Opening Post 2:  Creating monthly withdrawal limits - based on the then BTC Spot price's direction and distance from the 200-week moving average, and of course a withdrawal rate and quantity of coins in the account

Ideas of sustainable withdrawal that attempts to measure monthly budget limits based BTC spot price relative to the 200-week moving average

There has been a while that I have been talking about a chart/table that I had been working on that attempts to guide monthly budgets within the parameters of the 200-week moving average.  Here's an example with two hypothetical accounts.. Account 1 and Account 2.^**



**An amended and improved version of the above chart eliminates the second Account, and shows the ongoing BTC Spot Price and the 200-week moving Average in order to show how they compare with one another.

From the above chart, you should be able to see that if there are two hypothetical accounts, and each of the accounts started out with 21 BTC in September 2022, and they have been experiencing withdrawals on a monthly basis.  The amount withdrawn each month should be less than the limits of their monthly withdrawal limits based on the various formulas therein that also peg to the 200-week moving average and also the limits are based on then balance in the account.

We can see that the actual 200-week moving average gets put into the spreadsheet in order to show the limits for the upcoming month.  In this case, I have projected the 200-week moving average to be $29,041 (K,3) within the first day or so of December 2023.  You can see the actual here.

 The spreadsheet autofills the various threshold BTC spot prices in row 3 in accordance with what percentage the BTC spot price is above or below the then 200-week moving average, as reflected in row 2.  

For example, to show the lowest Spot price on the chart (H,3 = $18,850), as long as the BTC price is above $18,850 but less than $20,300 (I, 3) (that is more than 30% below the 200-week moving average, but less than 35% below the 200-week moving average), then there is an authorization to ONLY spend 40% (H, 1 = 0.4) of the 200-week moving average monthly rate which based on the 4% per year, 1% per quarter or 0.33% per month which is also autofill calculated into the sheet (based on the 4% amount in L,3). So the monthly budget limit for that person would be 0.02744205 BTC (H, 20) (or $517.28 in H, 13).

In my model, the BTC spot price has to be 25% (M, 2) higher than the 200-week moving average (which is estimated to be more than $36,250 (M,3) at the beginning of December) before account 1 would be authorized to withdraw the full (M,1) 0.33% per month allocation (as the percentage that is authorized is depicted in row 1), so that would be authorized to spend up to 0.06860513 BTC (M,18 and M,20) for the month and right at around $2,486.94 (M,11 and M,13).

Another clarification that I should make is if the BTC price were to exceed the highest BTC spot price on the furthest left of Row 3 which would be $435, or higher (U,3), at the beginning of December, which is 1,400% higher ((U,2) than then 200-week moving average of $29,041 (K,3), then amount of authorization of BTC to withdraw is still the same (0.06860513 BTC for the month); however there is an authorization to withdraw and to cash out of BTC up to 60 months of the monthly limits in advance..which shows as 4.11630772 BTC (U,20)  (U,13 = $1,790,593.86).  

Of course once the BTC price gets 0.33% or higher above the 200, week moving average, then gradually the number of months that can be withdrawn in advance increases at various thresholds as reflected in the increases in the percentages above the 200-week moving average in row 3 starting from column N and going through column U.  And the number of months authorized to withdraw in advance are reflected in Row 1 and show greater than 1 month in advance starting from Column N at 2 months and Column U at 60 months.

My tentative thoughts is that it would be a preferred practice to cash out several months of the monthly authorization in advance under such conditions of BTC prices many multiples and/or multitudes above the 200-week moving average in order to expect that some of the higher multitudes of being that high above the 200-week moving average are not really sustainable... and we have seen that non-sustainability high spot BTC prices historically, even though we cannot really know in advance how far UP, how fast the BTC spot price might go up and/or how long it will last at various higher price thresholds.  

I speculate that as the BTC price is going up and if it reaches higher multiples above the 200-week moving average, we might still get anxious about selling additional BTC (beyond the monthly sales authorization), and so we might still end up selling a number of months of our BTC authorization in advance at lower BTC price  thresholds.  It seems to me that even if the BTC price were to go 200% above the 200 week moving average as reflected in Column Q, we might end up selling 12 months of our monthly authorization in advance, so it might seem that we could be precluded from selling any BTC for the next 11 months; however, if a few months later, the BTC price were to reach the thresholds in Column S, then it may be quite reasonable to sell an additional 24 months to reach the authorization of being able to sell 36 months in advance (S,1), so we can make those kinds of calculations in order to stay within our limits but not necessarily being overly penalized for selling early even though we would have been able to sell more for higher but we are still able to do it within some reasonable limitations that are still quite generous in terms of the amounts that we are able to sell in advance, and the same is true for getting into the higher BTC spot prices of Column T or Column U.  

