I remember seeing "money as a system of control" by Andreas once and then watching it again after years, I really got it the second time
some things take time to understand

in the beggining I thought bitcoin wouldn't reach gold's market cap
not I'm sure it will some day
it's crazy that we are still early after all this years.

Nobody expected that bitcoin will last for long term and change some investors life that leave there coins since they lunch it, and they leave it thing when the price increases. When they lunch bitcoin I didn't expect the coin will still be alive by now, and then I don't know anything about crypto by then, is when I join this forum I get enough knowledge about bitcoin. Since have get knowledge I don't want to miss opportunities that comes, because we really miss all the Benefit of bitcoin by then. If have invested since 2016 that have start to get experience better about online, I should have become wealth now. Many people that believe on bitcoin are the people that get the huge profit because when the price was low they still have the faith and beleave that the coin will raise and they achieved there dreams. If everyone knows that bitcoin will raise deep when they lunch it. am sure everyone should have become rich, because everybody most try to invest on the coin, is only the patience investors that really get the opportunity of getting huge profit on the coins. This time we will definitely be among the winners that will benefit from bitcoin when the price increases deeply.

Wasn't THAT early but was around between 10 and 20k. My faith? Just the fact that it jumped up to thousands back on its first bull run. I also initially tried trading with it which lead to some pretty bad losses lol. Still doesn't mean that I lost hope with it, I just didn't trust myself to be able to do trading right. After that I did some self reflecting and studying on Bitcoin itself (since I didn't really know jack, I just knew it seemed like a good investment), and well, the model itself plus how the market was reacting just made me trust it.

If I believed I would've been a billionaire right now, cause I would've bought lol.

I first saw Bitcoin as a digital technology, and it is fun to know about, nothing too serious as of money making but a new technology that is emanating from the internet, as at then the government has not really given it a good look even from the start. I first heard or read articles related to Bitcoin or crypto currencies here in this forum from late 2009. When I realized that Bitcoin and crypto currencies are decentralized and are not welcomed or accepted by the government as it is not regulated by the government, and also when I knew it was a form of currency, I developed more interest, as it is free to anyone who can make use of it and free for all.

When its price got crossed $10k and reached its first mind blowing ATH of $19k, that was when I had a believe that some day, it will hit this $100k and which it has. Though, then as a newbie to the market movement, I lost 99.9% of all my crypto holdings as the market crashed, since then, I have not really been active here in the forum.

It is common for people to see Bitcoin OGs as lucky or fortunate. But I don't see them as being fortunate. For someone to keep his coin for eight years and above, it show bravery and faith in Bitcoin. This set of uncommon individuals believed in a strange currency or asset when most people saw it as worthless. Some people even saw them as lunatics because they believed in the unbelievable. I have not been around Bitcoin for a long time but I have confidence that the price will keep going high.

Another man predicted Bitcoin price will rise to $1M in next 90 days in 2023.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brandonkochkodin/2023/05/02/balaji-srinivasan-concedes-bet-that-bitcoin-will-reach-1-million-in-90-days/

I even didn't know that man but many people felt exciting with this prediction. They didn't imagine that flip Bitcoin price hits $1M within 90 days, the world would be in an apocalypse or similar severe future when many traditional things destroyed like nuclear war, super hyper inflation globally and $1M will not have big value because of $ plummet of purchasing power.

McAfee and other people can make arbitrary and funny predictions that can harm your portfolio if they can not control their emotion and action.

I think many of us know the "rainbow charts" with decreasing highs. They can't predict the exact high of course, but approximately can tell us a tendency, based on the decreasing volatility.

If we take the cycle highs and cycle lows until now, we get the following picture:

- 2011-2013: High 1150, Low 2. (57000% growth high from low)
- 2015-2017: High 19500, Low 135 (13000% high -> low, 1500% high-previous high, 6500% low- previous low)
- 2018-2021: High 69000, Low 3000 (2200% high -> low, 250% high-previous high, 2100% low-previous low)
- 2022-2025: High ?, Low 15500 (400% low-previous low)

We see that all growth percentages decrease at least by 66% between cycles, most of the time 75% and more.

This means for the 2022-25 cycle, even if we see another ATH, it's likely to be below ca. 130000$ according to that tendency, which would be a 85% growth from the previous high of 69000 (close to 250% * 0.3333... according to the - 66% rule).

The next cycle could bring us to ~170000$.

We can now continue this game but it would converge below 250000$ as we can easily see.

How can we reach 500,000$, 600,000$ or even a million? Well there are two possibilities:

- a disruptive bull run which breaks the tendency and achieves a growth rate like in previous bull runs. This could indeed, as you already suggested, happen if Bitcoin is considered a real alternative to gold. Or with some other form of real mass adoption outside of short term speculation.
- a USD hyperinflation. This would not make much of a difference for Bitcoin hodlers though, but at least it would allow them to preserve the value. I consider this highly unlikely though.

In my opinion it's likely we will see such a disruptive bull run eventually. But remember this would only take us out of the curve which converges at $250k. So it's not sure if it will reach $500k or even a million. Just my 2 cents.

I came to know about cryptocurrency and Bitcoin in general in 2020 during the era of Forsage, which initially was a smart contract decentralized finance launched on the Ethereum Blockchain in a form of a pyramid scheme which needed a certain number of referrals before one can be upgraded into the next level. And that was how I initially got introduced by one of my female friend into crypto, and when I loved the idea I made my own research and got to know about Bitcoin and the rest altcoins, and made bought my first Bitcoin on Luno platform, of which since then, I thought it was the best decision I ever made, because I knew it's value was going to skyrocket, but never thought it could skyrocket to $100k so fast, of which I still appreciate.

at first I used to say that 1 BTC would be enough to retire, now i think 0.1 BTC is already enough to have a simple life, way more than most, not impressive for those who are into the money business, but still a lot (you can retire with 100k in several places of the world if you live an easy life, but won't go in detail on that... retiring is boring anyways)

the big thing is, when do you think 1 million per BTC happens? 2037?

I am not a Bitcoin OG because of the time that I get to know about bitcoin, it was at that time become an already big project and upto three cycles already happened at that time. Even if I would have had my reservations on it when I first heard about it earlier, to have performed two cycles successfully and always the price better than the previous, it calls for a conviction to believe in the project and to become a full blown out project in the future.


I would say I was late to bitcoin but having that narrative in mind will never allow you to invest into it somehow with much confidence. For the people that get to knew it earlier and decided to join, to have performed two successful cycles without any negative outcomes. For every bear period that it always recovers from it, that should serve as an encouragement to invest in it that time and just imagine how far they’ve come today. Some at the time of investing till now, whether in the bull or bear market, they’ll always be in profit. That’s one advantage which some early adopters of bitcoin had over those that came later.