Thanks for noticing.

I had to make several changes and deleted this line by mistake. It is working again. Click Ctrl F5 if you can't see the fix

Fixed! Now every time you change any input the price switch will be verified for calculations.

It is good that you are helping me to debug it. So many things to test.

I made a more solid function now,I think everything is working. Please tell me if you see anything that isn't working as expected.


I have been thing about those btc cycles (which is a bit off topic maybe, I will write about it in WO later). Maybe those cycles theory about bitcoin will not be fit anymore?

I mean, maybe we won't see such big drops again, such as below 50-70k zone.


Yeah, this can be done. I will work on it!

It could be the same button for both charts as well.

Thanks.  I think that the tool remains amazing in terms of being able to make certain calculations that compare the 200-WMA to spot price 1) in current time frames, 2) upon inputting historical dates, and even 3) helping to guide with our thinking about how many bitcoin is enough or how many bitcoin we might be authorized to sell under certain BTC price conditions.  

So, I am not bothered by sometimes needing to refresh here and there and to make sure that the fields are loading properly, but yeah sometimes there are needs to make sure that the resulting numbers are correct (and showing properly) since sometimes if some of the fields are showing incorrect numbers there could be a need to refresh or to input some of the fields again or to go through each of the settings (such as the glider to make sure that the annual withdrawal rate is set at our preferred level)... By the way, i had mentioned previously that I sometimes find that drag glider for the withdrawal rate to be difficult to land at the exact right number, so it might be good to have the option of manually inputting the number to be able to put it in precisely (which currently allows within 0.25% increments) as well as using the glider.. .which sometimes can be more challenging to use the glider on a phone or with non-dexterous hands or non-dexterous pointing devices that some folks might have.. problems with their mouse or even problems with their touch screen or their tacking pad).

There is one little new thing that I have already noticed can sometimes be a little annoying for this here cat, which is the pop up window that stays in place for right around 15 seconds - but it covers up the 200-WMA toggle.. Is there a way to have that pop up window to come up to the right side so that it might be over the "Bitcoin Price 200 WMA Chart" rather than popping up right over the top of the toggle switch?

Here's a picture of it, popping up and covering up the toggle switch.  You see what I mean?  

I know it is only popped up for about 15 seconds (which is not unreasonable), but still if such window were to pop up just to right rather than right over the top of the toggle switch, that would be preferable, at least for me... since I have noticed that I already like to switch back and forth between windows and then to toggle the switch to make sure that I am seeing different numbers or how the numbers change whether the toggle is on spot price versus on 200-WMA... and then each time that I click to "use this date" that warning window pops up for something in the ballpark of 15 seconds.. sure I could click the x to close it... but I would rather not have to click it at all, just let it expire after 15 seconds, but to spend its live time in a place that is not interferring with my ability to click and/or to readily see where I am at..





Sure, currently $50k to $70k are likely no longer in the cards, since we still seem to be in a bull season and the BTC price does not tend to drop below 25% higher than the 200-WMA during bull seasons, yet at the same time, anything is possible, even though some things are more likely than others, which it seems to me that it can both take a lot of risk for sellers to sell coins or for buyers to fail to buy coins with expectations that they are going to be able to buy cheaper when currently we have BTC prices aright around 136% higher than the 200-WMA, so even an extensive price drop takes quite a bit of energy.  

In that regard, we should not be considering extensive BTC price drops to have had been historically happening in bitcoin absent some great price run ups in which the price gets ahead of demand, so in some sense there are needs for blow off tops or even mini blow off tops to justify large corrections of 30% to 50% or more... and in recent times we have not been experiencing those kinds of violent uppity price moves.. at least not so far... even though surely onggoing UPpity without major corrections even if the ongoing UPpity is relatively gradual could also justify some extensive and/or deep corrections.

And, at the same time the 200-WMA continues to move up, so by the time we get to the end of the year, the 200-WMA could well be into the $70k or even quite higher.

