Part of the point should be that you do not necessarily need to be completely right, and if you are whimpy about bitcoin (whether you are rich or not) then take a more whimpy position, such as 1%, but if you are more bullish, then take a larger position, such as 25%.

It is pretty short sighted for people to continue to fail/refuse  to get at least 1%, but there are a lot of people who are not really in the habit of investing, and if they do invest, they tend to invest into things that are very easy and do not require as much work.. so they invest into their residential property (even though it might take them 5-10 years to be able to save up for a down payment. .. and they also invest in something like a 401k plan if their work has it, and some folks do not even take advantage of their employer's 401k plan.. and so if they invest beyond those two kinds of items it is very rare.. because maybe they might consider their car to be an investment (even though cars tend to be depreciating assets), but it goes to show that people might not own very many things... and even if they add up their assets and off-set their assets by their liabilities, they still might ONLY end up with very small numbers when it comes to their networth.. and many times they do not even have a fraction of their annual salary saved up... such as even 20% to 50% of it (which would be a good start to consider how much they should have saved up, and even if they agree with you that it sounds like a good idea to save, a very overwhelmingly large number of people generally do not tend to do it).

When buying Bitcoin we always wait for a price that is slightly below the current price. That is, if the price of Bitcoin is $10K  at the moment, then we will think that the price of Bitcoin may go down further, that is, thinking like this, many people could not buy Bitcoin until now.  It wasn't long before Bitcoin hit $16K. Those who couldn't invest at that time hopefully won't be able to invest in Bitcoin today.  

Opportunities don't always come and you don't always have to wait for opportunities, you have to create them yourself. Those who risked investing in Bitcoin after the price of Bitcoin reached $16K are successful today, but those who were waiting for the market to fall further are still waiting for an opportunity. So those who want to invest, make a little courage in your mind and definitely invest with risk. I hope you will not be cheated by investing.

“Bitcoin could jump up to $100K with the next halving.” We can all die tomorrow, doesn't mean we die. A thousand theories will be lost by one concrete action. We can only reverse the wall clock but we can not reverse time, so it's never too late. But we still have to take wise action, don't because we don't want to be late, we instead use borrowed money.

Sometimes most people like to delay when they're tight and then panic to buy it, if it's tight then act. It shouldn't be like that, because any investment, let alone bitcoin investment, is very important for us not to procrastinate. if indeed you can set aside money to invest it will be better, so that your financial condition will be safe in the future.

Another thing is that you do not have to invest at the bottom in order to be profitable, so people who had been investing into bitcoin for the past 3 years are surely in profits, even if they bought some bitcoin at higher prices.  A straight DCA approach of buying $100 worth of BTC every week over the last 3 years would have resulted in $15,700 invested and 0.621 BTC accumulated.  Looks profitable to me, and whether you could have been it by buying on dips is not easy to know, because sometimes those who DCA invest into bitcoin might be able to be more aggressive than those who try to strategize their buys.. but sure.. no problem, there might have been some folks who might have had been able to invest $15,700 over the past 3 years and got more than 0.621 BTC.. perhaps? perhaps?


I agree with everything that you say, especially in regards to getting started early and perhaps attempting to be somewhat aggressive in terms of making sure that you get a stake in bitcoin.

However I doubt that it is a good idea (or even necessary) to front-load your investment into BTC with a loan, even though it could pay off to use debt and to front load your investment, I question the extent to which it is necessary to engage in leverage... especially since bitcoin is likely one of the best asymmetric bets that exist (if not the best), and why screw up a good deal by adding leverage to it, which might cause you to fuck up a good thing.

In other words, everyone should attempt to be as aggressive as they can in terms of their approach to bitcoin and in terms of getting a stake in bitcoin and figuring out how much of a stake that they want to get into bitcoin and attempt to be as aggressive as they are able to be without over doing it, and in that regard, each person has to attempt to account for all of his/her financial and psychological specifics if s/he is wanting to attempt to be as aggressive that s/he is able to be without overdoing it.