If the BTC price reaches higher thresholds, there would be new authorization to sell additional months in advance based on the higher BTC spot price movement, and at the same time, we can continue to plug into our formula based on how much we had already sold and based on the 200-week moving average continuing to move up while the BTC spot price is moving up and the higher the BTC spot price is out of line with the 200-week moving average (and for longer that the BTC spot price stays high) then it will cause the 200-week moving average to get drug up faster and faster than it had been previously (and can be measured daily or whatever is ball-parkedly reasonable numbers to use in K,3).. .It can be measured here, too.

I understand that there is quite a bit of data in the charts and some of the ideas regarding the monthly spending limitations of the accounts are somewhat discretionary, but starting out by sticking with standard 4% per year withdrawal rates and even presume a kind of perpetual ability to withdraw BTC under this kind of system with a kind of underlying assumption that BTC prices (especially the 200-week moving average) will continue to go up at least 4% per year on average, so even if there are some down, years the account is not materially getting depleted in terms of its dollar values (or whatever other utility we might be measuring our cost of living).  I also realize that account 1 and account 2 are not very materially different from each other in terms of the current balance of the accounts, so maybe i could have had come up with some differences in which one of the accounts might have hade been maxing out the monthly budget limit and the other one was spending minimal levels.. Maybe a future version I will change them around a bit?

Any thoughts or feedback would be appreciated, or even some real life examples of trying to figure out these kinds of balances.  I am focused on BTC in this example, but of course, there could be various other assets that comprise someone's investment portfolio and maybe even cashflow, so surely I am not against any kinds of Gresham Law types of considerations in which there would likely be spending from other assets prior to spending from BTC, so if the accounts are not spent to the max of their limits, then whatever BTC remains would just continue to sit in the accounts with probably a need to consider whether to maximize withdrawal or to sometimes even hold back on withdrawal or to maximize withdrawal which is also partially already guided by the parameters and assumptions contained in the chart/table.

Last Edited: December 17, 2023   - and now a website to help to figure out these calculations and also a new thread by Bitmover.

Opening Post 4:  Reserved - still to be determined

You have a great plan for your Bitcoin investment and thanks for sharing a sheet of your investment too.

I can contribute two websites for Dollar Cost Averaging that is certainly good for investment especially investment in Bitcoin.
https://dcabtc.com/
https://costavg.com/ . I introduced it in Dollar Cost Averaging with costavg.com include exchange fee.

DCA is usable for taking profit and it is guided in (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan.

Thank you for this thread, I'm ashamed that I never bothered to make this kind of calculation. I practice DCA too but I don't have the discipline to do 2 things. First, to make actual dates and calculations. Secondly, not to touch it.

So over the past years especially from 2019, I only know the growth in coins, because I add DCA to my personal wallet and see it grow.

BUT I take out sometimes to fund small habits + expenses, to try to return it to origiinal levels asap. I think therefore there is an idea of "sustainable withdrawal" like this to ensure you keep enjoying the benefits while still maintaining a portfolio.

The thing is the time to watch the 200-week trend line, I guess with automated indicator easier but I know I would fail at this "discipline".

Thank you for the meaningful reply, I find that there are very few careful calculations done, thereby most "strategies" and discussions don't have the data to back them up.

The key summary for me is proof of what I've always believed. That an accumulation strategy that lets you reap continuous benefits is still much more beneficial than pure stacking. I always see my holding as something that must not allow "normal" spending as detrimental even psychologiclly (especially when missing out the highs).


Yep, and for me, I need to even add my local currency price to my own data if I ever want to do so. Because USD wise, withdrawals already show a supplementary figure that encourages holding over long term, but because since 2018 when I started seriously DCA, dollar vs my currency is also breaking ATHs.

Just by holding BTC I not only avoided my local inflation but overcame it (a double benefit of BTC/USD value!

This thread is food for thought.
It's nice to have it here, but I will try not to interact with it too much.
It's nice to see someone thinking about cashing out in a sensible way, but for the moment, I am too focused on increasing my stash, not to deplete it.
I will read it in the distant future, I hope. I reckon this is a luxury I do hope to maintain.

In case you find it easy to share:



I did my best to replicate your sheet's genuinely horrible colour scheme.
I had some ideas to improve the sheet, but I abstained from modifying cells or "workflow" of the sheets.