Maybe we are saying similar things in different ways, yet we can see from bitcoin's history and even browsing through various downward correction periods shown in the tool, that our having spent so much time below the 200-WMA between June 2022 and October 2023 was quite an unusual kind of happening in bitcoin's price history, yet the fact that such a thing happened such recently bitcoin history should alert us to the fact that some variation of those kinds of BTC price dynamics are not outside of reasonable possibilities, even if it might not end up happening as extremely as it did between June 2022 and October 2023.

On a personal level, I have hard times ruling out various extremes or overly placing expectations on what bitcoin might or might not do in the short-term, so in that regard, it seems to me that each of us should be trying to manage our own bitcoin accumulation strategies, our holdings or even our withdrawal strategies in such ways that account for extremes that may or may not end up happening.  I also consider selling too much too soon or failing to buy to be greater risks than riding out various possible BTC price extremes .. since of course, I consider that the use of this tool for time based withdrawal (that incorporates considerations of price movements) likely works better when we already have more coins and have already exceeded our overaccumulation status in such a way that we have a decently good number of extra coins to deal with in terms of selling whether the BTC price is up, down or sideways, and such luxury seems to be better accomplished when we make sure we remain in overaccumulation status and engage in conduct to not knock ourselves out of overaccumulation status.


I have seen some of those above charts previously and some of the discussions around them, and those kinds of articles/charts (even the ones you show) are not out of line with some of the ways that I have been projecting getting to overaccumulation status or to fuck you status, even though surely I could probably be in a better position to update my fuck you status chart projections since frequently I am trying to tend to rely on the 200-WMA as a kind of base that grounds where the BTC price is going or might be going so that plans are attempted to be made around the relation of the BTC spot price to the 200-WMA.. so potentially grounded in the 200-WMA rather than the sometimes seemingly whimsical movements of spot prices.  

We still do not have a fuck you status chart projection (tool)^** that could allow members to input their data and/or their expectations of future BTC 200-WMA movements that would then logically attempt to consider our actions that might be based on future BTC price projections relative to future 200-WMA projections. I have been going with an assumption that the BTC price tends to stay at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA during bull seasons and yeah can end up being 100% to 1,400% higher than the 200-WMA.. but then during bear seasons that we can get BTC prices touching the 200-WMA and even going up to 35% below the 200-WMA... which maybe some of the extremes won't happen again, yet from my perspective we should still attempt to be prepared for such extremes even if they might not be so likely. and from my perspective there are ways to prepare for such extremes without devolving into making heavy bets with our BTC holdings.. that would result in selling too much BTC too soon or failing/refusing to make sure that we are always sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP by making sure that we are ongoingly accumulating bitcoin, especially if we are still far from reaching our overaccumulation status.

**Bitmover and I have talked about ways that some kind of a tool to manually input variable to create fuck you status could be created, yet so far such fuck you status tool has not gotten past the theoretical and visionary stages.

Let's use your forum registration date of February 2018, and let's say that a guy was fairly aggressive in his BTC accumulation since early 2018, and he decided to put 25% of his income into bitcoin, which would have had meant that after 4 years (by early 2022) he would have had already achieved putting a whole year's salary into bitcoin, yet if he is in the midst of 2022, he is not going to want to stop accumulating bitcoin through at least 2022 and 2023, yet maybe by 2024, he can start to slow down in his bitcoin accumulation... but let's see where he would have had gotten with a 25% accumulation status from early 2018 to early 2024.. so a nice 6 years of accumulating bitcoin that adds up to frontloading right around 1.5 years of his income into bitcoin within 6 years...

I am going to presume an average of $50k per year income for the 6 year period (even though maybe the income might go up by 5% or more each year with scheduled increases and/or promotions), but still .. just for ease of calculations, I am going to use $50k as a constant.  Accordingly, 25% of $50k is $12.5k, which would be $240 per week, so then after investing $240 per week between February 2018 and February 2024, you would have invested about $75.4k and accumulated about 6.26 BTC, which may well not put you into overaccumulation status... since maybe you are aiming to be able to get to an income from your BTC of $80k per year, yet right now, as I type this post, 6.26 BTC merely has a 200-WMA value of right about $317k and a BTC spot value of $748k, and surely I would use the 200-WMA value to calculate that at most you could draw $31.7k per year from that quantity of BTC in a sustainable way.

