My friend and I were discussing Bitcoin transaction fees yesterday, and he believes that transaction fees are related to the difficulty rate, and since the difficulty rate is adjusted roughly every two weeks, transaction fees will go down after the adjustment. I wasn't so sure
Nobody can be sure about that.
Difficulty, difficulty adjustment, network hashrate, transaction demand (waiting transactions in mempools) interact with each other and impact on transaction fee.
If difficulty adjusts to lower than now, blocks can be found with faster average block time that can be helpful to clear mempools at faster rate. However it is only true if the rate of new waiting transactions in mempool remains the same like now. In reality we are unsure what will happen with that rate in next 2 weeks and later.
Another factor is hypes around Ordinals, BRC20 that can contribute to add transactions with very high fee rates at tip of mempools. It will cause domino effects and late comers will have to increase their fee rates if they don't want to wait a few weeks. You can not control how people react with their transaction need and mempools, fee rates.
Sum up, it is a very complicated scenario but I believe that sooner or later, the hype will no longer hot than now. From DeFi, NFTs, GameFi, Metaverse on Ethereum ERC20 chain, I believe it won't be different on Bitcoin blockchain.
