In the big picture, Bitcoin is not affected by other markets at all. The only thing that can significantly affect bitcoin is whatever happens to the global economy at a large scale. Like the COVID recession which was global and pushed bitcoin price down significantly.
I don't follow US housing market to know what is going on in it but based on what you described, I don't see anything significant that can affect bitcoin in a meaningful way. If it were some sort of housing crisis (not just a simple "imbalance") it would have been a different story.
As for interest rates, the recent rate rise to 5% on the 10 year treasury notes is a negative sign which is big enough that indicate a worsening recession in the US. The recession side can negatively affect bitcoin but the fact that this is also lowering the faith in the US dollar and the fact that dedollarisation is moving forward faster than even (specially after the recent BRICS meeting) that can be a significantly positive sign.
Yea its going to be something global which will be the Bitcoin markets next big catalyst.
I think the OP is onto something though, meaning its going to be US related or something global which
will be triggered by the US. The channels we listen to are all saying it - that the US ecomony is looking
like its going to fail. It may not be the housing sector as the OP suggests, it will probably be the artificial
economy based around the petro dollar.
I don't want to dwell in hypothesis because there is no direct correlation between Bitcoin and the housing market of the US. Housing may affect the US policy to a great extent but that is not enough to say that it can catalyze the Bitcoin market directly.
Additionally, it is not everything that has a direct impact on Bitcoin market price performance when we compare them together, this is why the entire bitcoin network does not stand dependent of any policy or centralized system or performance, everything about bitcoin is indicating an entirely independent network with the blockchain and what influences the price most is based on its demand and supply, well every other thing fall under just a mere reaction that could be insignificantly observed over its market value.
Of course - the Bitcoin network is independent/decentralised but the market is a different matter altogether,
it reacts to our emotions and our relationship with FIAT, and our emotions and reatcions to global economic trends
