I don't claim to be any kind of Bitcoin price analysis expert, especially when it comes to trying to figure out short-term BTC price moves, which can be all over the place.. and we do seem to have historical tendencies to get surprised in both directions, from time to time.. even though sometimes, it seems that we might have high levels of confidence in the direction of a trend, until it reverses.. which is not frequently clear when it will reverse, until after such trend reversal has already happened.
And I'm sure that's not your typical, but the long discussion that fills the bitcointalk space and the explanation you give about bitcoin is enough to mark/recognize who JJG really is. It's hard to follow your long discussion if someone is not focused and doesn't have a broad understanding, because I'm sure anyone will find it difficult to provide arguments that are in accordance with the facts that happened, especially me?
Well, if you remain interested in the bitcoin topic, then you can keep chipping away at it. There is quite a lot to bitcoin, and surely, I tend to have some angles that are interesting to me and I have certain angles in which I like to attempt to attack (or address) certain issues, yet there are a lot of areas of bitcoin that I do not understand very well (such as some of the technical matters and even reading the code or being able to code), and to the extent that some of the bitcoin-related topics might include technical (or coding) angles, then I have to rely upon the opinions and the assessments of members who are more informed on those kinds of topics and who seem to be presenting some of those subject matters in ways that seem to be sufficiently fair and reasonable from what I do feel that I am able to grasp.
Since I have been studying the BTC space for more than 9 years, I have come up with a decent number of ideas and frameworks that seem to help me regarding many times that people try to make claims about what the BTC price is doing and why it is doing what it is doing, which also might include implications regarding where we came from (and why), where we are at and where we might be going, so no matter what it becomes a lot more difficult to understand what might happen in the short term than to have some greater confidence about longer term BTC price prospects or the ongoing strength of bitcoin's investment thesis.. especially referring to long term reasons to be in bitcoin, even if any of us might be scared of bitcoin, we still might want to make sure that we are in, and perhaps the more scared that we are would justify a smaller position size rather than not being in at all.
Very often experience can bring someone to know more, that's why we are always taught by experience about how someone will grow and develop, the simplicity and risk contained in bitcoin makes people think about diversity, regardless of the long term or short term chosen as an investment model which is conducted. The fear that comes from ignorance, that's the biggest reason for doubts about bitcoin, then how can other people trust it, because these kind of people act on knowledge and know the long-term prospects of bitcoin in an ever-evolving technological format.
Sure always be curious, attempting to learn, humble, and trying to engage in some level of critical thinking and skepticism in order that you can try your best to come to your own conclusions - including that some times there might be needs to change your mind, change your opinion, change your perspective/framework and/or change your application of what you know to your actions, including whether or how you might invest in order to accumulate BTC, how you might maintain your BTC stash if you feel that you have already accumulated a large enough stash, or how you might engage in liquidation behaviors whether all at once or just shaving some off from time to time... maybe try to make learning and involvement in bitcoin fun too.... if possible.
Frequently I have also fought against claims regarding bitcoin being correlated to equity markets or that the Fed controls BTC prices, and that kind of bullshit, even though we know that bitcoin does tend to react to various liquidity dynamics, and sometimes will react more extremely to high liquidity or low liquidity situations, such as when everyone is trying to get into dollars in March 2020, they were getting out of bitcoin, but then bitcoin sprung back way larger too.. which would be far from proclaiming that bitcoin is correlated to traditional markets, even if we cannot escape that in various short-term price moves we are going to experience some of the back and forth momentum dynamics, including bitcoin's performing in ways that do not align with proclamations by pro-bitcoiners that bitcoin is a "good store of value" - even while it is experiencing short term volatility that is more extreme than any other asset class - (I am not including shitcoins in this assessment that compares legitimate asset classes because shitcoins largely just correlate to bitcoin and piggy back on bitcoin price dynamics, since bitcoin is the leader in the "crypto" space to the extent anyone wants to attempt to suggest that there is any meaningful asset class that is called "crypto" rather than figuring out that bitcoin is the price leader in that class and it is erroneous to be attempting to assess "crypto" without figuring out bitcoin first).
The store of value is one of the hallmarks of bitcoin that many people know about and on the other hand this concept tends to be associated with long-term assets that can bring big changes to the store of money. While the pro-bitcoiners will continue to try to make bitcoin fall to a priceless price, thus playing any issue to bring it down, such as the case of inflation and interest rates played by the Fed, but various methods are used and in the end they failed to control it. This is where the privilege of bitcoin that we can be sure not found anywhere else.
