The only strategy investors can use to buy, is when there is hopeful sign of increment in the price, topical example is, last week the price of bitcoin was between 50k-51k, just imagine when an investor buy at that price at least he or she would have gained about 11k plus, hence btc price is at 62k plus currently but this doesn't happen every time, event might turn against ones plan, the only method a Bitcoin investor will apply to be successful is long-term holding which you have mentioned already, Bitcoin investment is not for fast money making, it is for those who are ready to endure for a long period of time to participate in the profitable events that is bound to happen at some given number of years.

DCA calculators do not tell you how much you will make in the future.  They ONLY show past performance, which that does not mean that you would profit in the future. 

I think that it is it better to figure out your own formula in terms of investing as much as you feel comfortable, while realizing that you might not gain any money and you also might lose all of it.

For beginners going into bitcoin, you should at least consider the below 9 factors:. .and DCA with small amounts while you are learning is also o.k. in order that you can determine if you would like to become more aggressive, and at the same time it is important to get started sooner rather than later in order that you can get some kind of a start and even getting set up with how you are going to source your buys can take a bit of time to figure out and maybe to adapt along the way, too.

Yes.  I agree that it is more challenging to enter into an investment after the price has risen a lot, including if you consider that bitcoin has risen right around 4x since November 2022  or even more than 2x since October 2023.

Nonetheless, as an investor, especially a newbie who might be considering establishing a BTC position, you may well want to make sure that you are prepared for either UP or down, and the ONLY way to prepare for up is to buy some bitcoin.  If you do not have any bitcoin, then you are not prepared for UP, and waiting does not constitute being prepared for up.

Now as a newbie if you think that you are some kind of expert or you have some kind of superior knowledge (or hunch) that the BTC price is going to drop, then maybe you would risk waiting, but that seems to be just gambling rather than really being serious about investing.

One of the best strategies for anyone, including newbies, would be to perform some kind of a lump sum investment right away, but then to make sure that he has additional funds (whether from cashflow or just holding back some of the invested amount) to either keep buying no matter what and to also potentially hold back some funds in order to prepare to buy on dips.

One of the problems with lump sum investing and also the situation of a lot of normies is that normies (meaning most normal people) do not have have abilities to lump sum, and that is why DCA tends to be so effective and/or practical. So if there is some cash just coming in on a regular basis and some of that is considered disposable/discretionary income, then you determine how much of that you want to dedicate to investing into bitcoin, and then the question would be whether to invest right away or to hold some of it back for buying on dips.

Another thing is that if someone is new to investing, it well could take 10 years (at 10% invested/saved) to be able to invest up to a year's salary, so it take a whole fucking long time to really build any kind of meaningful portfolio, so if you happen to be someone who is fairly new to investing and you have been investing way less than 10 years, you are probably better off just DCAing most of the amount that you allocate, and perhaps considering whether there might be some value to holding some of that back for buying on dips.

Now if you are someone who has other funds that you can allocate, then that puts you into a situation of someone who can lump sum part of that, and if you are someone who has been investing into bitcoin for several years, then you also might have the luxury of letting off on your DCA in these price territories, but it still may not necessarily make sense to let off on your BTC accumulation unless you have figured out some strategies in which you have already assessed that you have accumulated enough BTC or that you have over accumulated.  If you are not able to make those kinds of determinations, then it probably would be better to just continue buying BTC regularly until you reach such status. .and that is surely and truly under your own criteria that you would reach such an assessment about your own situation.

If you are merely looking at the current BTC price move, that is only one of the factors, and surely, you might consider that there are better places to put your money - even though personally, it seems like a problematic determination, especially if you have already assessed that you have neither reached sufficient/adequate BTC accumulation or overaccumulation.


Of course, if you have  spent a considerable amount of time accumulating BTC, then you may well have reached a status of either accumulating enough BTC or even having had over accumulated BTC, so you have more options once you reach those kinds of assessments.. and since you have been registered on this forum for nearly 9 years, since April 2015, you have had a lot of opportunities to accumulate bitcoin throughout the last 9 years, yet at the same time, you likely realize that bitcoin currently is not really in a position of being overly valued - especially considering what happened in the last couple of years and the significant amount of ongoing existent and persistent buying pressures coming from a lot of new categories of buyers, and also including that BIG financial institutions are now starting to market their products that would require that they are backed by actual bitcoin rather than paper bitcoin.