Of course, in this particular example, the hypothetical guy had accumulated BTC at $240 per week for 6 years and then decided to stop accumulating bitcoin at that time, yet surely there are alternative versions of events in which the guy could have just continued to accumulate BTC at the same rate or even at a reduced rate so that he would make progress towards reaching overaccumulation status (and/or entry-level fuck you status) at a sooner time... . yet at the same time, even if this guy choose to stop accumulating bitcoin with a stash size of 6.26 BTC, some time in early 2028 his 6.26 BTC would cross over the threshold of his overaccumulation status^** which is the ability to earn a passive income of $80k per year forever and also presumptively accounting for a 7% per year increasing of the dollar amount to account for the debasement of the dollar(fiat) and/or the increases in the cost of living that is built into our current fiat debt system.

**You, fillippone, likely realize that I continue to not be great at publishing properly formatted fuck you status and other lengthy tables, so I have not updated my fuck you status table on my thread since late 2023 (which I am pretty sure that you helped me with the formatting of that table), yet I have made some updates to the table that go up to May of 2025 since the numbers are only updated with actual factual data twice per year.  Furthermore my current non-published table not only accounts for the traditional $2 million wealth status that would have a traditional 4% withdrawal rate, yet a $800k status and a 10% annual withdrawal rate (which I believe is the better applicable standard) and then a filth-rich status of $100 million that can be used as a kind of reference point for those guys who might be interested in either entering or considering what might be needed to enter into the beginning levels of filthy rich status.  By the way, from my own sustainable withdrawal conceptualizations, anyone reaching entry level filthy rich status that accounts for having $100 million of bitcoin valued at the 200-WMA prices, would have the ability to sustainably withdraw $10 million per year ($833k per month) forever and ever into the future, even accounting for a 7% per year increase in the dollar amount every year.  If you are interested to help me to update the latest fuck you status table, then that might be helpful to our current discussion and to other discussions of this topic.

On another side note, I have frequently proclaimed that if there is a greater cushion in the overaccumulation status, then more options will exist, yet with bitcoin, there is an incentive to live within our means, since even the guy who starts to withdraw from his BTC once it has reached an $80k per year income level based on the 200-WMA (which currently is 15.82 BTC), he also could choose to purposefully live below that level of annual income from his BTC, such as only withdrawing $70k per year from his BTC, and then after a few years, he would likely be able to increase his withdrawal rate to something around $100k per year merely based on the passage of time and bitcoin's ongoing appreciation and compounding value upon itself in terms of the 200-WMA has so far always gone up and never gone down (at least so far), and still once the withdrawal begins, the guy should be able to figure out a rate, which I personally consider to be 10% based on the 200-WMA valuations (and going through withdrawal rate reductions once the BTC spot price drops below 25% above the 200-WMA), so having the withdraw rate to be sustainable and still have it able to start to increase at 7% per year from one year after his beginning withdrawal time and into the future.

Hello JayJuanGee

Made few changes in design and added the text area to use as an alternative to the range bar




https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

I will take a look at the other chart later on!!

This is something that can be done in tool as well, it would be like a third option , the most conservative method. Spot Price, SWMA price and Both. We need to think about better names to this. I will ask suggestions for chatgpt later on


THe brush chart is pretty amazing, we can see how people looked at the charts in the past (without seeing what happened later). Like this, in 2017 bull run





The problem is that this may become just a trading tool. Which basically doesn't work for short term imo...

For bitcoin long term, basically any strategy to buy works very well 
But yeah, using 200WMA is always better. The point is that in the future, even after a big drop, prices might be higher than now...

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The simulation now works with the spot price 200 wma price switch.


Please try! I think everything is working now.

Clear cache!