Bitcoin going to 3k only possible when there's whale dumping their big amount of bitcoin into exchange's market where it's illiquid, possibly in smaller exchanges.
How can they sell large amounts of bitcoin on small and illiquid exchanges? They will never be able to sell their bitcoins nor can they cause the price of bitcoin to drop just because they used an illiquid exchange to sell their bitcoins.
Also, no matter which whale sold bitcoin, whether it was Blackrock or Strategy, it never caused the price to drop that much. For bitcoin to drop to $3k, we need to have something as terrible as a black swan (world war, blockchain vulnerability...) not just a massive sell-off by whales, no whale can have such a big impact on the market.
But agreed, not possible with ETF and strategic reserve, moreover, $3k is like really small money to get bitcoin, there would be thousands of people buying BTC in bulk if price hits that low and it may easily recover back to $30k - $40k.
Basically a discount like this not gonna be happening. too much people with money ready to bag bitcoin.
I don't think that will happen either but if it does, it means no one wants to buy BTC anymore and that's why the price dropped so much. So it would be naive to think that if the price drops to $3k there will be a lot of buyers. No, they will also run away like those who are dumping and cause the price to drop.