So you should be attempting to account for actual factors that involve assessments of BTC price and whether you might consider that bitcoin has higher price potential from here. You are responsible for coming to your own assessments that would involve how many BTC you believe is sufficient and adequate preparation for up.. and yeah always trying to be prepared financially and psychologically for the BTC price to move in either direction in the short to medium term, while at the same time keeping your eye on the prize, in the event that you actually are able to understand what makes bitcoin valuable and likely more valuable than any other asset currently in existence... and you don't even have to believe all of those kinds of bullish ideas in order to figure out your own allocations and how much you need to assure that you are prepared for either and both possible BTC price directions at the same time based on your assessing the particulars and viewpoints of each of your own assessments of the 9 factors.

Another thing is that it can take a lot of practice to really  get some kind of balance in your own life in terms of assessing the 9 factors so that you end up being comfortable with your own allocation choices, including the extent to which you might feel that you want to approach bitcoin with a whimpy approach or a more aggressive approach, and maybe also assessing if you want to allocate somewhere between 5% to 25% of your investment into bitcoin and so 5% would be on the more whimpy side and 25% would be on the more aggressive side, but you can ONLY afford to be aggressive if you have done some of the necessary studying of your own circumstances.  Of course you are free to go outside of that range, but the 5% to 25% is an initial starting point to figure out where you might fall within that recommended starting range.

You are actually right on this bro, Bitcoin investment is more beneficial to a long term thinker or a long term holder, just look at the statistics of Bitcoin of how it has grown and gain popularity over the years, It has practically behaved like a fine 🍷 wine, it has gotten better with age, I believe that with the uniqueness of Bitcoin, it will get even better.

Lastly, you just don't have to be perfect in knowledge about Bitcoin before you invest, you just need a basic knowledge on how to invest through the DCA method and a deeper knowledge later on how to hold effectively, by having an emergency fund and a source of income, so that you don't have to be eating from your investment when facing financial troubles.

I think choosing to take profits is never wrong. Maybe they determine that their current investment in Bitcoin is a short-term investment. When the time and profit level match the rules they initially set, they will take profits, whether that strategy is good or not good depends on each person's goals. I know a few friends who went through the 2021 cycle with the expectation that Bitcoin would reach 100k USD to take profits. They had really strong hands for a very long time to achieve that target, but then they missed the rising wave that year when Bitcoin price only reached 69k USD and turned around. And now, those friends of mine no longer play the old way, but they play according to every wave of the market. And from the beginning of 2023 until now, they have had very significant profits.
According to you, how long do you think long-term holding should be? Or just hold it without thinking about the profit-taking phase. This topic is clearly discussing about long-term holding, but we must know how long we will hold Bitcoin? Because basically buying Bitcoin and holding it is just an investment process, and investing requires thinking about profit. We can't just hold on without paying attention to how the market goes up or down.

That is not true.  If you consider that the meaning of taking profits is that you have gotten more dollars, and then you take profits in dollars, your dollars might not be holding value as well as you believe that they are, and so you are being mislead about the benefits of taking profits and/or even when it might be prudent to "take profits."   Another thing is that if you look at bitcoin over the long term, then even if there is a lot of up and down volatility, the ultimate direction of volatility has been in the upwards direction, so taking profits from the most sound (pristine) asset that has ever existed may well end up putting you on the wrong side of the greatest wealth transfer of our time (and perhaps in history).


It is a dangerous game to be fucking around with trading the best asset... but hey do what you like and hopefully you don't get caught on the wrong side of a trade... and another problem might be playing with leverage to make it even worse if you are on the wrong side of an asset that is generally already has been winning quite a bit and likely to continue to win and you don't even have to play with leverage, which makes it available to everyone so long as they mostly buy and hold and don't be fucking around with getting in and out and taking chances.

By the way the guys who might have bought at the top of the 2021 periods are likely now back in profits, and even more so if they had been buying all along rather than fucking around with getting in and out, which might not work out very well... so in that sense, ongoing buying becomes almost a sure bet (even though nothing is guaranteed), and so even if their costs might have ended up relatively high because of their buying at relatively high price times, there were a lot of opportunities over the last couple of years to bring down their cost per BTC and to be sitting in a very good position right now, and they would not even be needing to sell, merely because if they are in profits and have the option to sell, there likely will be a lot of opportunities and additional options if they continue to hold and perhaps even continue to buy and especially if their investment timeline might be for longer terms such as for the next 4-10 years or longer.


