Did you mean 3.5% or 3.5x? Bitcoin is more volatile than to expect 3.5%. Even before halving, bitcoin will have more than 3.5% uptrends and downtrends.

In the next halving, before 2026, I am expecting bitcoin to have increased above $100000 which is the least price I could think of.

It is common sense to say that halvings will likely have less and less effect with coming halving due the less supply distribution being halved, but let's not forget that halvings are still bombastic news.

Also, don't underestimate the compounding effect of the fact that there will be less selling pressure.

that's not how I am thinking, maybe I can accept your opinion if the number of bitcoin adoption per day is not increased.  the price is influenced by supply and demand, the halving event influence the supply but the demand influenced by many things such as sentiments, people necessities and etc.

No supply is halving. It is only block reward will be halved after 210,000 blocks that last about 4 years. Total supply is always 21 million bitcoins but less and less new bitcoins will appear from block rewards each 210,000 blocks.

How is the 21 million Bitcoin cap defined and enforced?

Controlled supply and Equivalent Network Time can provide more details and other views for you.

Supply and demand! Just the fact alone that it is going to be twice as hard to mine for half the coins is enough to give it a nice bump as it has done historically. Let's just sit back and enjoy the show, eh?

The historical patterns already indicate a pump in prices after the halving and the scarcity of bitcoin gets higher as the blocks becomes much harder to mine. Also, how can you be so sure that in 120 years there's going to only be 50% increase? I would probably believe you if bitcoin is infinite supply and at the same time there's no lost coins which there's a lot already which contributes to the ever increasing scarcity of bitcoin and we all know the basics of law of supply and demand. And there's also the people that's believing that bitcoin will pump during the halving which will definitely gather media attention and we know the power of media right?

Well, i have said it times without number that the coming bitcoin price pump wont be solely as a result of the coming halving, if halving was to be the catalyst that will drive the coming bull run, then i also don't think or believe that bitcoin will increase much in terms of price, there are several other developments coming that has the potentials to drive the price of bitcoin to Pluto or Mars, or to the moon as we all are already familiar with, one of those developments is the Bitcoin ETF, i personally believe that if the bitcoin ETF is approved by the SEC, this alone has the potentials to drive the price of bitcoin to above $120,000 from the current price, with a very little help from the coming halving.

So yeah, investors should not really depend or focus their attention on halving cus, halving alone might not drive the price of bitcoin as high as people are expecting.

Yup this is how the majority of us see it, simple supply and demand. Also lets not
lose sight of the fact that it is a cut in block reward so this will affect the miners.
Their costs will remain more or less the same and in the meantime they will have
to work harder to earn the same reward as the did prior to the halving, which essentially
means up to double the cost for them and the customer/buyer always pays the costs!

92.7% actually. and while your calculation is correct, you are applying it wrongly to the price movement which results from the halving.
Mining is a bigger business than it was a decade ago and huge investments are being put into rigs and pools so a halving which affects the profit of that business, affects the price majorly.

It will definitely be more than that.

- Jay -