Yes, the charts do not match, but the patterns are similar. In the previous cycle, the price broke the previous ATH barrier, which is was 20k, and it decreased blown that,  in this cycle and before halving ATH was broken, which indicates because New ATH may seem different from the previous or we may see prices above 200k that will make -93%, -85%, -84% and -77% corrections above 60k by the end of 2026.

I'm going to bet that once bitcoin goes low enough that would make that chart look screwed(even just a bit remotely different), people would be mass selling BTC — only to see it bounce (as per usual) after a good while lmao. People tend to take huge bets off a single chart or a single metric.

Yeah and that 77% drop was only because Luna collapsed and then caused a string of other collapses. Drop might have only been like 55%-60% or so if not for that. When Luna collapsed the bottom so far had only been 55% down which was several months prior and the market at the time was only like 45% down.

If the industry can avoid some large ecosystem collapse like Mt Gox in 2014 or Luna + Crypto Lending industry + FTX in 2022, I think the bear market bottom will only be 50%-60% down, maybe even slightly less of a drop than that. So if peak is say $150k, maybe it bottoms at $60k-$80k, and probably only takes like 6 months to bottom instead of 12+ months. That'd be my guess.

If this bottom is much shallower, that'll lead to even shallower bear markets in the future too. Because some people try to time the market, sell in bull and buy back during bear. But given paying taxes on profits, and having to guess where the top and bottom will be and very likely not hitting real close to either, if the difference between top and bottom are no longer extreme like 70-80%, it makes muuuuuch less sense to try to trade the market cycle. So even a bit shallower bear markets should lead to more long term holding, which leads to even shallower bear markets. It wouldn't surprise me if by next decade these extreme swing market cycles are largely gone. Especially since the halvings themselves are already much less significant since well over 90% of the supply is already out. Also the ETFs may possibly help blunt bear markets as well since all sorts of funds are going to be adding the bitcoin ETFs and so people are going to be buying the ETFs indirectly through lots of other Wall St funds regardless of whether bitcoin is in bull mode or bear mode.

I think that breaking ATH before halving is a response to a 20K break in the previous down side of that cycle, and if this happens, we will be between 60k to 70k for the next four months.

I think the opposite is what happened, as the chaos caused by FTX and Luna was the reason that the upward trend was broken and that ATH was 69k instead of ~80k ~100k, which gives a correction by 93%, -85%, -84% to ~20k

Huh??

Are you living a life where time goes backwards??? haha

Those things happened during the bear market, many months after the ATH. ATH was in 2021. Luna, crypto lenders, FTX were from Spring 2022 to Fall 2022. Bear market was already 6 months in by the time that stuff started happening. But I like the absurdist science fiction approach haha, where events in the future causes results in the past. It'd be funny to write a history book like that trying to explain past events based on future events.  Like, because fiat money collapses later in the 21st century that's WHY Satoshi created Bitcoin, because he lives in an opposite time flow from the rest of the universe and so experiences time backwards, and he brought future computer science ideas to create Bitcoin in the past to give humanity an escape from the fiat monetary collapse he had already experienced in the future. I kinda love it haha

Interesting thing to note that during the latest bear market the price went below the level of the ATH of the previous cycle when in dipped below $20k. This happened for the first time and it could be interpreted as a dangerous signal, but now we have reaching ATH level before the halvening, which also happened for the first time and is a positive signal.

The moral here is that Bitcoin is still quite unpredictable and its patterns are broken all the time.

I'll start by saying that I think a logarithmic scale is less honest and less informative than a linear scale, so the chart the op shared is not the kind of chart I'd use when thinking about the price.
But I agree that Bitcoin is losing less value over time during the bear markets. Another thing I like to look at is the growth of the bottom price. For instance, after $1.1k in 2013, the bottom was $172; after $20k in 2017, the bottom was $3200; while after $67k it was over $15k. We can see how much the bottom is getting higher after each bull market, which shows more confidence in Bitcoin even during its worst times.

I know Black Rock and Bitcoin Spot ETF success mean a lot for Bitcoin market but things are happening actually unpredictable too. It is too fast if we see after Gold Spot ETFs, it takes many months to start rising in price. Bitcoin is different, better than gold, and moves up faster than gold.

I agree for sure.

Two black swan events in 2022 caused the price fell down a lot like described above. Without these black swan events, Bitcoin would have not fallen below $20,000.

By the way, let me share one more graphics from CryptoQuant, that can be helpful for newbies who will surely be fearful with corrections along a bull run.

The All time Average Drawdown in bull markets is -15%.

That's relatable to my thoughts as this time I don't see the pattern repeating because we have had BTC ATH before the halving which was not the case in previous halving cycles. This year looks bit different but we cannot rule out correction phase as some of us are saying there won't be corrections or very little correction but we cannot rule anything on that as only time will tell us about it.

Yeah right now we are on a similar path as those in the past during the halving period. Generally we go up exponentially and this time we've been rallying before the halving which is fairly new, especially since we broke the ATH. Halving will be most likely on April 20 or around that day.

Currenly we got tons of money entering crypto. We had $2B in tether print yesterday, every stock trading session we got +$500M in new flows, we also got Saylor which bought $800M worth of BTC at like $60K. Most likely as MSTR keeps rallying he will keep issuing those convertibles notes and will keep buying them and the price of the stock will rally and he will sell more and buy more bitcoin.

Doesnt look like the train is stopping anytime soon.