Bitcoin is an asset. And every asset is pretty much regulated, so yes, in the future there will probably be more regulation, especially since it'll be used for foreign trade.
For me, this portends more and more regulation around Bitcoin and other digital currencies--and the era where criminals can successfully use these products coming to an end.
What "criminals"? Simply those using crypto for illegal transactions or SBF-like schemes? The former are not discouraged to engage in illegal activities because of regulations, so they will probably not have any problem in the future either.
I tried to qualify this, but maybe I can try to find a better word next time.
What I meant by "criminals" is, "those whom are seeking to evade laws/law enforcement in their country or some other country". Clearly there are many "criminals" in the world who are fighting oppressive governments and/or are subjected to unjust or immoral laws, and being a "criminal" in that context is perfectly moral and justified. On the other end of the scale there are criminals who are stealing things from people, harming people, etc. Somewhere in the middle are those evading taxes.
As to the old (and boy do I mean
old), "since laws won't completely stop crime then we shouldn't have laws because it's pointless" argument, well, it's just nonsense. By this logic we should make murder and rape legal since sometimes those offenders get away with it. You only need a few milliseconds of thinking about it before you understand how this simply wouldn't work and no human civilization in history has ever existed without some kind of set of laws.
Your example here, of course, was a pretty poor one because SBF is...
in prison right now. As are thousands of others who have ripped off crypto investors. Sure, there are thousands who still roam free, and probably thousands who get away with it, but it's simply nonsense to say that laws have no affect on human behavior because they obviously do.
In the case of Bitcoin itself, if the US made Bitcoin officially illegal to hold, then 97% of today's holders would dump it. It's as simple as that. Most people don't want to break the law--even if it's a bad law. This goes doubly true if there are perfectly legal alternative products available. There is virtually no market for illegal, non-USDA-approved meat in the USA. Why? Because you can go to any grocery store and by the legal stuff and it does the exact same thing for you.
If the US made Bitcoin illegal and left other digital currencies legal (that kicked up profits to Trump for instance), then Bitcoin would lose 97% of its investors in a few hours, and the legal alternatives would be 1000x more valuable than Bitcoin.
I think a lot of people here are misunderstanding my OP: I should have written "MORE regulated". Bitcoin is already regulated in thousands of ways in most countries, especially the US where most of the holders are.
If you are talking about exchanges or ETFs, those are different things. ETFs shouldn't even be in the equation because they are something else, and investing in an ETF is not like buying and holding Bitcoin in a non-custodial wallet. ETFs are regulated, and so are centralized exchanges, but Bitcoin itself isn't, and it can't be.
I'm talking about that and the many other ways people buy, spend and sell Bitcoin and other digital currencies. All of this activity is regulated by governments in all kinds of ways already, and my theory here is that there will be even more over time.
[...]
and let me remind you that Bitcoin that are bought from decentralized exchanges and kept in non-custodial wallets cannot be regulated. The authorities or the government can't do anything about them, which is the beauty of this technology and why it's so unique.
Sure they could: a country can make it a crime to use one of these facilities. It's like saying that a government "can't do anything about" owning a pipe bomb because it's theoretically possible for one to obtain or build one regardless of the laws. Yes, this is true, but the law prevents at least 99.9% of people from doing so because if they are caught they would go to prison. And again, this goes doubly true if there are alternative products that accomplish the same thing and are perfectly legal.
I get that you all want to feel like the US (and other major) governments are powerless to stop you from doing whatever you feel like doing at any given moment, but... it's time to grow up

.