Please let me know if I missed something.

Hi JayJuanGee. This topic is a good idea of your investment ideas. I have read it to the end. But I will read it again on different days.
Today is the fourth day that I have returned to this thread to read your thoughts on attracting and maintaining a portfolio and wanted to convey this as a workplan sheet which is very useful if bookmark.
Thank You.

That is nice.. especially when I click on it and I can see the formulas.  

I generally like the idea of having it much easier for anyone who logs into this thread to be able to just take the spreadsheet and the formulas contained therein, and to just plug in their own numbers.. but yeah.. there might need to be better clarity in regards to which are the cells that are input cells (to plug in your own data - or to update such as (k,3) with the 200-week moving average) and which cells are reference cells.

Regarding missing anything:  
1) I suppose it might be o.k. to round out the dollar values to not show decimals.  My version had shown two decimals.

2) I had used the florescent green in rows 19 and 40 in order to highlight one month's budget, and sure even I am a bit confused about how to present one month's budget with clarity because what I conceive to happen once the BTC spot price becomes 33% or higher above the 200-week moving average, then there develops authorization to spend more than one month at a time, and since those would be discretionary determinations, I ONLY put the monthly amounts of rows 19 and 40 into florescent green.

In regards to ideas to improve the sheet -
1) I think that it is better to start with what is there, first.. which you seem to have accomplished pretty well.. and I still am having so many problems with GoogleSpreadsheet formulas colors and other kinds of formatting... and for example, if I have a spreadsheet that I am working on in Excel, then if I copy and paste into Chrome, then all of the colors and formatting seem to show up  - but they do not show up in Safari... Neither copies the formulas... at least from my ways of attempting to do it so far.

2) One change that I have recently been pondering over is to add the dollar spot value for each month so then it would both show how much dollar value was transacted in each account for each month but then it would also end up showing what the account value is for that month too.. So it might not necessarily end up showing the spot price on that day of the month but maybe the average price that the withdrawals were made for the month

3) Surely we could talk about any ways to improve the chart.. especially if it helps to present the information better without necessarily taking away from any of the substance.. and surely there are some of the matters that are a bit discretionary (and perhaps even a bit random). .regarding how much to authorize to withdraw based on how far above or how far below the BTC spot price is from the 200-week moving average.

4) Regarding colors.  I am not exactly attached to the colors that I use, but sometimes, I purposefully use colors so that I can easily distinguish this spreadsheet from some other spreadsheet that I use.. so there might be some ways to change the colors to make them more pleasing.. but of course there are needs for readability, too.

I am probably going to send you a PM.


Based on BTC's historical returns, we could have easily gotten away with 15% and still would have had been fine. You can see from my entry-level fuck you status chart that this last year and a half have been the worst 6-month increases in the 200-week moving average of ONLY a little more than 10% for each of the 6-month increments.  So even in my newest version of the entry-level fuck you status, I tried to make the numbers slope downwardly, while attempting to account for the continuation of some aspects of the 4-year cycle merging together, and surely I might have ended up going to conservative with those estimates, but it seems better to error more on the conservative side.. but without overdoing that either.. some folks go so conservative that they completely eliminate that bitcoin is still in such a buddingly new asset class at seemingly very early stages of its adoption curve.


Yes.  I think that you are hitting upon the same kinds of Gresham's law type considerations that I was trying to describe, even though you also seem to be trying to play the market too.. .which surely there may or may not be necessities to overly complicate matters.

Because let's say that you have three or four main things.. and I am going to suggest some values for the ones that you consider to be the main things.  I am also going to add the consideration of other items that you might have  .. and even to suggest that you have already exceeded fuck-you status (let's say by 25%.. so fuck you status is $2 million and you have reached $2.5 million.. .. and of course you can adjust these numbers to what you consider to be your own entry-level fuck you status).. which may or may not end up being the case (of having to meet entry-level fuck you status) once someone starts withdrawing.. but I am going to conclude that most of your cashflow from work has dried up.. and you don't really want to pursue cashflow from work.

I have a little bit of a problem to extrapolate exactly, but I think that any of us who might stay in bitcoin for a while, then we may well end up getting to a position in which the growth of our bitcoin ends up exceeding the value of our other investments, so then questions likely develop about whether we let the bitcoin portion ride (let the winners ride) or do we reallocate the winners into the losers.. those are personal choices, and I don't have any problem putting some value into the various losers because it is good to have value in areas other than just bitcoin, especially during drawdown periods... and there can be other purposes too in regards to having options of places to spend from.  So if I presume by the time that you get to your bitcoin withdrawal stage, then you have more value in bitcoin than you do any other asset, and maybe even all of the others combined.