4-10 years or longer from any additional purchase, and surely if a guy might start as a brand new investor, he might consider regular investments might take 30-40 years to play out and to start to draw from them, but it well could be the case that the time before starting to draw from bitcoin might even be reasonable to cut in half, such as 15-20 years, even though nothing is guaranteed. 

For people who are not brand new investors, they might have to consider how much of an investment portfolio that they had already built up prior to coming into bitcoin, but I would still consider that any new purchases should be considered with a 4-10 year time horizon.. and if your time horizon is less than 4 years, for every new purchase of BTC, then you may well not be a longer term investor... and you may still have your reasons for getting bitcoin exposure for shorter time periods, but I would not necessarily consider new investments of less than 4 years to be long term, but more like gambles that may or may not pay off, so there might need to be some care in regards to position size, especially when devolving into gambling rather than investing.


In long term investing, besides being narrowly focused on profits, you can also think in terms of potentially having more options, especially with an investment like bitcoin that is likely better able to hold its value as compared with the dollar or any other asset that might be held.. so if you hold long enough then your investment likely compounds upon itself, so then you have way more options if you are 3x to 5x to 10x to 50x up in profits as compared to taking simple profits that are less than 100%, which a lot of folks tend to be taking profits way too soon and then they end up interferring with bitcoin's compounding process.  Look at the power of compounding in my post that includes some examples.


To simplify some of the calculations, if you hold your BTC long enough then you likely will have more options in terms of how much profits you are already in, so let's say that your cost per BTC is around $1k per BTC.   And, so if the price of BTC is below $10k per BTC in 2020 (so you are around 10x in profits), and then if the BTC price goes up to where you are 70x in profits and then comes back down to where you are 16x.. does it make big differences if you might just cash some out at various points in time?   It is not like you necessarily have to cash out large portions at a time in order to enjoy having BTC in your holdings.

Yeah, sure you can cash out some extra when the price is 40x, 50x 60x or more, but you are not totally screwed either, even if you might have ended up having to cash out some at lower multiples of profits... and should you worry right now that the BTC price is going to go back to $20k (only 20x in profits)? 

I would think with the passage of time, you see that the 200-WMA continues to move up (which tends to mostly be a bottom indicator).  In 2020, the 200-WMA was ONLY right around $6k, and BTC's price action of 2021 brought it up to $20k, and then currently it is around $31,600.. which mean the bottom is moving up, and the bottom is now 31.6x for the guy with an average cost per BTC of $1k.  You can look at the historical 200-WMA values here.

If you are getting in and out of BTC, are you able to bring down your average cost per BTC? and/or are you able to increase your BTC stash (and your options?)  I think that you are in a much less certain place if you are getting in and out.. rather than engaging in more simple ongoing and consistent BTC building.

In life their are always challenges, problems are always around the corners, if you allow challenges to hold you down it will be impossible to bitcoin.  Hodling is not easy for anyone but people made it possible because of good decision to make sure they accomplished good profit holding.  If we always look up to our challenges,  we won't be to hodl bitcoin.

Holding or trading just like we do is working to make money and it has never been considered easy. Our lives are already difficult and will become even more difficult when we engage in risky ways of making money. But even though holding bitcoin will be more difficult than daily manual work, but if we are ready to face it and we can overcome it all. We will also receive more worthy rewards. Therefore, I think we should stop complaining once we accept to participate in the game, and if you are afraid that you cannot do it and it is too difficult for you, then it is best for you to leave the market.

I don't have any problem with the idea in regards to talking about the advantages and disadvantages of holding and/or ways to potentially game the profitability of up and down BTC price moves - especially since the topic does have potential for exploring those kinds of angles.  Accordingly, I had not criticized your post for being off topic, but instead attempted to criticize your seeming presumption that trading in and out of positions would automatically be advantageous even if dollar profits might be assessed to have had taken place. 


Of course, if you do not have any other income and you are striving to get income from trading, then you might be in a bit of a pickle in terms of how to invest and/or set aside value in such a way that you are able to profit from the investment (in this case bitcoin) as an investment and also to be able to get the compounding value out of it that tends to come from abilities to hold it in the longer term rather than short term scalping of dollar value.



