Nobody knows, but we can only guess. What that can not be guessed but accurate is where the price is going after a very long time like 2 or 3 years from now. The ETF inflow will grow higher.

Bitcoin is having high resistance around $76000. Bitcoin outflow around that price will be minimal or there would be inflow around the price again.

But if bitcoin continues to get to the price, it is very possible there would be more outflow for the short period of time.

Okay, so we don't know anything, because we don't know what's going to happen next week.


I have no idea, but as I said in another thread yesterday, I've been pretty pessimistic all year, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw even lower lows than we've seen so far. I say this hoping I'm wrong, of course, and that the price will go to $100,000 and beyond, but I don't think that's the most likely scenario.

It's just market fluctuations.

Majority of those who decide to go the centralized route and put their money into [centralized] ETF instead of just buying bitcoin directly like a normal person are not looking for keeping their money parked in bitcoin; they don't believe in bitcoin, maybe they don't even like it!
Instead they are fans of the centralized system and fans of fiat. To them a bitcoin ETF is just a way to make some quick [fiat] profit so that they can move on to the next fiat related thing.

Therefore when the bitcoin price is rising, they get into an ETF to get that "exposure" and make a profit. When the rise slows down, they quickly get out and move their capital into some other centralized crap to make more [fiat] profit.

These movements are not indicating anything at all. They are reactions to the market movements that take place in the real bitcoin market.

This is indeed a fluctuation, but it made me think about something, namely the topic of ETF outflows: We can see how many different hacks are currently taking place using artificial intelligence and social engineering, and recently I started thinking that perhaps the next target for hackers will be the custodial services of Bitcoin ETFs. And realizing this, those ETF investors (who neglected their own custody) decided to withdraw their assets from these companies. And it’s quite likely that if they haven’t considered any assets that are more interesting to them than Bitcoin, then perhaps they will buy it themselves and store it themselves.
You have to admit that the chance of this isn’t zero. And so there’s a chance that Bitcoin ETFs are currently experiencing outflows - but that’s because those who want to store Bitcoin now trust themselves to do so, rather than relying on an external intermediary. This theory is supported by the Bitcoin price, which hasn’t changed much.

I don't think too much about changes that affect the price in the short term, because bitcoin investors should always be prepared for what happens even when bearish will still be willing to buy. For this reason, long-term investors often do not have much action with conditions at a glance on the price of bitcoin. ETF inflows and outflows move rapidly, and manipulating market prices has become part of their standard playbook.

Yeah, maybe they don't actually believe in a completely decentralized system like Bitcoin, or they are simply concerned about the risks involved, such as losing their coins. With things like cold wallet exploits and other security risks, they might also be confused about which method is safest for storing their Bitcoin. Instead of going through all that stress, they may simply prefer investing in ETFs and getting exposure to Bitcoin without having to hold the coins directly.

I believe Bitcoin is still on its way to breaking the $86k resistance. The retracements may not last very long, as they could be gathering enough momentum for another attempt to break through and continue upward. Bitcoin still has a long way to go before reaching its previous ATH, so there could still be plenty of room for further upside.

My problem with such threads and observations is that they try to extract a "prediction" from a small price movement.

If the price falls ~6% (82k to 77k), then it is quite obvious, or at least likely, that this will also be reflected in ETF outflows. The price decrease has to come from somewhere, right? And ETF volumes are, unfortunately (for those who don't like this centralization) quite significant. The few US ETFs hold 30% as many Bitcoins (~1.3 million) as all regular exchanges (~3-4 million) together, approximately.

So I think it's difficult to extract any prediction from this. I personally would have expected a more aggressive profit taking, but this can still happen -- until now I am quite surprised how well the 77k area holds. And if this continues for weeks, both exchanges and ETFs should register inflows again if confidence on a bullish outcome would be building up.

What I find most annoying are the ones that pick different scenarios and connect them to make an analysis of why Bitcoin is moving the way it is. I've seen it a few times on the forum. They will say things like "Bitcoin's price is down because country A's inflation has risen" and many other things like that.
I know that real-world events affect the price of Bitcoin, but people act like every single Bitcoin price movement is due to a political event.
Like people can't just want to sell or buy Bitcoin

I feel like people overanalyse things. They seem to act like they know the reason for everything without taking time to analyse actual data before they come to a conclusion.
During the US-Iran war, it was like the only thing that had ever affected Bitcoin's price was the war. Every single price movement gets attributed to the war.

With people who don't want to actually invest and don't care to secure their own non custodial wallets, Bitcoin Spot ETFs are their favorite choices because there are entities (Spot ETFs, and custodians like Coinbase) to secure bitcoins for them. They simply spend money, and wait for good news from the market to take profit, the remaining things will be all done by Coinbase and Spot ETFs.

Like using all services, they must pay fees for Bitcoin Spot ETFs from 0.19% to 0.30%
https://blockworks.com/analytics/bitcoin-etf/tracker

I partly agree with this use of ETFs because the true nature of Bitcoin is to be an alternative payment method to fiat currency. It remains true that anything that leads to adoption is good for inflows into Bitcoin, but it must also be said that this is a vast number of people who do not have control over their private keys but hold a derivative contract.
Obviously, as a community, we cannot force people to avoid using Bitcoin for these products, but it is also true that we, at the very least, should encourage people not to purchase these derivates.