Today's game is a good example of how a change in the line could represent an educated picking opportunity.

In a few hours we have the Cowboys at the Lions, where Lions are -3.5 favorites. The line opened at -6 but slowly drifted down to -3.5 where it is now, as more money has come in on the Cowboys over the last few days.

Meanwhile Sleeper has the line at -5.5 Lions, which doesn't reflect current odds and the new money on the Cowboys. So in theory taking Dallas at +5.5 would be an educated pick because it is capitalizing on the margin of difference between the old odds and the new odds. This of course works better the bigger the difference is. But even just a 2-point difference might be enough to change the outcome of a bet from a loss to a win.

*this is not financial advice

Contrary to what I was expecting, the Lions were the better team all night. The Cowboys were covering the spread for about 3 minutes in the 4th quarter when they almost caught back up and were down by 3 points, but then the Lions ran away with it again shortly thereafter. Teaches me to root for the Cowboys. That's what I get for doing something I never do. Just goes to show that anything can happen on Any Given Sunday.

Well, this week 14 I have an 8-5 record  which I think is pretty good. I hope I can get another correct pick in today's game. It seems impossible to catch the top 3, so I'd only be able to fight for a top 4-5 finish. There are only a few weeks left and there's no room for error.

I still think you have a chance to fight for the top spot, but it depends on the guys at the top having bad weeks with their picks. They've been very good so far. I hope the guys at the top stumble in week 15 so I can try to close the gap, as long as I make most of the right picks. Good luck to you too.

Regarding today's game, its one where I just have to go with the mismatch between the Sleeper odds (Atlanta @ +6.5) and the latest odds (Atlanta @ +5.5). Bookies are currently giving a whole extra point or point and a half to the Falcons, so I just have to go with them. Also, the Buccaneers lost at home to one of the worst teams in the league last week.

There's a good chance the Bucs will still win but maybe not by more than 6 points.

Tomorrow we get

 - Houston for -9.5, which is a bargain b/c the odds are currently -10.5
 - Jacksonville for -11.5, an incredible bargain compared to -13.5, even though 11.5 already seems high
 - Kansas City for -4.5, a whole point less than the current -5.5

All 3 teams need a win for the playoffs more than their opponent, another good reason to go with them, IMHO. As a matter of fact, most (but not all) favorites need a win more than their opponents.

Commanders vs. Giants is a total tossup. Its the Shit Bowl, to decide who gets a higher draft pick next year.

nutildah you are on fire 😁 You have an 8 point gap to second place and a 13 point gap to 3rd place. damn that is impressive 😁 And there are only 3 rounds left and I feel like we've just started the season even though I haven't been following along😂

Yup he definitely knows his stuff for sure especially how wild this season is, they brought out a 44 year old man out of retirement to play a game and almost won yesterday
Now if that's not insane I don't know what to tell you, and the list goes on but congrats to him on a job looks like well done.

Today's game feels like a layup for the Steelers. The only drawback is the line is actually -3 and not -3.5. But I have a feeling that the Steelers will easily cover because Tua sucks playing cold weather. We'll see.