One of them is the gold rally which was usually bullish for bitcoin. Usually when gold went up, bitcoin bull run followed a few months later.
Is this really true? I have also seen some analysis, charts showing that bitcoin growth usually follows gold and has a lag of 100 to 120 days. But I doubt it because gold and bitcoin are not the same, gold is a safe haven while bitcoin is still considered a speculative asset.
According to my research, the recent recovery in bitcoin is due to more optimistic news on tariffs, the Fed is likely to lower interest rates and that will cause the DXY to weaken, and the weakness in DXY is a good sign for speculative assets like bitcoin. Bitcoin has recovered better than stocks simply because it is more volatile and stocks have been hit harder by the tariff war.
The correlation between bitcoin and stocks is greater than the correlation between bitcoin and gold.
In general it works like this:
Gold goes up when the USD goes down in value. People usually go into gold when they fear the monetary policy is failing somehow.
The initial stage is people selling stocks and moving to fiat and then to hard assets if the fear remains. That's why at first you see a selloff in stocks and then a drop in fiat value when people decide holding fiat is too risky and it's time to get ready for a longer winter.
Yes, bitcoin used to be considered a penny stock, but it matures. At first it was called a ponzi scheme, then treated like a volatile penny stock, then a risk on asset, alongside nvidia, meta and other tech companies, finally it's slowly building its image as digital gold. It takes time but we're getting there.
One thing you can be sure of is that they will have to print money and that will eventually pump all stocks and hard assets. That's why gold is already accounting for that and reaching new highs and that's why large banks are buying bitcoin or stocks of companies that hold bitcoin. For instance, Switzerland bought $150m of MSTR stock.