value is below market. premium is above market
it appears your numbers for 2022-23 are average not value

your formulae numbers are subjective
8 cent electric of a 12 month ROI

hmm



my numbers are
from efficient asic farming mining in low electric of $18k for this fortnights mining rate
to an inefficient asic hobby mining in high electric of $118k for this fortnights mining rate

which is an average of ~$68k
value: 18k
average: 68k
premium: 118k

as for your numbers for 2018.. that is way above premium for that period even for high electric regions

my math is based on a 2 year ROI
because industrial mining farms buy hardware that lasts 2 years and electric contracts that are bought for upto 2 years so the number of coins earned over a 2 year period become the math.

and industrial electric is cheaper then $0.08 at $0.04
and the hobbiest is electric is more then $0.08 at upto $0.48

..
that said you have a good bases of looking beyond the markets for underling value. but your math is a lil out, compared to rational expectations of what real mining farms do

and another hint. the math you show saying how you are using 1 year measures of coins earned. and then 6 months and then fortnightly difficulty changes.. yet your charts changes daily so your not exactly sticking to the difficulty steps of one change a fortnight. using average hashrate of that fortnight

most miners dont account for costs on the daily. they take the monthly costs or the 2 yearly costs and compare it to coins earned over those averages

It is true in nearest term not in too long term.

People are fearful of dumps from people who will receive compensation from Mt. Gox case because they know those victims got their bitcoins at very cheaper price than price in 2023.

Similar story for miners. Different miners have different entries and entry cost to mine Bitcoin so they will have different net profit or net loss at a time. Sometimes I saw whale alerts that very old bitcoins years ago were moved and people felt panic. Maybe it is a same fear as they thought that if a miner from 2011 moved their bitcoins, that can be a plan to sell it on exchanges.

However I am aware that it is part of market manipulation game.

This Realized price is useful for Bitcoin investors and their DCA plans.

good question from odolvlobo
because i too have coins from that period too

there is a thing called REALISED price.. (and realised value)
the price of the time of acquiring coin

i have realised price of $6 and also some in 2014,18,22(basically after each correction)

this value measure the OP made, is a bit off.. by not using real world situation to decide ROI, or a base electric cost of the real world.. .. im not sure why he chose $0.08 as its not representing the lowest(value) cost
but is supposed to be about the realised value of todays acquired coins. not estimating todays value of all coins of circulation based on past acquisition to set a value today for past coin

also

VALUE is not the cost of all miners. value is a BASE/cheapest cost of the most efficient miner. whereby its the cheapest(aka value)
where everyone on the planet cannot mine cheaper than that point thus no one would want to sell coins acquired for more, to sell for less. thus becomes a great support


there are many other potential miners that if they mined today they would make a loss. EG those living in japan and hawaii which would be a premium measure
those people are not miners today. they are buyers. after all why would you mine for $118k a coin when you can market buy for 21% of premium

todays numbers are $18k value(cheap).. $118k premium
dont expect markets to want to go below value or speculate above premium

its why 2021 didnt top $75k because that was the premium then (value: $10k premium$75k)
2022 was $15k value 95k premium but the market only speculated $15.5-$50k

in 2012 it was $3-$40 (value-premium) at the start and then $7-$90 (value-premium)
by winter .. it was a halving year ofcourse

the market of the time of the realised value only trades within that range but never exceeds it

your $5 and my $6 of 2012 were not at "value" (base cost) because our electric were not the cheapest for that year to be the most economic/efficient to be value

the value of 2012 was start of year $3 value end of year $7 value
the premium of 2012 was start of year $40 premium end of year $90 premium
the market moved inside that value-premium window

moving on
so there is this other thing called "store of value" which is subjective to individual coins like realised value is

EG lets say you mined in january 2012.. ($3 value)
your $5 coin had a 60% store of value. where only $3 of your $5 was secured by value where no one would want to sell below value because no one could mine below $3
and so you had a 40% risk of loss in january

by summer your $5 was 100% store of value. by winter it was 140% store of value meaning you were making profit (and today in 2023. just like me, them coins from so far back are worth alot more now.aka mega profits)

but to those buying coins today.. with mining at $18k-$118k dependant on location.. anything $18k is good value to them..

today

   market
      v
    |||||||||||||||||||||
  18                       118
value                   premium

they see bitcoin at $24k is in a GOOD value area. not AT value, but within range of good value. but no where near average or risky premium.

so people are super happy to buy your coin at $24k because its not at todays premium.

note:
i am sceptical of using daily changes/measures of value. because miners accounting is not done daily. they measure their costs over a 6-24 month scale(industrial mining farms). so personally im sticking with a $15k base for now and saying its too soon to concrete state value will remain at/above $18k. but knowing the value window is moving forward on the daily where value is rising in the short term is a good sign.. but $15k is a concrete number that has been tested many times last year

