How to Solve Bitcoin’s Upcoming Crisis: Halvings and Liquidity Collapse
Introduction
Bitcoin was designed as a deflationary currency with a strict emission schedule. Every ~4 years, a “halving” takes place — the block reward is cut in half. This feature was seen as a growth engine by limiting supply. But with each new halving, it’s becoming increasingly clear: the model is losing its effectiveness and approaching a systemic crisis.

What happened after the 2024 halving?
On April 20, 2024, the block reward dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. In theory, if supply is halved and demand remains the same, the price should double. In practice, that didn’t happen:

Price rose only ~43% (from ~$63,800 to ~$95,000)

Miner revenue in USD declined, despite price growth

The cost of mining 1 BTC increased to ~$82,000

Profitability plummeted, and weaker miners began capitulating

Why halvings are no longer working
Every halving now demands a doubling of price to keep the ecosystem in balance. But:

Such growth is unsustainable — total market cap would become unrealistic

Emission cuts lead to a liquidity shortage on the market

Lower liquidity slows down turnover and reduces investment activity

The market becomes rigid and vulnerable to stagnation

Halvings don’t bring stability — they impose an ever-increasing demand for exponential growth, turning Bitcoin’s monetary policy into a series of escalating stress tests.

Liquidity Shortage as a Systemic Threat
In classical economics, liquidity shortages lead to slower money velocity, declining investment, and ultimately, recession. Bitcoin is showing the same symptoms:

Fewer new coins → less liquidity for exchange and trade

Rising mining costs → miners forced to sell reserves, adding price pressure

New participants lose motivation to enter the network due to higher costs and lower margins

False Expectations: Transaction Fees and Cost Reduction
Transaction fees won’t save post-halving economics.
To replace the diminishing block reward, either transaction fees must double, or the number of transactions must double — which is highly unlikely given current network throughput.

Mining costs cannot keep dropping every four years.
That belief is an outdated assumption from the early 2010s. Today, growing difficulty and energy costs make consistent cost reduction technically impossible.

Both assumptions — that fees will rise endlessly or that mining will get cheaper — are detached from reality.

What Must Be Rethought
Rigid halvings must go. The hard-coded drop in emissions should be replaced by a smoother transition.

Liquidity must be market-responsive, not bound to a calendar.

Stabilizing mechanisms are needed — as in macroeconomics: liquidity targeting, adaptive difficulty, response to drops in velocity.

Conclusion
Bitcoin is approaching a critical point: the hard-emission model that worked during early growth may now lead to stagnation and fragility. To maintain leadership in the crypto space, Bitcoin must evolve. Not by rejecting its foundations, but by redesigning its monetary model to match the maturity of its ecosystem and the realities of liquidity.

This is not a call for central planning, but a challenge: to create automatic, flexible, and decentralized regulation. Otherwise, the next halving may not be a growth catalyst — but a breaking point.

If you have ideas on how Bitcoin could adapt to the realities of a mature market — join the discussion. The solution may not lie in abolishing halvings, but in developing a new class of rules: not rigid, but rational.