I too think the global recession fear is caused by these tariffs => it hits the broader market => the fear comes, eventually, to the crypto market too.

So, overall, we ourselves - shouldn't fear anything, only hodl and see through the storm eventually. No manipulation or event would be able to make us do otherwise.

Well that's part of how shitty they are when in terms of putting their selves on the limelight, but the fact is they don't have nothing to do with Bitcoin pump and dumps. Its just there are people still believing that this officials have ability to control the market while the fact is there's no one can control it and they are just there playing the minds of people.

Its limited supply and rising demands is the reason why Bitcoins pump and people should not link it on what word say by Trump or who they think famous since they are not there in the first place when Bitcoin is gaining popularity and they are just riding with it for their political gains. Those situation you mentioned like what China done with Bitcoin is good indicator that anything negative action they do will just create short term effect on Bitcoin. Also right now we see the market is recovering and I guess people already slowly moving on the issues created by Trump.

Going up and down between $74k and $84k is not exactly "pumping", it is just showing an undecided market that was artificially pushed down to $74k but couldn't remain there because it is undervalued but at the same time it can't go up because the panic sellers are still active.

The tariffs or better say The Tariff War is not pausing. Don't fall for the long list of countries, that list is long just because Trump as a delusional person who I like to call "emperor wannabe" likes to appear strong. He wants to say "Look, I'm so strong, I'm fighting the whole world". Most of the countries in the list were in there so that Trump could put some pressure on them so that they obey his various demands.

Otherwise only a handful of those tariffs mattered in that long list and none of them were paused.
For example the 47% tariffs on Madagascar that only exports $0.5 billion to US doesn't matter at all because it is small and most of what they export is not exactly strategic like clothing and vanilla!

But the 54% tariffs on China that exports over $400 billion to US is important. That is not only not paused but also increased to 125% now. Not just that, China is retaliating and is now introducing 104% reciprocal tariffs on imports from US.
That is where the tariff war is and that is not pausing.

Fair enough.

The other problem is that the demands they have of China (which weren't started by Trump) are unreasonable and nobody would ever accept them least of all China. They are basically complaining that because Chinese economy is growing, it is taking the market from US.
It would be like Kraken exchange created in 2011 carried out a DDoS attack on Coinbase exchange created in 2012 claiming that its creation and growth is taking their market and revenue so they'll attack them to force them to accept their demands and shrink so that Kraken can continue having higher revenue!

So his approach doesn't really matter, the result is the same. It ain't gonna work.

Bitcoin value comes from its limited supply and growing demand not from famous people or government leaders. Because it is decentralized no one person or group can control market. Market reacts to news but this is usually because traders are panicking to sell or buy. When governments take action like China did it only affects market for short time and then it bounces back. Famous people like Trump might get attention for talking about Bitcoin but their words do not have big impact. They mostly just try to benefit from Bitcoin popularity. Market ability to bounce back and adapt shows its strength and understanding what drives it is important.

It's a game of cards and each bluffs till another one is dried out.

That's basically what is happening, imo.

Exactly. Increasing production will help manage the price, something they did back in 2022 when they started the proxy war with Russia and oil was skyrocketing.

But it is worth mentioning that some analysts say that the main reason for the increased "drilling" is because it is believed (I don't know how correct it is) that in this decade, fossil fuels will lose their place as they'll be replaced. So they're trying to extract and sell as much of it as they can before it happens. Hence the increased production over the past decade (starting ~2012). Some even link it to the proxy war that US started with Russia that created a new market for US to sell its fossil fuels (ie. Europe which was previously buying oil/gas from Russia; now they are ordered to buy from US mainly).

Although I don't know how they can continue increasing production if the price were to tank like 2020 to $20-$30 since we saw back then the daily production that was almost 13 mill bpd tanked by about 4 million barrels. That would contract the policy of "sell as much oil as possible before it loses demand".

That's another thing. We keep talking about US but we forget to consider China. Cheaper energy will immensely benefit China as the "world's factory" which means it will negate a lot of the damage that US wants to inflict on Chinese economy by waging this war!

Another mistake US regime is making is not being capable of focusing on China alone. They are waging a war against the entire world. For example in the energy sector they have vast sanctions against oil rich countries like Iran, Russia and Venezuela. As US is isolated more every day, everyone else gets closer to each other. So China is now buying a lot of oil from these countries. Which means not only it will negate the US sanctions on these countries but it will negate the effects of US war with China on China.

It is more complicated than that and it can even have the opposite effect.
The countries where their government budget depend on selling oil will face increased inflation if the oil price dropped (lower gov. income > printing more money > inflation) but it won't kill it which means their economies and production capacity will suffer which then means they become more reliant on imports from China which would continue mass producing everything cheaper!
So in short term it actually helps Chinese economy.

In the long run, it still backfires for US plans because it forces those countries to move away from depending on oil sales as well.
For example take Iran. As a developed country Iran has relied heavily on oil sales for a long time. But over the past couple of years they are moving away to other stuff.
Like in short term we are seeing more EV imports from China (which helps Chinese economy) but simultaneously the Iranian automotive industry is moving toward domestic production and year by year that capacity is increasing. Owning one of the largest supplies of Lithium (main component of EV batteries) helps as well!
Things are like this in other technologies as well like the Green Hydrogen Fuel.

 Politicians only change their stance when they see votes or bags to be made. The fact that crypto has grown so much that even the old guard has to acknowledge it is the real win here. WAGMI regardless of who sits in the White House.

About 20 years ago when the US regime decided to wage a war against what they falsely call "Middle East" (the famous Bush order to "destroy" 7 countries in 5 years) and started carrying out terrorist attacks against civilians in 6 of those countries, they didn't expect it would take all their resources and they would end up wasting $12 trillion of American tax dollars with nothing to show for it.

Specially their funding, training and arming of terrorist groups including al-Qaeda which CIA used on September 2001 to attack Americans (as the United States Director of National Intelligence colonel Tulsi Gabbard confessed to the US congress a couple of months ago and also the declassified documents revealed about US regime's terrorist operations as part of Timber Sycamore ops proved) takes a LOT OF resources.

Obviously the world doesn't stand around while the US regime wastes America's resources. Everyone else moves ahead. China is only one of the countries that got ahead. This is why there won't be "one next empire of the world". The world is already moving to a multi-polar order.

He is actually one of the biggest warmongers who has taken the Oval Office. It's just that unlike others like Bush, he has taken the office at a time when US is at its weakest and is getting weaker every day. Meanwhile there aren't any weak countries left that they can invade!
Take the situation in the Red Sea for example. Trump started a war against Yemen and even carrying out terrorist attacks against civilians in the poorest Arab country could not get them what they wanted and not just that the Yemenis are retaliating hard against the US military for a war that Trump began and not a day goes by without US navy being bombed 2-3 times.

As for China and nuclear war, it is so unlikely that I'd say it is impossible because of mutual destruction. To put simply if they nuke China, China would nuke them back and there won't be any US and China left on the maps in the aftermath...