---

the only suggestion i could make to the OP is to use a fairer 2 year ROI. and using a proper base electric cost per KWH

.. he could also use different countries electric rates. and then display multiple lines cost per region. but thats then getting more regionally speculative

you might want to check on that..
all products have an underlying value amount below the retail market rate

no one wants to sell at a loss if actual cost. which is where bitcoin has a non-zero bottom
its not just speculation of emotional values(sentiments) there is a bottom value that supports and underlays the speculation

if the most economically efficient dairy farmer can only produce 1 pint of milk for $0.30. you will not ever see a retail store bought milk for $0.25 a pint
retail milk would be more like $0.45-$1

individuals values(emotions desires) differ

as for people personal numeric value:premium
thats speculative and variable
but if you plot them on a chart.. you would then see a gap at the bottom.
draw a line along the bottom and thats the networks VALUE

because value is at the bottom. premium is at the top

bitcoin does have intrinsic values and value. based on its own desires/features and cost

the value bottom is the line where no one wants to sell below.. and no one can acquire(via any method) for less..
this is the non-zero support aka VALUE

price is not value

value sits below the market

that why when you see the price go down people say the price becomes better value(cheap)

learn the concept of value or premium(cheap or expensive)

lets say we knew bitcoins price would be between 17k and say 100k this year
no imagine the price today was

$20k
$26k
$50k
$75k
$100k

are you saying that $100k is "value"
no
thats premium. thats the ATH. thats the top
value sits at the bottom of the market

and if you can find the bottom of the bottom where no one wants to sell for less and no one can buy for less. thats the ultimate bottomline value

so if no one on the market can buy(acquire) for less than $20k in 2023.
yet some people on the planet can mine(acquire) coin for $16k in 2023

the ultimate bottomline value is $16k

yes value is not seen on the retail spot market. its below the spot market.
but it exists because its the bottomline no one on the planet goes below in 2023

if you want to argue "market price" .. tell me this..
WHICH market
coinbase, binance, bitfiniex, OTC? DEFI?
all of those markets are speculative stuff ABOVE value.
markets are suppose to be above value. thats the whole point

in all types of market for anything the price is always
value+speculative profit=price
no one sells at a loss unless they are doing silly things

and the amount of people on the market not wanting to make a loss helps give the bottomline support value level a margin gap where the market sits above the value but never completely drops down to or below value

..
as for price discovery
people do not just pick a random number
people look at their costs of acquiring and set a prefered profit margin ontop. and then refuse to sell for less
yes each persons personal amounts differ.. this is the market speculation

but again if you can find the bottom. the lowest someone can acquire for on the whole planet currently .. you have found the bottomline value of the whole network/world

everything above that is speculative and volatile.
EH japans market price is higher than coinbase
OTC can be less than spot market
but the most cheapest way to acquire bitcoin in 2023 is efficient economic mining.
so mining by the most efficient miner is the underlying acquiring cost

the amount of coins a cheap miner can acquire for does not personally crash markets with their coin. but no one can mine for less then the lowest cost acquisition. so no one sells below that. again the retail spot market sits above value

please put all the individual perceptions of individuals costs on a scatter chart of all methods of acquiring bitcoin in 2023.
then notice there is a VOID below a certain amount.
take that lowest number of all possible methods to acquire bitcoin. and you will see the bottomline value.. which is non zero

or view the number in another fashion
|    |******************|
or view the number in another fashion
   value                        premium
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0                                   118


hawaiian, japanese miners are in the red area for mining
iceland/slavic/asian region miners are in the green area for mining
america/europe residential miners are in the orange
america/europe industrial miners are in the green/orange
spot/otc/futures/defi markets are in the green

NO ONE is in the grey/blank void area

Thanks for the feedback.

I've updated electricity cost to $0.04/kW h and RIO to 730 days. It made value $20K less, but still above the price.

Daily fluctuation happens because for the difficulty change, formula uses last 6 months, which is not fixed amount of periods to take into account (It may be 12,13,14).
I may need to adjust formula to take fixed amount of periods to prevent those fluctuations.

Value&Premium in your terms is something different from Graham/Warren's Value Investing.

Also my idea not to calculate some figure to tell miners it's attractive or not to invest in mining, but to tell what's the current difference in production costs to current market price (as for commodity), which may be used a signal to buy/sell.

AntMiner S19   3230   95000000000000   3/1/2020

Isn't this most efficient miner on the market?

Thanks, added AntMiner S19 XP since 12/01/2022, now Fair Value is $4K less.

You're right, updated to Pro+ Hyd.

UPD: Fair value got pretty close to market price.