You always hear the pundits saying that the rise of inflation suppresses the price of risk assets such as stocks and bitcoin, as interest rates are pushed up in an attempt to control inflation.
But if bitcoin is a hedge against inflation then shouldn't the bitcoin price rise when inflation goes up instead of going down?
I'm guessing the answer would be that inflation causes bitcoin price to go down in the short term, but in the long term causes it to go up? If so then why?
I am just an amateur, so I am not claiming special knowledge:
As far as I know the relation between Bitcoin price and interest rates is:
Lets assume you have 1 million USD and are looking for a return of 10 % per year, you have invested in shares, bonds and real estate, nothing fancy, no Bitcoin because you consider it too risky with prices going up and down.
Now the interest rates go down, means people can easily borrow more money and
because of more demand the prices are going up - means more inflation. The lower interest rate means some of your investments make a lower return. In total you maybe make only 8% per year now.
In order to improve your return you now buy Bitcoin because there is a chance to make more profit, and you are prepared to accept a higher risk in regards to Bitcoin. So mor edemand for Bitcoin- Bitcoin prices go up....
After some time with inflation the interest rates will be set higher, to make it harder to borrow money, and less money is chasing the same amount of good, means the inflation rate goes down.
But the higher interest rate means also you can now make the target 10% return on your 1 million, without holding any #risky# Bitcoins.So demand for Bitcoins goes down, and therefore the Bitcoin price goes down because of lower demand.
To sum it up: Inflation lower interest rates drive Bitcoin up Higher interest rates drive Bitcoin down....
But there are of course other factors going into the Bitcoin price...... so this is just about inflation interest rates.....
In Europe the target inflation rate is 2 %, so over many years inflation will add up of course....