Of course, if someone does not have any other source of income, they have to generate income in some kind of way, and if their most profitable way to get income is by trading BTC and/or other kinds of trading, then that would be their circumstances and they still might need to assess the extent to which they are advantaging trading bitcoin as compared with other less pristine assets that they might trade.

I am not even proclaiming that anyone is able to invest into bitcoin or anything else unless they have some level of discretionary/disposable income.  So if someone does not have discretionary/disposable income, then they are not in a position to invest.  By the way, discretionary/disposable income is the extra income that is available after expenses are paid, so in other words, people who do not have discretionary/disposable income are not in a position to invest, and if those people are buying and selling bitcoin then they are gambling, trading and/or generating income and they are not investing... so investing still could come if they ended up generating more income than their expenses, so then if they have extra income that would be discretionary/disposable income that they could invest and/or use for extra consumption purposes

It would be their choice whether to invest with their extra income.. and part of the dilemma for the trader/gambler/someone generating income from trading is that they will frequently be tempted to use their extra income for trading purposes rather than investing with that extra income.. which could come back to bite them in the ass several years down the road when they might end up not having shit to show for all of the income that they generated through the years, but did not invest any of it but instead just traded with any extra income that passed through their hands.


I did not say anything is wrong for me.  I was attempting to describe the historical power of bitcoin as an investment and the likely continued ongoing power of bitcoin as an investment, and in the end, guys can do whatever they like, even though they might end up shooting themselves in the foot if they presume that there is value to take profits in dollars. 

Of course, as you mentioned, profits could also be taken in bitcoin, but if they put that bitcoin capital back to work and they are trading with it rather than setting it aside, then it would be much more difficult to consider any aspect of their bitcoin approach as an investment, unless they were to have some kind of system in which they are building their bitcoin in a way that does not unnecessarily put it at the extra risks of trading with it.   

One of the errors that people sometimes make, even with bitcoin, is that they wrongly conclude that there is some kind of need to earn yield or to generate profits on their BTC, which surely could end up being problematic if the bitcoin have to be stored or held by others in order to generate such yield, and if we assess bitcoin as an investment, it is already designed to pump forever in terms of its sound money attributes, and so there is no need to put your bitcoin at extra risk in order to be able to be advantaged from its sound money attributes that are more and more likely to pay off the longer that the bitcoin is held...   

In recent years, I have become increasingly bothered by attempts to evaluate bitcoin value based on spot price, even though spot price is relevant for any time that a person is going to buy or sell bitcoin - so I have tended to gravitate towards the 200-WMA as a great tool for evaluating bitcoin value - and especially becomes more and more useful for guys holding their coins for more than 4 years, and maybe even better if they are using such valuation mechanism when they are holding their BTC 4-10 years or longer.

Don't get me wrong.  I am not trying to totally poo-poo the idea of earning income from trading, because there surely may be places in which a person is able to earn more from trading rather than from doing regular work that is available in the area or available based on the persons skills and/or job experiences - even though skills and job experiences can be built up in order to increase income.  So there are trade-offs to any profession and/or how one chooses to spend time to generate income.  At the same time, I can appreciate that there can be difficulties for anyone to engage in investment practices, whether he has a separate job from trading or if his primary (or only) source of income is from trading. 

So there can be a lot of discretion regarding how much to set aside from income for investing, and through most of my life I had been saving and/or investing 10% of my income, and in my earliest years, the 10% was not very much, and there were quite a few struggles with that including figuring out where to put it, but it still can add up over the years.  I also know from my own experiences, that an overwhelming number of people are not ready, willing and/or able to even set aside 10% of their income for savings/investing.  You are not necessarily free from those kinds of considerations merely because your income source comes from trading, but I can see how a trader might have difficulties setting aside separate "don't touch" funds because there can be some value in terms of generating enough working capital in order to increase the size of his trades with the passage of time, but he still may well need to be setting some of his generated funds aside into some kind of classification of "don't touch" funds which would be considered long term investment/savings, even if he might have other funds that are his "working capital."



