So why do you think people speculate the halving will cause price to increase?
If you claim there is nothing about Bitcoin that creates these seasons, and you go ahead to say their speculations on price increase based on halving causes the season, then where does the halving they speculate on come from?
Is the halving not a mechanism hard-coded in Bitcoin?
People speculate because that is what people do with financial instruments. When the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, people speculated that the cost of oil would go up. When a publicly traded company acquires another company, people speculate that the stock price of that company will go up. When the supply of any product is reduced, if the demand remains the same, the price will go up. This is something that happens to any other asset, not because it was hard-coded in Bitcoin.
The halving was hard-coded, but the 4-year cycle was not. If people don't sell in mass when Bitcoin peaks, then there will be no bear season. A time can come when so many people don't sell their bitcoin when the price peaks, it doesn't mean the price will not fall, but there won't be a bear market.
People speculate over a lot of things in Bitcoin. Right now, people are speculating about the Clarity Act. People speculated about ETFs, people speculated about Donald Trump winning the election. All these are not hard coded into Bitcoin, they are just economic behaviors and so is people's reaction to the halving.
Like I've already said, the halving is hard coded, but the 4 year cycle is not. If people don't react a certain way to it, then we won't have a cycle, but no matter how bitcoin performs, there will be a halving.
We're going in circles here my brother. I'm saying, the halving event creates the speculation, the speculation creates the cycle, and you said the exact same thing in your previous reply. In other words, if there is no halving, there won't be a cycle too, right?
You have clearly pointed out that supply and other factors surrounding an asset gives rise to speculation. It is not different from what I'm saying. A mechanism in Bitcoin is causing this 4 years cycle, it's like a ripple effect, casualty (cause-and-effect).
Anyway, these are just hypothetical situations. And besides, we're saying the same thing in a roundabout way.
