I feel like it's the end of cycles as we knew them. People thought it's going to be a 4 year cycle forever where there's 2 years of bear market, 1 year of flatlining and 1 year of bull followed by an altcoin cycle.
Somewhat agree. In reality the past cyclic bear markets only lasted for more or less 1 year down to the bottom, even when the first bull market year (e.g. late 2022-late 2023) often felt "bearish" too and people still were afraid of a larger drop.
I can also relate to your hope of ~80% bears now being a thing of the past, but I'm still not 100% sure. I still expect a 50-60% drop this time, at least once in the cycle (compared to the previous ATH, of course).
Regarding the second half of 2025, I have previously thought it would be more bearish than bullish. But I'm reconsidering my stance.
What I expected originally was an overheating bull market in March/April/May, at least to 120-130k, and then a drop. But that didn't happen. While these months were bullish, the volatility was low. The "trigger" of the past bear markets was normally a completely overheated market phase with 30%+ or even 50%+ price growth in a single month, which led to massive profit taking.
But now, we're for some time close to ATH territory, but without any overheating. So I guess many "cyclic" investors are still not planning their exit. Some even continue buying. Expectations about an uber-bullish Q4 could also hold back the bear market. And thus it could be possible that we see some bullish months more, even a November/December rally cannot be ruled out.
Regarding altcoins, I guess they have some potential to recover the harsh losses of the last 6 months. Above all if Bitcoin stays on its current low volatility, some people will try to gamble a bit. So I'd expect a stable or slightly declining Bitcoin dominance, but not a strong "altseason" like in 2018 or 2021. These times, I think, are more or less over.