In the case of bitcoin, it is not really compound interest, but instead compounding value, but it is a similar idea. One of the problems with compound interest is that someone would need to pay you for that, and bitcoin is already designed in such a way that there is no need to take the extra risk for any kind of interest that you might gain from turning your bitcoin over to a third party.  ON the other hand, if there are ways to earn interest on BTC without extra counter-party risk (or only minimal counter-party risk) then that might be acceptable in some circumstances, but in bitcoin's base investing case, it is not necessary to earn interest and/or yield from it, since bitcoin is already designed to pump forever (or increase in value forever if you prefer a more neutral way of saying it).


Of course if your investment timeline is less than 4 years, then it may well be problematic to call that investing.  Of course, as an individual you can do whatever you like in terms of assessing risk and market price movements in shorter time periods, but that may well be considered as trading or gambling rather than investing, and likely in need of position size reduction in order to account for the additional risk that comes from shorter term plays.   In then end people can do whatever they like, but from my perspective it is problematic to call less than 4 year stents in bitcoin as investments, so there could be some quibbling going on here in terms of what to call it.. or how to play such short-term stents in bitcoin, if any one chooses to allocate value into bitcoin for shorter than 4-year timelines.


This is sounding a bit like a quibble over semantics, if you want to proclaim that some forms of trading still should be considered as "investments," which might not be totally wrong, even though for me it seems to mish-mash the concepts if you cannot attempt to figure out some kind of way to differentiate trading/gambling from investing... and don't get me wrong, I do agree that there are some guys who are able to structure their trades in such a way that they are never going to lose, but that is not the case for typical normal people.  Learning how to make trades profitable under all conditions is a learned skill, and some guys are better at it than others.  Investing tends to take a lot fewer skills, especially in the realm of mostly honing personal financial management skills in order to accurately calculate discretionary/disposable income and to invest within the parameters of such discretionary/disposable income which likely also includes figuring out ways to maintain and/or manage emergency funds, reserve funds and monthly cash floats. 

So yeah, I mentioned that I consider bitcoin to have a 4-10 year or more investment timeline, which is also supported by the information contained in the OP of this thread.  Of course there are other places to hold money that might have shorter-timelines and/or more guarantees not to lose money, so yeah people do need to account for their timelines in terms of where to keep their value or even how aggressive they might be in their employment of various investment approaches.


That sounds correct, yet maybe I would probably phrase it a bit differently, which might be something like the deferral of gratification today in order to have the potential of having more options in the future, whether that is for oneself or for passing to heirs.  At the same time, there are going to be balances between how much to spend/consume today versus how much to save/invest, and of course, there likely would be preferences that the savings/investments at least hold current purchasing power and potentially increase in purchasing power, while at the same time there is continuous uncertainties in terms of how to save/invest in order to not lose future purchasing power... which get's us back to the idea regarding why bitcoin is likely to serve a large role in terms of the allocation of savings/investments,

and perhaps part of the reason why between 2014 and 2020 I moved from recommending to newbies (no coiners and/or low coiners) 1% to 10% in bitcoin (and during that period I would frequently suggest to just get off zero), and then from 2020 to 2023, I started to recommend 1% to 25% in bitcoin , and in 2024 I started recommending 5% to 25% in bitcoin.   Of course, people are responsible for their own choices, and they are free to allocate however, they like, and it is their choice whether to follow any suggestion from some lame rando on the interwebs, because in the end, I am not taking any responsibility for their choices to invest in bitcoin or not to invest in bitcoin or whether to trade or gamble with their bitcoin, that is on each of us to figure out what we are going to do and how we are going to spend our time, energies and value.


I still suggest that it could take 15 to 20 years for any newbie bitcoin investor to get to the point in which he is able to live off of his bitcoin without having to do outside work.  Of course, if someone comes to bitcoin after already invested in other areas, then it could be possible to cut the timeline down, including if he is close to fuck you status with whatever funds that he is reallocating into bitcoin.

If you think about it, even if a person invests 10% of his income into bitcoin, it is going to take 10 years just to have 1 year of income invested into bitcoin, and so then if his income is able to grow to entry-level fuck you status (which tends to be 20 to 30 years of income), then the ONLY ways to grow faster is that the investment must grow a lot or maybe the amount invested would have to be greater than 10%, and guys can figure out these kinds of allocation matters and also how aggressive that they are able to be in terms of investing into bitcoin and getting their bitcoin portfolio to a sufficiently large enough size in order to start to either live off of it or to have their bitcoin supplement their current income. See my post on sustainable withdrawal and perhaps other parts of that thread for the discussion of such sustainable withdrawal ideas.