So basically what you are saying in other words is that if bitcoin dips to very great extent using the current price down to somewhere around $50k or below and the dollar rate per naira is at N1700 plus one shouldn't buy because he or she will be at loss in naira (any unstable economy currency)? It sure seems to me that's what you postulate?
Even you buy the dip and it is a long term investment like 10 to 15 years the person will still at the losing side of the local exchange rate reduce. In bitcoin investment you don't think only the profit but what will happen if the exchange declined below your expectation. Let me give some examples. As It was said in the Op, right now the local exchange rate is $1 to N1,550 amd you should know that bitcoin is calculated with dollar and not with naira so if dollar fall it affects Bitcoin investors because when you sell it will not come out as expected. If I have 0.08 BTC and $1 is N1,550 so if you sell it now it will come out as correct BTC price 1btc to $96,689.40 X the fraction of BTC you have as 0.08 BTC equal to $7,737.68 X N1,550 Naira. And what you will receive as local currency is N11,993,404 (96,689.40 X 0.08 =$7,737.68. then $7,737.68 X N1,550 = N11,993,404).
But in ten years time when the government has been changed and the price of dollar has be devalued to $1 = N500 and you still have the 0.08 BTC amd Bitcoin price is probably $250,586.60, the amount you will get from dollar from the 0.08 BTC is $20,046.928 and if the $/NGN is N500 your final output will be N10,023,464 as your investment outcome for the 10 years. Here I checked it from $/NGN. Bitcoin will rise but local currency with dollar exchange rate will affect you. So always have an alternative thinking in investment. If this happens what should be the next steps. Those are things to think before investing.
I believe the person really losses if the money was left in USD.
During that value 1700+, the value of goods were expensive
You are not going to complain about purchasing a bag of rice then right?
Yeah understanding local currency performance is good
But if a person is too fixated, we see a scenario where they are only waiting for a dip and miss out on accumulating.
Even if the money is in BTC, if dollar fall drastically, the person will still lose unless dollar rise or stable at the price you bought and Bitcoin rise then you make good profit. But we have to calculate the four corners of the investment.
Don't base your Bitcoin aspirations on your local currency.
I agree with what you mentioned, you are absolutely right here, I also do not agree to base bitcoin on our local currency because they are very different, it is like a centralized vs decentralized battle.
That is why even if the price of fiat in a country is falling, when we see an opportunity for the price of bitcoin to fall and you have something to buy if you believe in BTC,
it is good to take advantage of the opportunity to save it, that's all, this is if you are an enthusiastic believer in Bitcoin.
You are not using Bitcoin to buy things in you country and definitely you must convert it or sell it back to your local currency for spending then you will know how much came out from your local currency if the price of $/your local currency is very low. It is not a big assertion here but just understand my view point in the market.
And those who invested at the time of $1 to NGN1,700+ is at the losing side because currently the exchange rate with the US dollar to the NGN Naira is $1 to N1,550 and it is coming down weekly so those who invested in 2024 will be at the losing side unless the dollar rise again. That is the risk.
I dont think it they will be in loss except if you just did the calculations base on the fiat currencies but having them related to the asset they bought, in this case bitcoin they would be in profit considering how the market has grown since then. $1 getting to N1,700 was around the period where bitcoin it self wasnt upto the six figure we have at the moment which actually makes for the dollar drop.
As for this economically you arent actually losing when youre correlating the local fiat currency to the international market currency because at the end of the day the products are mostly paired with the international currency which means the price of the product relatively on pair and moves base on how the international currency moves
If someone invested at the time when the $/your local currency exchange is high and in 10 years time the exchange rate is very low. Are you losing or gaining? Calculate well.
Bitcoin to Naira
1 Bitcoin = 145,139,045.20 Naira
Bitcoin to USD to Naira
1 Bitcoin = 96,766.03 USD
1 USD = 1,502.10 Naira
96,766.03 x 1,502.10 = 145,352,253.663 Naira
The results is almost same, if we include the fees, I'm sure Bitcoin to Naira is more higher than Bitcoin to USD to Naira.
So what does this mean? it means there's no point to compare Bitcoin to USD to local currency.
I am not making any comparison between Bitcoin and fiat but I am trying to say that if the US dollar with a local currency exchange reduced in the future, it will affect the investors. Please you can read the first paragraph of this comment. Your calculation is base on the current price but in the future or 10 to 15 years to come when the local exchange is $1 to N500 or below 1 BTC to Naira will definitely reduce so that is my point.
In conclusion it is only few understand my point but others are only talking about the current price and local currency exchange but my assertion is the future of those countries that the $/local currency change when new government takes over power. Right now the new government in Nigeria devalued the country currency for US dollar but another government will come and might decide to make the local currency strong and for that it will affect those who are investing in bitcoin because we are buying as a higher rate and if the time to sell it is a lower exchange rate then we are at the losing side.