I also don't really like Shitcoin right now, for some reason we already know, so putting it in an asset class comparable to bitcoin can never be correlated, because the relationship and the power of maintaining the value of holding it are very differentThere are certain mistakes that can be made in terms of how any of us might conceive of bitcoin, including that there can be long term bitcoiners who hold bitcoin, but they still do not really know what bitcoin is, beyond NGU (number go up) technology... There are also a lot of folks who hold bitcoin, but the fact of the matter is that they are really low coiners because they hold small amounts of value in bitcoin because they are afraid to allocate more value into bitcoin, so surely the low coiners are better off than the no coiners, but the low coiners might end up feeling regrets later because they ONLY realize and appreciate that they had underallocated value towards bitcoin for the wrong reasons.... and if BTC's value ends up going up (or should I say when?), then these underallocated (low coiners) will feel quite a bit of regret that they had not been more assertive in their bitcoin allocation rather than their whimpy mindset in regards to it...(perhaps a failure/refusal to study bitcoin more in order to attempt to understand the thing that they are investing into a wee bit MOAR better)... and I am not even proclaiming that there are any guarantees that bitcoin's price is going to go up.. but there are still ways to be somewhat aggressive in your investment into bitcoin without going overboard in terms of figuring out the possibilities of your own finances and psychology... so for example, I could say that the beginner could consider allocating anywhere between 1% and 25% of his/her quasi-liquid investment portfolio into bitcoin, and such person is clearly capable of allocating somewhere in the middle, such as 10%, but instead s/he purposefully chooses to ONLY allocate 1% into bitcoin, because s/he is too scared and too lazy to actually research into what bitcoin is... and maybe distracted into putting value into USA IBonds that earn "yield" or some other bullshit that hardly helps to attempt to appreciate that the reason that the US Govt is offering such high interest rates on its IBonds is because some countries are refusing to buy USA debt... so the USA has to offer high rates in order to attract investors who likely would be better off allocating way more into bitcoin instead of getting distracted into some investment areas that are likely not as good as they seem to be.
Having said all of that, I get the sense that bitcoin's seemingly short term correlation to traditional asset classes, such as stocks will likely continue to have various periods of short term correlation, even though the fact of the matter remains that bitcoin is not correlated to those asset classes in any kind of meaningful way in terms of what it is and what are it's fundamentals in being an asset class that has never previously existed, and so the periods in which bitcoin has a step-ladder kind of upward shift in its price curve can happen at any time, and then bitcoin will go back to being "correlated" except for periods in which it may well jump up a bit.. whether that is 10x, 5x or even some smaller variation, such as 2x, and then it will go back to looking like it is "correlated" and the bitcoin naysayers, no coiners, precoiners, fence sitters, shitcoiners will bash on bitcoin and proclaim that it is correlated, and in the mean time wealth will continue to transfer into bitcoin while many folks don't seem to know what the fuck is going on, and sure none of what I am saying is guaranteed to happen, but surely it seems good to continue to accumulate (and allocate) value into bitcoin in order that you personally are able to continue to profit from ongoing transfer of wealth that frequently is difficult to identify as happening.. when it has been happening for close to 10 years, if not longer and there is no real evidence to show that the investment case for bitcoin is getting any weaker but instead is likely getting stronger rather than weaker and a decent number of normies will continue to get distracted into failing/refusing to invest/allocate into bitcoin or into selling whatever bitcoin that they had accumulated because they do not understand the value of the asset that they hold (referring to bitcoin).
In the end everyone wants to be seen as independent in getting financially or in other words rich. In the short term maybe bitcoin is correlated with stocks or traditional assets that you say, because both of them run with certain conditions that affect them, but in the long term bitcoin fundamentals in maintaining value almost nothing can offset, be it gold, stocks or assets other traditional. There is plenty of evidence for those who want to see the power of bitcoin in maintaining value and even if it has to go through cycles. The last 5, 7, 8 and 10 years are a portrait of bitcoin's journey for those who fail to understand that bitcoin is able to maintain asset value, so that this period will be full of regret for those who refuse to accept bitcoins.
I think that there was a paper by Fidelity in 2014 or so, or maybe it was a bit later than that, and they had already recognized and appreciated that bitcoin was not correlated to any other asset class
(I did a quick look and I could not find the article;.. maybe it was Ark investing that wrote the article? I cannot remember, exactly)... Sure, bitcoin might appear to be correlated in the short term, but you are going to get yourself into trouble if you really buy into those correlation ideas when you are attempting to assess bitcoin as a possible long term investment. In part, my point is that there have been decent articles and assessments made regarding bitcoin's value (investment) proposition that go back since when it was first starting to get a price, and it seems that some people come to see, appreciate and understand some of the value propositions sooner than others.
And probably, there is no need to attempt to "get rich quick" because it is likely that your chances to reach fuck you status become greater if you create a solid investment plan into bitcoin that includes your attempt to NOT lose your bitcoin, and under traditional investment maybe you might get to fuck you status in 30-40 years (and you might not even get there since value gets eroded under you on an ongoing basis); however, with bitcoin you may well be able to cut down your timeline in half towards 15-20 years, even though there still are not any guarantees, but it still seems like a good idea to have some kind of investment plan that includes bitcoin.
So part of my point would be not to get too distracted by the various magical games played by the Fed and other various traditional financial/government institutions that are likely either desperate and/or trying to talk you out of your coins... even if they surely might have some short-term success in pushing or keeping the BTC price down, but there are no guarantees that they will be successful in that either.
I had been through some tough times on the road to financial stability, so didn't really care for the magic that traditional financial institutions, governments, and even Fed news were trying to deliver. Because almost a decade of involvement in bitcoin has provided ample evidence to keep cash flows more stable. Actually I intend to take a bigger share for the next investment period, like the pattern I explained in the previous post and refers to the level of financial ability to compensate.
Are you saying that you have been investing in bitcoin for nearly 10 years? So you been in bitcoin longer than me? I see your forum registration date as late 2015. I am late 2013 when I started in bitcoin so just a bit over 9 years of learning and building my stake into bitcoin and then attempting to maintain such investment portfolio with a bitcoin allocation that feels comfortable to my situation.