Loans have all kinds of conditions, and you have to figure out if you believe that any loan that you are eligible for would be worth it to take out.

So for example, if your loan has to be paid back in a year.. that is one thing.  If your loan needs to have payments and it has to be paid back at the end of the year, that's another thing.  What is the interest rate?  Is it 5%?  10%  15% or some higher amount?  Are you dependent upon the proceeds of bitcoin to pay back the loan, or do you have other ways that you can pay back the loan in the event that bitcoin does not get to a place in which you would like to sell it.  How much income are you able to earn over the next year?  is that income enough to pay the loan plus the interest rate (plus any service fees that might attach to the loan)?

You should pretty easily be able to calculate these kinds of factors to figure out if you are willing to take the risks on using leverage rather than just buying bitcoin through your normal channels.. and also including that if you don't take out a loan, then you still can get price exposure, that price exposure will not be front loaded though. 

If you are not really calculating these kinds of matters to make sure that you understand each of them, then you are using such loan to gamble rather than invest, and you could turn a good investment into a bad outcome.. so in bitcoin you usually would ONLY be able to lose up to 100%, but with a loan, you increase how much you can lose and how fast you can lose it... and of course, there is upside potential too... but don't let greed fog your vision in terms of calculating whether or not taking a loan is a good idea based on your own specifics, and your speculation of the likely direction of the BTC price is ONLY one of the factors that you should be considering.

Well if someone is just learning about bitcoin, and they cannot control whether it is a bull season or not.   
 

They may well need to get a stake right away.. and then maybe figure out details later.

Right now we might be in a bull season, even if we have a bit of a plateau for the past nearly 5 months.

But yeah, they might be in a worse situation if they come to bitcoin at $80k, and then they have to consider whether the BTC price is going to dip or not. .and if so when?  There is no guarantee that BTC prices will dip back past $80k once they go above that.. so people coming to bitcoin at that time ($80k and other various points) do have some potential dilemmas regarding whether to wait or to get started right away.. and if they get started right away, then by how much?

It seems that in bitcoin, we are frequently advantaged by being in bitcoin for a long time, but sometimes the first several years can be painful, even though the best choice, even in a bull market might be to get started sooner rather than later... and it is just a matter of how much to start with and how much, if any, to hold in reserves.

That's a good advice. I actually loved it. With this, it will lessen the number of people that will FOMO and then those who will cry before or after the halving that the price of Bitcoin cannot be bought anymore due to the expensive price. It always happen, and yet they don't really learn. What I don't understand is why they still doubt until now when we all know there is only one way Bitcoin will go. Up.
It's just the question of "When?" But for those patiently waiting this is not an issue anymore. They just keep on accumulating more and more Bitcoin and then wait for the harvest.

I think every investor need this mindset as that is the only way not to miss out on the ride. No one can truly know how market will play out; best is to buy at a discount and hold to find out the outcome.

Anyone who gets in when BTC get to $80k may not actually be making the best decision. BTC ATH is about $69k and from history, next bull run will surpass this with target at $100k. As usual, we will see some corrections when we hit this new ATH. Since BTC has the ability to correct even beyond 20%, it might go below $80k again when that happens and anyone waiting to enter at that price will be at a temporary loss and might panic and sell.

I think the best is to buy anywhere below the current ATH of $69k...even now.

Yeah, but you are fighting with the hypothetical, because in this hypothetical the BTC price is already $80k and a newbie is coming to BTC and he is having to decide what to do at that time.  He cannot go back in history.

Another thing, is your presumption that BTC will dip merely because it gets to $80k.  That has not always been the case in BTC history, but still we cannot necessarily merely use BTC price history in order to make our decision about what to do.  We have to decide right at that time what to do, and we are new to bitcoin, we do not have any and we have to decide.

If you decide to wait for the dip, then you still don't have any BTC if the price does not end up dipping as you are suggesting that you expect it to do so.

