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    Author Topic: 51% attack on Bitcoin  (Read 348 times)
    philipma1957
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    May 28, 2023, 03:50:02 AM
    Merited by darkv0rt3x (1)
     #21

    I was wondering what it would cost to control 51% of the mining hash rate? Is this ever a realistic threat?
    It's not a realistic threat because Bitcoin network is very big in hash rate and attackers have to spent huge and expensive cost to own 51% of total hashrate or more to do attack.

    Because Bitcoin network is decentralized from nodes to hashrate, if something looks suspicious, miners will change their mining pools. Communities like exchanges have bots to detect attacks and will halt their withdrawal and deposit so attackers will waste their money for attacks.

    How many Bitcoin confirmations is enough?
    https://jlopp.github.io/bitcoin-confirmation-risk-calculator/
    https://web.archive.org/web/20181231045818/https://people.xiph.org/~greg/attack_success.html

    https://howmanyconfs.com/

    PoW 51% attack cost
    https://www.crypto51.app/

    To be honest, I don't understand these values:
    Name    Symbol    Market Cap    Algorithm    Hash Rate    1h Attack Cost    NiceHash-able
    Bitcoin    BTC    $517.53 B    SHA-256           378,673 PH/s    $1,646,739             0%

    Means that to attack Bitcoin network for 1h, it would cost 1 million, 6 hundred, forty six, 7 hundred and thirty nine dollars?


    I would think this way:
    Total hash power 378673PH/s

    51% of Total hash power is ~190PH/s

    Each S19xp Hybrid runs at ~257TH/s
    Therefore we need  190000TH/s / 257TH/s = 740 miners
    Each miner costs $8500, so, we need 8500*740 = $6290000 ~6.3 million dollars
    Each miner uses 5350W/h, so, we need 5350 * 740 = 396kW/h * 24h = 9504kW day
    If eectricity costs, let's say 6cents h, we need $1368576 day.

    I'm not absolutely sure about my numbers but they seem ok to me. Anyone correct me if I'm wrong!
    Now, the only question I don't know for sure how to answer is how much time would it take for this setup to take over the main chain of the other 49% of hashpower!

    your math is wrong

    I just made a few fixes... If it's still too off, please tell me where!

    190,000 to 195,000 ph in gear

    190,000,000 to 195,000,000 th in gear

    I used a 100 th s19j pro

    so 1,900,000 to 1,950,000 machines at 1000 each

    or used your gear.

    190,000,000 th257 = 739299 units at 8500 = 6,284,046,692 which about a factor of 1000x

    I think I know where I went wrong.
    When I evaluated 51% of total ash power, I dropped by a factor of 1000. It should be 195000PH/s and I wrote 195PH/s.
    So, it should be 195000000TH/s / 257TH/s = 760000 miners!
    760000 miners * 8500 = $6.5billion
    Then, 5350W/h * 760000 miners = 4.1GW/h
    At 6 cent/Kwh, this would mean $246million per hour.
    Per day would be $6billion, which matches your numbers. Well, apparently you're an experienced miner, so, I just wanted to do this as an exercise for mylsef.
    Thanks for pointing out my mistakes!

    An even thoug, my approach wouldn't work. After reading some other posts here, I think someone said it woul be needed to buy at least twice as much miners as needed to add twice the current total hash power. So, I tink I would need to double my number to match this, which makes sense.

    But I had a question that I think it wasn't answered. In this scenario (introducing twice as much as current total hash power plus some more to overcome the current hash power), how much time would one need to run the attack to make it effective?

    And, of course that your approach would make more sense. The one that you described as forcing the tow major pools to fork the main chain!


    To be honest, I don't understand these values:
    Name    Symbol    Market Cap    Algorithm    Hash Rate    1h Attack Cost    NiceHash-able
    Bitcoin    BTC    $517.53 B    SHA-256           378,673 PH/s    $1,646,739             0%

    Means that to attack Bitcoin network for 1h, it would cost 1 million, 6 hundred, forty six, 7 hundred and thirty nine dollars?


    I would think this way:
    Total hash power 378673PH/s

    51% of Total hash power is ~195PH/s

    Each S19xp Hybrid runs at ~257TH/s
    Therefore we need  190000TH/s / 257TH/s = 760 miners
    Each miner costs $8500, so, we need 8500*760 = $6460000 ~6.5 million dollars
    Each miner uses 5350W/h, so, we need 5350 * 760 = 4066kW/h * 24h = 97584kW day
    If electricity costs, let's say 6cents h, we need $5900000 day.

    I'm not absolutely sure about my numbers but they seem ok to me. Anyone correct me if I'm wrong!
    Now, the only question I don't know for sure how to answer is how much time would it take for this setup to take over the main chain of the other 49% of hashpower!

    You're calculating the cost of building a farm to attack the network, and you do that also wrong as Phil said
    What that calculator does is simply taking the rent cost for 1th/a and multiplying by the needed hashrate, so no initial gear cost, no energy not anything else. Much like buying a car to go on a trip versus taking rental.

    After all it's pretty simple, to get that narrate you just have to rent it buy paying the miners more than they are making but you will never be able to bribe mining pools with tens of exahashes to rent you that for one hour or two.

    Yes, I found my error and fixed it.
    I don't know if there would be enough renting sites (actual hardware) enough to run such attack! I think Phil's approach of hijacking the 2 major pools would make more sense!

    I think doing 51% or more for one month in a row would fuck the network up.

    but it would really be hard as it would be with new gear.  built by bitmain sponsored by china.

    they would need to use all the power from the biggest hydropower dam and 410 eh.

    so maybe 22,000 mega watt dam which they have. plus a few more which they have.

    the worlds biggest mine with 2 million s19 pros
    so much wire pdus etc. fans ya da ya da ya da.

    say one month in a row. btc would suffer greatly if that happens.

    the gear maybe 4-5 billion the power .

    so china could do it maybe 🤔 as they must let noone know they are gathering all that gear..

    You would be spending 10 billion to wreck 500 billion which is acceptable in a war but maybe not for a btc attack.

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