Or perhaps we're not in the middle of the S-curve, yet. Wishful thinking. 

100x in purchasing power? Maybe highly unlikely. But, 100x in dollar terms? Inevitable. As long as there is no bottom for the USD, there is no ceiling for Bitcoin. 100 trillion USD market cap isn't so much of a fantasy for the world's  most preferred asset.

I'll calculate it.

5,200/98 = 53
98/7.5 = 13

53/13 = 4

This mean, in order to know the scale in the current super cycle we need to divide the last super cycle scale with 4.

7.5/4 = 1.875

Bitcoin price at the moment is $62,000 x 1.875, so we got $116,250 which is the highest price of Bitcoin in the current super cycle.

It's still too early to tell for sure. You're right, this cycle has been flatter than the previous ones so far. But remember, we're barely halfway through the first quarter. There is still plenty of time.

Although we are all saying that not all future events indicates future results but I will say I actually believe we will re live this same cycle again. If there is anything then this calculations actually show it is possible. The other cycles had a far better movement because of the volatility, bitcoin is losing its volatility rate as the year and its adoption grows, although the $116k is below my predictions but is certainly not out of line. My prediction is bitcoin to have &120k to $140k (1.875x current ATH) as the highest price in this current bull run. Economic constrains could set in but they won’t be that sever to stop a six figure price in bitcoin next year

I wouldn't say it's not significant anymore; it's just lower compared to the past pumps that the rest of the cycles had. Realistically speaking a 10x increase is around 600k ish from this point, I definitely don't think we'd be seeing such a price point for the next few years, let alone the next few months. Can still smell 100k for next year at least though.

The cycle still definitely applies though (or can still be used as a reference). Just as you've said, it just looks like it doesn't because of how weak it is compared to past cycles.

Why not? I think a 100x increase is possible even before that.

Heres my math: Assuming Bitcoin doubles in price every four-year cycle (which is a conservative estimate imho), it would take about seven cycles to go from $60,000 to $6,000,000 (a 100x increase). Thats less than 28 years.

Of course, this is just a guess. But Bitcoin is still pretty new, and it has a lot of room to grow. Especially in developing countries, which generally have the large population.

I don't think the price doubles every 4 years for the next halvings. I think we get to a point, like $500k when the price doubling to $1 million in the next four years is not feasible, I'll speculate that it stops doubling in value before that price even.

It's important I point out that this are just predictions and the market will act however it wants.

I encourage everybody to check on the Bitcoin Cycles website, as an alternative to the assumptions that cycles start at an halving, the alternative view that cycles start at a top:


Source: Bitcoin Cycles Comparison

(Open the image separately to view it in more detail.)

This chart looks surprisingly much better for this year: The cycle is actually the second best after the 2011-2015 cycle! [1]

This is because of two reasons:

- The fall from 2021's top was slightly less pronounced than the previous ones (76% instead of >81%)
- The recovery was faster, the 2021 ATH at 69000 was reached only 1 year and 4 months after the 2022 bottom. In previous cycles, this milestone was hit significantly later (generally about 2 years after the previous bottom). The 2013 top of $1000 was only reached in early 2017 again (2 years after the early 2015 bottom), and the 2017 top of $20000 was only reached in late 2020 (also 2 years after the late-2018 bottom).

In addition, as @coolcoinz also wrote, it is expected that the cycles get "flatter" due to falling volatility/increasing liquidity.

I also would like to warn to interpret too many regularities out of these "cycles". Many still think of 4-year cycles, but there were only two 4-year cycles (2013-17 and 2017-21, also measured "from top to top").

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[1] Small remark: the Bitcoin Cycles website considers 2011-2015 one cycle, which in my opinion is wrong, 2011-13 and 2013-17 are imo two different cycles, and I also don't understand why the second cycle according to the website ends in 2015 - perhaps because it's exactly 4 years away?  

I mean it makes sense when we are at this point where bitcoin has grown a lot compared to before. Of course there is more significant growth back then when the price is still low. Basically you can see the movement so much when it came from 0 to 100. While now it may be difficult to reach the same growth as it did back then. This is not to say that it will not grow anymore but we should not be expecting for it to grow as much as it did back then in one cycle only. We can probably expect bitcoin to stabilize a little more than its previous years because of just how big its value is currently.