Here's a potentially realistic scenario that is either at or near entry-level fuck you status (of course, the numbers can be changed in accordance with what you consider to be your entry-level fuck you status)

1) some index funds  - $550k

2) pension - $550k - this pays out at a fixed rate and generally you have few options regarding the amount of pay (except maybe when you first start to withdraw they might give you the option between monthly payments and lump sum, but I am not even sure if they are able to do that) - unless you were also referring to a 401k

3)  401k -   you said zero... some people have these and some don't ..  these have options to rebalance within the fund and options regarding withdrawal rates.

4) property - .. not very liquid and not easy to count unless you just have some possible equity... or if you might be renting out part of it.

5) commodities - $25k

6) bonds - $50k

7) cash and cash equivalents - $25k

8 ) various personal property, cars, other vehicles, tools, equipment, computers/phones, electronics, furniture, appliances, collectors items, jewelry, clothes - not very liquid .. even though you could cash out of some of it.. for supplemental cash .. maybe even a few months of living

9) Bitcoin -  $1.3 million

Total:  $2.5 Million.

Just from the $2.5 million, then we can presume a passive withdrawal rate from all of these at 4% per year which would be $100k per year or  $25k per quarter or $8,333 per month.

I am not sure what advantage you are going to get from trying to fuck around with any of them in terms of trying to play the waves of the market, except if you have a set withdrawal rate for each one of them, and then based on what is happening at the time, then you might choose to spend mostly from one rather than spending from the other or not to withdraw from one (or to withdraw more or less from one or another),  and then hopefully whatever you do choose to withdraw ends up covering your expenses during the months that you are in that state of preference (prioritizing).

Like I mentioned, my chart only is about the bitcoin portion of your withdrawing, and my chart already attempts to make adjustments in regards to where the BTC spot price is in reference to the 200-week moving average in order to show you your limitations for each of the months.  I think you would be potentially getting distracted if you are attempting to deviate too much from the motives of the chart and try to figure out other macro-factors that may or may not end up affecting BTC prices... even though if the BTC price gets several multiples higher than the 200-week moving average, then you would likely need to consider cashing out months in advance like is suggested to be authorized in the chart, rather than just merely cashing out one month at a time, and so if you miss out cashing extra during those peaks and you only cash out one month at a time, then you might end up short-falling yourself in the future regarding some extra cash that you could have had gotten on hand (without even hurting your portfolio) for later down the road when the BTC price might end up going to way lower levels of withdrawal authorizations. and then once the BTC spot price falls back down then you are back to ONLY being able to cash out one month at a time.. at least in terms of the guidelines of the chart, and since it is your money, you are not even restricted by the guidelines of the chart.. you can completely abandon the chart.. and then likely be stuck in even a worse state, especially since the limitations of the chart is meant to empower you rather than to really restrict you.   Of course, if you were to be a trustee of a fund and you are mandated to be following these kinds of guidelines, then that would be another story.. but as an individual, you can do whatever you like.


I doubt that 100% in works for very many people, and from my perspective it puts you in a worse position in terms of potentially drawing red flags.. and sure it might work for guys who have figured out how to earn in bitcoin and spend in bitcoin.. but many folks, and especially if we are referring to normies, we are going to have feet in both worlds, even if we might have 70% to 90% of our wealth in bitcoin, we also might have various kinds of fiat related funds, expenses and ways of transacting.

I suppose even someone who has everything in bitcoin, they still could use some kind of a chart like mine in terms of figuring out if the amount of their BTC is being spent in a sustainable way.. and surely if they have an income in bitcoin and they are spending less than they earn, then the extra would presumably be going into some kind of a fund (or cold storage), and if the income ever dries up, then there would still some guidelines to spend in a sustainable way instead of depleting the principle..

Even with my chart, there may be some attempts to follow the guidelines in perpetuity.. but then if we suddenly die then do we have a plan for whatever is left in the fund at that time?  Do we have an administrator who can take over the fund?  Or if we have notice of our impeding death, do we either want to spend the money more rapidly or to donate the money or to just die with the BTC in our wallets in order to give back to the then remaining BTC HODLers.


