover, more like only another month or two based on current data. The alternative to this would be price falling back into the $18K to $22K range for a few months or so, while not forming a new low, and therefore neither 200 WMA nor hash ribbons indicator would confirm a low for a while.

TL:DR: Based on averages from previous confirmations of a low, this could be around $23.8K, and otherwise take somewhere between 8 weeks (until September) and 6 months (November).

Well yes, these indicators generally speaking are mathematical equations, attempting to calculate future results. This is how most indicators work. It's also not designed to work in every cycle either. For me now that I'm 80% confident the low is in, that won't change even with the final indicator signalling a low, as there will always be a up to a 20% probability that all 5 of these indicators are wrong this time around.


Nothing is 100% reliable or accurate. But I'd argue these indicators are in fact designed for the long-term, hence they only previously provided buy signals after a low is formed, even if at considerably a higher price. The main reason these indicators won't be right this time around is if the macro bull market of Bitcoin (10 year long uptrend) comes to an end, as all these indicators are based on a continuation of a long-term bull market.

As an update to this list, the Bitcoin Hash Ribbons indicator is currently signalling a buy this week after hash rate spiked to the highest level since July 30th, though this signal is not yet confirmed on other time-frames. While tempting to include the $20,835 buy signal on the Daily chart at recent lows, will wait for confirmation on the Weekly chart (whether that be at a higher or lower price) before feeling satisfied that the criteria for a Bitcoin low has been reached. While others are feeling bearish now prices have corrected to $21K, I'm instead feeling more bullish about the low being in.