I really appreciate that you shared this critical view with us. What you say makes a lot of sense, and linked to the other argument about halvings it's truly worrying. But if there is such a real risk in the mid term (8 years from now) what do you think could be the reason behind BlackRock and other funds are are accumulating so aggressively?
The situation is really worrying as this mining companies are purely driven by profits and they have professional advisors who can show them they can earn twice as much on different project.
On the scale they operate even couple percents would be worth switching but due to high volatility the profitability of mining must be much greater for them to switch from one project to another and the halvings make this decision much simpler - unless the market cap will be able to multiply in value after each halving in which I don't believe at this trillion+ levels.
As for BlackRock and other sharks, they just want to multiply their FIAT - they don't have any love for cryptocurrencies but will say otherwise to pump the price up.
They will have no second thought to cash it out after getting their target or seeing that there might be some unrecoverable trouble.
Again, they are not HODL'ers, they are not Bitcoin lovers, they are businessman who want to multiply their stack of FIAT and they have a lot of professional advisors. Nothing else.
And, on the other hand, what more profitable projects do you think miners would switch to?
Ethereum was a big contender but they switched to PoS.
Monero is feared due to their past of changing PoW to fight off ASIC's but maybe they will be interested in CPU mining - who knows.
Edit: it is already happening:
https://cryptonews.com/news/bitcoin-miner-profitability-halving.htm"Marathon Digital announced on Thursday that it has decentralized its mining efforts towards mining Kaspa, an alternative proof-of-work cryptocurrency network from which the firm has gained $16 million since September."
All the other projects are noise but I could be wrong and they can view it differently.