I think that my chart already attempts to give guidance on that in terms of where the BTC spot price is in regards to the 200-week moving average, and whether the S&P and various other macro-factors are overinflated or underinflated, then surely that could affect your decision on the margins, but I think that part of the reason that I have been thinking about these kind of ideas for so long and have been trying to work on a chart in regards to how to think about the BTC price is in order to not have to try to factor in so many unknowables.... but just have a plan that is more based on what is known - which is how far away from the 200-week moving average is the BTC spot price, and does that authorize me to spend more or not, and if so how much.  

At some point we might consider is the 200-week moving average a good indicator (it is based on the average weekly price over 4 years), or should be be using the 300-week moving average (which would be the 6-year weekly average) in order to attempt to be more long term in the way that we manage our spending within our bitcoin holdings.


Well my entry-level fuck you status chart should help to give you some ideas regarding how many BTC that you feel that you need by what year, and if you ONLY have 8 BTC, but you want to get to the default entry-level fuck you status of 10 BTC within 10 years, then maybe you still need to be buying or earning around $300 to $400 per week in bitcoin in order to increase your stash by more 2 BTC in 10 years... and according to my entry-level fuck you status chart, 10 BTC would be enough to be at entry-level fuck you status by early 2034... and of course, until your stash of coins crosses over into entry level fuck you status, you are not necessarily going to know that the 200-week moving average will continue to go up as projected.. so if you end up overly preparing and you end up getting 10 BTC by 2026 and then 12 BTC by 2030  and then 13 BTC by 2032.. and then maybe somewhere along the preparations the lines will cross in which you might start to feel that you have either accumulated enough BTC or maybe even that you accumulated more than enough.. or on the other hand, if your accumulation does not end up going as well, then 8 BTC might still end up being enough to enter into entry-level fuck you status by 2035.  We kind of have to be prepared to do our best and hope that our preparations continue to pay off, and even if you have ONLY been in BTC as long as your forum registration date, then you have not quite been in a full cycle, and maybe you do need another full cycle of BTC accumulation before you start to get more tangibly closer to a position in which you might end up changing away from an accumulation status.


Of course, this chart is meant to be something that supplements my other investment ideas in regards to getting your whole portfolio up to a size in which you can reference the whole thing and then start some kind of a sustainable withdrawal (to the extent that you might feel that you are out of the investing and accumulating stage), or of course, you could just divide part of your BTC investment portfolio into a spendable amount if you would rather allow your other portion to continue to grow.. or just stay in cold storage.

I cannot recall if you ever said where you are at in your bitcoin accumulation journey and if you feel that you are getting close to being done with accumulation? and moving into maintenance and perhaps some variation of liquidation. .which this could help with those kinds of ideas/practices.


I frequently come across posts from members who seem to not really know how to attempt to elegantly spend from their bitcoin profits, and so it seems that many times, there are difficulties in understand how to reach a goal of accumulating a certain number of bitcoins and then to not just cash out everything all at once and then end up depleting the principle.. which surely can seem tempting if there is no alternative plan regarding how to proceed in such a way that is meant to still allow cashing out in a forever kind of way and to try to maintain the value of the principle.. and perhaps if the principle keeps growing, then the withdrawal rate might also be able to be increased..  

As I mentioned in my response to Poker Player, I believe that so far in bitcoin's history even a 15% withdrawal rate could have had been maintained, as long as the withdrawal rate is based on the 200-week moving average value of the holdings.. but a lot of times people also use the spot price, so they would be all over the place in terms of whether they might be overly depleting the principle.. so then one of the problems in the last 1.5 years, is that each of those 6 months the 200-week moving average only grew by 10% for each of the 6 week periods, yet since the 200-week moving average had tended to grown much faster than that, even 15% would still likely average out as sustainable.. so I might at some point be willing to move my 4% up to a higher level.. maybe even 8% or higher, but I am nervous to do that for now...even though maybe it is also problematic if the principle keeps growing way faster than it is being spent, then at some point there will be some justification to move it up to a higher rate.. and some folks already have enough information that they would be more than willing to raise it to something like 12% and then adjust it to a lower rate at a later date, if needed... so there still is quite a bit of flexibility in terms of what is sustainable and perpetual.. especially in such a buddingly new asset class like bitcoin..

Any sane person reading this thread, better come quickly to these conclusions:

1) JjGLBtQ++ is a fagot AI, run mainly by his two daddies, with the sole purpose of controlling the Bitcoin narrative.

2) Selling - at the peak - 60%-90% of the Bitcoin accumulated in every four year cycle is a must.

3) Humans cannot actually rationalise with AI’s, it is not their “thing” - only much worse with JjGLBtQ++ Bitcoin focused AI.