First, some context: I am in no way a Bitcoin maximalist I think there's some value outside of Bitcoin, but ultimately BTC is my 'main' crypto holding and every profit I make with altcoins has always been exchanged back into BTC.
In crypto bull markets, the common opinion is that in a full-blown bull market, pretty much everything goes up unison. This is based on crypto's general performance back in the last bull market of 2017.
The thing is, people seem to expect the same thing in this cycle. Do I think it will be the same whereas pretty much everything goes up? I don't think so. Capital
and attention are too spread out and too diluted.
Compared to 2017 as if we didn't have so many coins/tokens already back then, we have
far more coins and tokens now; we're talking huge multiples more coins/tokens. Money will be too spread out this cycle that price pumps will likely be heavily suppressed.
I and a lot of people here frequently say that BTC is the better pick for the masses(which has always been true), but regardless, I'm usually only like 10% BTC overall most of the time because I like risk and I have been historically successful with picking altcoins. But this cycle? I have far fewer altcoin holdings and am more concentrated on BTC as the r/r has gotten worse with altcoins, and I think a lot of people will be disappointed regardless if we generally continue to go up or not.
Will there still be altcoins that will achieve huge multiples? There will
always be such altcoins.
Will I be right? Maybe, maybe not. Time will tell.
EDIT 1:
Update: Quite lucky with the timing. I started the first batch of my shorts(L2s) on the 28th of May, while at the same time having an equal amount of longs with majors(BTC/ETH/SOL, mostly BTC. only have a smaller amount of ETH and SOL as a bet on the ETFs).
As of today, the L2s are down bigly while the majors are just down slightly(except for SOL). Up quite a good amount; will continue holding my position.
EDIT 2:
Update: so far so good as the trade is going well. Long majors(+TON), short L2s, and a few L1s that are pretty dead in terms of activity.
Currently up 200% ish. Will my trade continue to go well? Maybe, maybe not. Let's see.
List is sorted by position size.
Obviously, red = short, green = long.
