There is an old saying "never short a dull market"
We are basically here, in a very dull market right now.

For those who like, there are many technical indicators why dull markets with low volume and volatility are usually welcome and they indicate good buying opportunities

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-never-short-a-dull-market-is-pretty-good-advice-when-it-comes-to-stocks-11623174750

You need to gauge if you can hold your investments in short or long-term. Because you may end up losing some if you are in a tight position and you need to sell off some of your coins below your buying price. Don't expect that you will always have the profit at anytime because the market movement is very unpredictable.


If your financials are good and you truly believe on this market, why not? But if you still have qualms and half-hearted of investing in this type of market, then, don't force yourself. Would only blame yourself if your plans go sideways. It is always best to cover all angles before investing in any asset so you won't be in tight position if you need to cash out your asset.

although we are approaching 2025.. we are not quite there yet. be patient. FOMO season of the ATH is not yet upon us... but.. while the price is still low compared to its potential, you might aswell top up a few extra coin.

even if the minimalist of new ATH is $78k.... compared to this weeks $65k average, thats still a 20% growth for a year, better than any stock/share/bank account interest would offer

For me, the relatively low volatility of the 2023/2024 bull market is a positive sign, not something to worry about. Above all the intermediate crashes were mostly light (with the exception of the Nikkei crash in August), losses were mostly of 25% or less and recovery was quite fast, so those who didn't panic weren't affected at all probably.

I believe if Bitcoin grew only half the rate it grows currently long term (currently the long term trend is at slightly over 45 %/year, so we'd be talking about 20-25%/year), but with also half the likelihood of crashes, then more (financially) conservative people would invest in it. And they would also be more likely to invest in bearish phases, which could flatten volatility even more.

Imagine even the "cyclic" bear markets would only take away at most 35 %-40 % of the value (half of the current 75-80 % crashes). It would then seriously compete with several other assets people often use to diversify.

We're not there, of course. And thus I believe you're right, there are still several FOMO phases ahead. But in a couple of cycles more (late 20s, early 30s perhaps) we'd reached that point, and imo it would be great.

Volatility could of course grow in 2025 again, and we'd would have to re-check if the bull market is still the "least volatile".

Hopefully it’s the calm before the storm. This year the market has had to absorb a lot of selling, starting with GBTC unwinding due to their high etf fees. They have had to sell hundreds of thousands of coins. We’ve also seen Gox repayments so more market sell pressure. I am confident 2025 will be very bullish.

Recently, large amounts of money have been entering Bitcoin ETF's one after another.
The calm before the storm may have been broken.
The Chinese government's large amounts of fiat money entering the market also seemed to have brought some movement, but I'm not sure about that. It may be a matter of time before we see a new ATH.

I agree that this is a good sign but we still shouldn't be confident enough I think that we'll tackle that later on once the bull market is done. We're probably halfway there to the possible peak that we're all waiting for. I'd say that the market is calmer this time because we've just passed through the ghost month but it won't be surprising when something happens and we'd see some unexpected turns and skyrocketing just like what's happening now. I remember discussions in the past that volatility will surely be lower in the future but I guess this isn't yet the moment.

To be honest, this time it is them that makes more noise, and whatever news comes from them on this bull run looks moving and more impactful to the market.

I agree with what is being said that the market is calm for now, but it would be good if there was some good news to break the calm. Most people who invest in Bitcoin know what it means to wait and have been waiting for a long time. Some have added to their portfolios while waiting, while others have held on to their investments in the face of negative news. I think we are approaching the time that Bitcoin investors have been waiting for.

I cannot predict how active the bull season will be, but I do think there will be opportunities for those who can wait to achieve their goals.

Maybe that's because we are not yet in a bitcoin-style bull market which is why the volatility appears to be less compared to the previous bull markets we have experienced.

Looking at the charts for the entire 2024, we only see a bigger than usual sideways market where price neither goes below $50k nor does it go above $70k and yet it keeps on going up and down inside this range (about 4 drops and 4 rises).

This is why I don't consider this a bull market yet. Price has to break above $70k first and continue rising for this to be considered a bull market. By then we can give an opinion on whether the volatility is the same as before or not.

We would have a volatile year if there wasn't Bitcoin ETF approval this year. At the moment, political situation doesn't look well in the world, this might be the reason why prices are so stable because people don't risk right now. We need a small help with the price and once it starts going up, it won't stop for months.
By the way, it stands strong right now. I believe it's not going down to 50K, so I'm buying and buying.

A short position is always very risky. The only moment when it's good is if you manage to guess when the bubble will bust and then immediately open a short position but we are very far from the moment right now because the major bull run hasn't even started.