because if there is a oil blockade banning the sells of all oil(yet supply continues to pile up). then even the futures market will see this and be on a downside not an upside. (those with active contract will be trying to sell them at a loss becasue the contracts wont fulfil so they will want any dumb chump to buy their empty bag of contracts off them)
and when the blockade finally gets removed for actual oil. there will be alot of people ready to sell and everyone clamouring over each other to sell before the next person, thus causing a dump
same goes for real estate. those holding mortgage derivatives know that they are holding a losing contract. and so while tenants are foreclosed on because they stopped paying mortgages, the investors will want their money out but unable to sell the house so they just foreclose on tenants and hoard unsellable real estate, leaving homes in disrepair.
then when real estate market opens again everyone will be clamouring to auction off dilapidated/unkept houses for $1 just to get rid of their contract but knowing the tenant still owes them full amount of debt tenant didnt pay.. because well thats what happened in 2008 in one way or another
when there is a large stockpile of assets that cant sell.. the prices dont go up.. they go down
It seems to me that you have little experience in the market. Let's take the year 2020, when oil prices fell by ~90% (WTI ~$2, Brent ~$5). If your claim is correct that the price is determined by the balance of supply and demand, does it mean that humanity reduced its oil consumption by 90% in 2020? Roughly speaking, by 10 times? Of course not, the actual reduction in consumption may have been around 10-20%, but not 90%, indicating that the price of oil was determined by the derivatives market. Similarly, your second example about the 2008 crisis is also entirely flawed. Do you believe that in 2008, people started buying 3 times less real estate or constructing 3 times fewer properties? Even in the case of real estate, the price bubble was inflated in the derivatives market, not in the real market.
The ~90% drop in oil prices in 2020 and the decline in real estate prices in 2008 were caused not by changes in the supply and demand ratio but by speculations in the derivatives market with large leveraged positions involving notional value to trillions of U.S. dollars.
i never even made the assertions you replied with .. read my quote i never even used the words buzzword of silly highscool economics of "supply & demand" however you did multiple times in this topic
it seems your taking high school failed economics and trying to postulate from that standpoint without understanding the multiple levels of economics and how each level impacts the next.
its funny how you then say its about buying X less .. yet your whole topic is about a dumb scenario of ther being no buys at all.. thus making your rebuttals moot.
so i dig into your moot rebuttals and show you why they are moot becasue in a zero transactional market with no trade at all, there is no market
and with no spot market, that then affects the secondary markets of derivatives and darkpools which also crash to zero
and by the way, in 2008 alot of houses were foreclosed on and auctioned off cheaply in auctions as oppose to normal real estate listings thus causing a price drop in housing due to alot more housing being flash sold quickly when the derivatives banks wanted to exit their secondary market on mortgages..
it didnt matter about supply or demand. it was jsut price manipulation by forcing the comps down, it did not require all or high percentage of houses to be sold to crash it. it just required select few being auctioned dirt cheap
you will learn this about bitcoin
bitcoin exchanges do not trade all current 19m coins each day to set prices.. there is a subset in exchanges of under 500k coins of which 90% are not even on market orders being processed. so call it only 50k coins traded at any given time frame. most of which are the same coins wash/arbitraged.
so forget your highschool "supply/demand" and realise there is more going on then that
the bitcoin value(number below market) is set by most efficient mining costs. this sets a bottom barrier of the lowest low for a period which people then speculate above that not due to supply but willingness/ability to buy.
there are currently americans willing to pay upto $40k if bitcoin price speculated that. there are japanese/hawaiian willing to pay upto $140k if bitcoin speculated that high. but each country has different value/premium limits before they give up
with this if there was no market for miners to sell coin to cover electric to continue mining. miners would give up mining. leaving the hashrate to crash, which would then make the cost to mine real cheap for anyone that decides to keep going due to lack of competition. this then lowers the bottom support meaning when markets open again those that did accumulate will want to exit quick and sell quick pushing the price down.
a forced ban of a market where no one sells does not cause a jump in market price. it in most scenarios causes the opposite becasue once the markets open again, majority are begging to sell at any price even at a loss, just to get out
it becomes a game of dominos, when a market opens and someone sells at a loss to exit, others see the price crash and they too panic and sell too.. and with miners having less competition thus a lower cost for those remaining. they too can sell cheap
learn beyond highschool economics
