I am working to get my bitcoin off of exchanges and into cold storage but I had a question regarding transaction prices. As more adopt Bitcoin, transaction prices are going to increase as there is more demand for blockspace. Is there any documentation or research into what transaction fees may look like in a world where Bitcoin is more widely accepted? I am worried that from an individual level the blockspace may become so valuable that moving Bitcoin on and off a personal cold wallet may be unfeasibly costly for the average user.

My understanding is at the current moment while it is still becoming adopted, the value of the Bitcoin held should scale with the transaction costs. I am more wondering about long term viability of personal cold wallets, and how the different layer 2+ scaling projects (lightning, Fedimint, etc.) as well as custodial services may play into the long-run transaction costs. Anyone with knowledge or resources they could point me to would be greatly appreciated!

This is my concern about a cold wallet. What is the end goal of Bitcoin? Global reserve currency (digital gold), or peer to peer cash? I am not sure both can be attainable in its current design ( am also a noob and just trying to understand more). If it is a cash system like it has existed in the early days, cold wallets for personal use makes sense. But if Bitcoin continues to grow it and is adopted by more, it may become a global reserve currency due to its finite supply. Under this global reserve currency assumption, bitcoin would be backing every bank, who would be throwing around huge transactions and willing to pay large transaction fees. This would crowd out individuals who want to use cold wallets other than those who hold a large sum of bitcoin, as they would have to pay bank level fees to move around Bitcoin which for most would not be economically feasible. In this scenario, the blockchain would become the source of truth of transactions, lightning would be used by banks for settlements, and you would need a secondary currency backed by bitcoin (US dollar, mint, other crypto, third layer solution, etc.) and make personal cold storage options (for Bitcoin specifically) unfeasible for most.

 Am I missing a key component of this train of thought? In this scenario, custodians become almost necessary due to the amount of transactions needed if everyone used their own personal cold wallet. Is this the natural progression of Bitcoin, or are there developmental efforts to make cold wallets feasible for all in the future as the adoption of Bitcoin continues?

As more adopt Bitcoin, transaction prices are going to increase as there is more demand for blockspace. Is there any documentation or research into what transaction fees may look like in a world where Bitcoin is more widely accepted?

I am worried that from an individual level the blockspace may become so valuable that moving Bitcoin on and off a personal cold wallet may be unfeasibly costly for the average user.

As far as I know there’s no research or data that has been analyzed to come up with an accurate estimation of transaction prices. With bitcoin’s price being volatile, the same goes for transaction prices. We can’t determine just how huge can the mass acceptance be and how much it can impact transaction fees. I am hoping that by then it could have been resolved by a much more efficient technology.

I am working to get my bitcoin off of exchanges and into cold storage but I had a question regarding transaction prices. As more adopt Bitcoin, transaction prices are going to increase as there is more demand for blockspace. Is there any documentation or research into what transaction fees may look like in a world where Bitcoin is more widely accepted? I am worried that from an individual level the blockspace may become so valuable that moving Bitcoin on and off a personal cold wallet may be unfeasibly costly for the average user.

None. I believe during the very early days of Bitcoin, no one wanted to talk that this might be a problem.
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If the price of a good or a service is too high, then naturally the demand for that good or service will go down.

The problem is that those big institutional investors could afford to pay ridiculous transactions fees. This could scare away the small BTC investors. I don't know about any potential solutions of this problem, since I'm not a Bitcoin Core developer.