That is where a lot of people go wrong, with bitcoin having a lot of potential, everyone wants to invest in bitcoin even with borrowed funds, which is not advisable. I like the plan you mapped out already by investing with funds you are not using and having other sources of income so you don't temper with your investment.
Many people, even after investing, continue to sell out of it because they do not have another source of income. And people have been afraid of not receiving their capital back, forgetting that the market will recover. People must understand how bitcoin works. And anyone can hold until they obtain both your capital back plus extra profit, which is when your aim is met.



The time to take advantage of the market is now having an accumulation plan can help amass some assets; not everyone is wealthy enough to buy a single bitcoin; establish plans to accumulate either monthly or at whatever time is convenient for the interested person. Halving will seriously affect the price of bitcoin. And will benefit a lot of investors.And will benefit a large number of investors. Sometimes all it takes is a little patience and knowing how to capitalize on whatever the market is doing at the time. Many people will miss out on opportunities, largely due to procrastination, but some may miss out owing to financial constraints.

Sure it is personal.. but you are still avoiding grappling with the specifics of the hypothetical.

In this particular hypothetical, the BTC price has reached $80k, and the hypothetical person has absolutely no BTC.  He has to decide whether to get some or not.

And, it is not even like $80k is the ONLY price point in which something like this could have had been applied.  Let me give some examples from the charts, and you can go look at those examples yourself to see what the consequences would have had been in terms of choosing to wait.. which you don't really know, but it's your choice about what to do, and is it personal or is there something else going on?:

1) In early 2013, we could have seen that the BTC price had gotten to $50, so it has surpassed the previous ATH of $32, and so in that situation, at $50, such hypothetical no coiner is having to decide whether to get into BTC at that time or wait for a further dip.

2) In early 2013, we could have seen that the BTC price had gotten to $50, so it has surpassed the previous ATH of $32, and so in that situation, at $50, such hypothetical no coiner is having to decide whether to get into BTC at that time or wait for a further dip.

3) In late 2013, we could have seen that the BTC price had gotten to $300, so it has surpassed the previous ATH of $263, and so in that situation, at $300, such hypothetical no coiner is having to decide whether to get into BTC at that time or wait for a further dip.

4) In late 2016  early 2017, we could have seen that the BTC price had gotten to $1,900, so it has surpassed the previous ATH of $1,163, and so in that situation, at $1,900, such hypothetical no coiner is having to decide whether to get into BTC at that time or wait for a further dip.

5) In early 2021, we could have seen that the BTC price had gotten to $24,000, so it has surpassed the previous ATH of $19,666, and so in that situation, at $24,000, such hypothetical no coiner is having to decide whether to get into BTC at that time or wait for a further dip.

So, we do not know exactly what the future situation is going to be in terms of timeline and how BTC prices may or may not get to $80k, but perhaps you get the idea for the situation that is likely going to come and the decision that needs to be made.  By the way, I will give you a hint, the decision and/or the resulting action is not necessarily an all or nothing decision in order for a no coiner to get the fuck off zero.  Here's the scenario.

6) At some uncertain time in the future, we may well be able to see that the BTC price had gotten to $80k, so the BTC price has surpassed the previous ATH of $69k, and so in that situation, at $80k, our hypothetical no coiner (who just found out about bitcoin or figured out bitcoin is a good investment) is having to decide whether to get into BTC at that time or wait for a further dip.

Is it merely a personal decision that you are not able to answer in general whimpy and vague ways?


Sure these factors exist and should be accounted for in terms of the decided action, but there is also the question of what is bitcoin as compared with other investment options... and should such hypothetical person get the fuck off zero or not.  If so, what are the various approaches that could be taken (and sure the various approaches are going to have individual/personal components. 

So it seems to me that if you really want to try to get anywhere in terms of grappling with the actual situation that is presented (the hypothetical) you have to weigh the various factors and get into details of grappling with the hypothetical rather than just proclaiming that "it's personal"